Membranes, mitochondria and amoebae: shape models

Most real-world shapes and images are characterized by high variability- they are not rigid, like crystals, for example—but they are strongly structured. Therefore, a fundamental task in the understanding and analysis of such image ensembles is the construction of models that incorporate both variability and structure in a mathematically precise way. The global shape models introduced in Grenander's general pattern theory are intended to do this. In this paper, we describe the representation of two-dimensional mitochondria and membranes in electron microscope photographs, and three-dimensional amoebae in optical sectioning microscopy. There are three kinds of variability to all of these patterns, which these representations accommodate. The first is the variability in shape and viewing orientation. For this, the typical structure is represented via linear, circular and spherical templates, with the variability accomodated via the application of transformations applied to the templates. The transformations form groups: scale, rotation and translation. They are locally applied throughout the continuum and of high dimension. The second is the textural variability; the inside and outside of these basic shapes are subject to random variation, as well as sensor noise. For this, statistical sensor models and Markov random field texture models are used to connect the constituent structures of the shapes to the measured data. The third variability type is associated with the fact that each scene is made up of a variable number of shapes; this number is not assumed to be known a priori. Each scene has a variable number of parameters encoding the transformations of the templates appropriate for that scene. For this, a single posterior distribution is defined over the countable union of spaces representing models of varying numbers of shapes. Bayesian inference is performed via computation of the conditional expectation of the parametrically defined shapes under the posterior. These conditional mean estimates are generated using jump-diffusion processes. Results for membranes, mitochondria and amoebae are shown.     

The impact of unionization,right-to-work laws,and female labor force participation on earnings inequality across states

This study examines the effect of unionization, right-to-work laws, and participation of women in the labor force on income inequality. Two distinct models are developed using 1970 and 1980 census data on the 50 states in the U.S. First, an income inequality model is specified as a beta distribution of the second kind to estimate Gini measures of income inequality. Second, these Gini estimates are used in a simultaneous equations model. The 1970 results indicate that higher unionization rates decreased inequality while right-to-work laws increased inequality. In 1980, the measure of inequality was lower in states with higher female labor force participation. We thank an unknown referee and the editor for comments and criticisms that greatly improved the paper. The usual caveat applies.     

Sources of drug information among adolescent students

A sample of 1023 eighth and tenth grade students in small to medium-sized central Texas school districts was assessed to determine the amount of information they receive from ten sources about six categories of drugs. The amount of information males reported receiving about each drug category was significantly greater than what females reported, and the amount of information that eighth graders reported receiving about each drug category was significantly greater than what tenth graders reported. Television was the primary source of drug information for all categories of drugs except inhalants, for which friends and television were equally important sources. Parents and printed media (magazines or newspapers) were of secondary importance, followed by friends and teachers. Adolescents were less likely to receive drug-related information from experience, siblings, church, doctors, and police. The reliance on the mass media for drug information in smaller school districts is a pattern which has been previously observed in larger urban districts. This consistency suggests that mass media approaches to drug education are likely to be as effective in rural areas and smaller towns as they are among urban adolescents. Implications for television programming are discussed.     

UNDERSTANDING MAIL SURVEY RESPONSE BEHAVIOR A META-ANALYSIS

A meta-analysis of prior studies of techniques designed to inducemail survey response rates was conducted. Research encompassing184 effects (study outcomes) in 115 studies (articles) for 17predictors of response rate was examined. The average effectsize across all manipulations was r=.065, indicating an averageincrease of about 6.5 percent in response rates for manipulations.Effect sizes for specific predictors and two potential moderatorsof effects were examined. Results indicated that repeated contactsin the form of preliminary notification and follow-ups, appeals,inclusion of a return envelope, postage, and monetary incentives,were effective in increasing survey response rates. Significanteffect sizes for the predictors ranged from an increase in responseof 2 percent to 31 percent. Implications of the results forthe conduct of mail surveys and future research on mail surveyresponse behavior are discussed.     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.