Adopted Adolescents' Preoccupation With Adoption: The Impact on Adoptive Family Relationships

This study examines the relationship between the intensity of adopted adolescents' thinking about their adoptions and their adoptive family relationships. Participants included 135 adopted adolescents involved in an ongoing study of openness in adoption. Adolescents who reported high levels of preoccupation with adoption reported greater alienation from their adoptive fathers than did adolescents who reported moderate or low levels of preoccupation. Adolescents with extremely high levels of preoccupation reported significantly higher levels of alienation and significantly lower levels of trust for their adoptive mothers and fathers than adolescents with extremely low levels of preoccupation. These findings, along with the divergences between adolescents' perceptions of dyadic and overall family relationships, are discussed in terms of how they relate to the process of adoptive identity exploration.     

The debate over low fertility in the popular press: A cross-national comparison, 1998–1999

Aspects of below-replacement fertility have long been debated among professional demographers. This paper describes the corresponding popular debate about low fertility by analyzing 437 newspaper and magazine articles from eleven developed countries during 1998 and 1999. Despite the diversity in the national debates due to different socioeconomic, political and demographic backgrounds, our study finds important commonalties in the way low fertility is debated: First, countries emphasize consequences and potential interventions rather than causes in their popular debates over low fertility. Second, our study reveals that the popular press discusses low fertility as a serious concern with mostly negative implications, despite the fact that many of the causes of low fertility are associated with social and economic progress. Third, the variety of issues and perspectives revealed in the popular debate, while cohesive in general ways, invites a role for demographers in informing an accurate public discussion of low fertility, which will help form the most appropriate policy outcomes.     

Book reviews

Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives. 2001. Edited by John B. Caster-Line. National Research Council, Committee on Population. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Pp. xi + 271. N.p.g. ISBN: 0-309-07610-2. Available online at http://www.nap.edu/books/0309076102/html/Rl.html The Explanatory Power of Models. 2002. Edited by Robert Franck. Boston/Dordrecht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Pp. x + 310. ￡74.00. ISBN: 1-4020-0867-8. Communism, Health and Lifestyle. The Paradox of Mortality Transition in Albania, 1950-1990. 2001. By Arjan Gjon?a. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. Pp. ix + 227. US$69.95. ISBN: 0-313-31586-8. Historical Studies in Mortality Decline. 2002. By William H. Hubbard, Kari Pitk?nen, Jürgen Schlumbohm, S?lvi Sogner, Gunnar Thorvaldsen, and Frans van Poppel. Oslo: Novus Forlag. Pp. 134. ISBN: 82-7099-360-3. Population and Society in Western European Port-Cities. 2002. Edited by Richard Lawton and Robert Lee. Liverpool: Liverpool University Press. Pp. xx + 385. ￡18.95. ISBN: 0-85323-907-X. The Changing Face of Home: The Transnational Lives of the Second Generation. 2003. Edited by Peggy Levitt and Mary C. Waters. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Pp. xi + 408. US$39.95. ISBN: 0-87154-517-9. The Demography of Victorian England and Wales. 2000. By Robert Woods. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Pp. xxv + 447. ￡50.00. ISBN: 0-521-78254-6. The Life Table: Modelling Survival and Death. 2002. Edited by Guillaume Wunsch, Michel Mouchart, and Josianne Duchêne. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers (European Studies of Population, Volume 11). Pp. x + 306. ￡89.00. ISBN: 1-4020-0638-1.     

Pricing of American options in discrete time using least squares estimates with complexity penalties

Pricing of American options in discrete time is considered, where the option is allowed to be based on several underlying stocks. It is assumed that the price processes of the underlying stocks are given by Markov processes. We use the Monte Carlo approach to generate artificial sample paths of these price processes, and then we use nonparametric regression estimates to estimate from this data so-called continuation values, which are defined as mean values of the American option for given values of the underlying stocks at time t subject to the constraint that the option is not exercised at time t. As nonparametric regression estimates we use least squares estimates with complexity penalties, which include as special cases least squares spline estimates, least squares neural networks, smoothing splines and orthogonal series estimates. General results concerning rate of convergence are presented and applied to derive results for the special cases mentioned above. Furthermore the pricing of American options is illustrated by simulated data.     

Birth month,school graduation,and the timing of births and marriages

We investigated the timing of fertility and marriage in Sweden using exogenous variation in the age at school graduation that results from differences in birth month. Our analysis found that the difference of 11 months in the age at leaving school between women who were born in two consecutive months, December and January, implies a delay in the age at first birth of 4.9 months. This effect of delayed graduation also persists for the timing of second births and first marriages, but it does not affect completed fertility or the overall probability of marriage before age 45. These results suggest the existence of a relatively rigid sequencing of demographic events in early adulthood, and the age at graduation from school emerges as an important factor in determining the timing--but not the quantum--of familyformation. In addition, these effects point to a potentially important influence of social age, defined by an individual's school cohort, instead of biological age. The relevance of social age is likely due to social interactions and peer-group influences exerted by individuals who are in the same school cohort but are not necessarily of the same age.     

The Popular Debate about Low Fertility: An Analysis of the German Press, 1993–2001

Despite increasing research on the causes, consequences, and measurement of low fertility, questions about the nature and the extent of popular concerns over low fertility have yielded more speculation than examination. We address this gap in the literature through an analysis of 328 German newspaper and news magazine articles mentioning low fertility from 1993 to 2001. Our analysis reveals a paradox: while fertility rates have remained well below replacement levels and governmental discussions of low fertility have increased, discussion of low fertility as a concern in and of itself has been small and unchanging over time. We find this to be true because the problem of low fertility is rarely invoked as a concern in its own right, but is most often used as a tool in the popular debate to discuss other problems – political, economic, and cultural.     

Social networks and changes in contraceptive use over time: evidence from a longitudinal study in rural Kenya

The impacts of social networks on changes in contraception in rural Kenya are investigated using special data from a longitudinal household survey. An analytic model, informed by detailed knowledge of the setting, yielded estimates that indicate that (1) social networks have substantial effects even after unobserved factors (e.g., homophily) that may determine social networks are controlled; (2) controlling for these unobserved factors may substantially alter the estimated effects of networks (these controls were not used in previous studies); (3) network effects are important for both men and women; and (4) network effects are nonlinear and asymmetric, suggesting that networks provide information primarily through social learning, rather than by exerting social influence.