俄罗斯外交文化传统研究

历史文化传统把一个国家、民族与其他国家和民族区分开来,让一个国家、民族在世界上具有了自己的身份识别特征。历史文化传统是解开一个国家、民族特殊发展道路之谜的钥匙。俄国外交史可以说就是一部俄国领土扩张史,也是俄国逐渐成为一个欧洲大国并开始主宰世界命运的历史。伊凡四世、彼得一世、叶卡捷琳娜二世、亚历山大一世、亚历山大二世、斯大林等都因其突出的外交成就而受到俄国人民世世代代的尊敬和爱戴。实用主义、大国外交和霸权主义曾经是俄国外交最突出的特征,俄罗斯在不同历史时期依据国家实力的强弱选择不同的外交策略,国家利益是它永恒不变的追求。     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.     

我国大城市网络约车规制存在的问题及对策

网络约车模式是一种新生事物,引起了一系列社会问题,给政府监管带来了难处.梳理各大城市出台的网络约车运营管理暂行办法及其网约车发展中出现的一系列问题,分析提出针对当前网络约车行业规制发展的相关对策.     

中国现代作家书信集及其研究

中国现代作家书信集的出版在1930年代、1980至1990年代呈现两次高潮.研究这些书信集应关注书信入集带来的文类属性和价值的变化.对作家书信集的研究有几种不同的角度,而对其进行朴学式研究将是一种更重要的研究.     

北朝《李骞墓志》考释

李骞是北朝赵郡李氏代表人物之一。近年来《李骞墓志》的发现,为研究其生平以及赵郡李氏的有关问题提供了新史料。结合墓志和相关史料可知,李骞原名希义,字景让,后改名骞,再改字希义;李骞家族原来聚居平棘,后来迁居柏仁;李骞庶长兄长钧未被记入《李骞墓志》,李骞长女宝信当为高延宗妃;李骞生于北魏宣武帝永平元年(公元508年),卒于东魏孝静帝武定七年(公元549年),曾在北魏和东魏担任多种官职;《李骞墓志》出土于河北省赞皇县。     

分数阶长短波方程的整体光滑解

本文研究了分数阶长短波方程组的周期初边值问题,运用一致先验估计和Galerkin方法证明了分数阶长短波方程整体光滑解的存在性和唯一性.     

中国副省级以上城市人口可持续发展研究

基于2000年与2010年"五普"与"六普"的汇总数据,本文借鉴区位商及人口可持续发展指数的计算方法,从教育水平、第三产业比重、劳动年龄人口比重和跨省流动人口比重4个维度计算19个城市(4个直辖市和15个副省级城市)的人口可持续发展指数,并对其发展状况的变动进行比较分析,得出副省级以上城市人口可持续发展指数呈下降趋势,且质量的中心性也相对下降.对此,本文从培养和吸引更多具有创造力的高素质人力资本的角度提出相关政策建议,以促进人口的可持续发展.     

用工业CT技术测量储层岩芯饱和度分布

认识储层岩石中含油饱和度及饱和度分布,对驱替机理的深入研究是非常重要的。为了搞清储层岩石在驱替过程中的饱和度分布情况,应用工业CT技术,提出了一种储层含油岩芯被驱替后的饱和度分布的CT密度差测量方法。在岩样的同一断面,分别对干岩样、饱和岩样及在驱替后的岩样进行CT扫描,重建相应的断层图象,测量所建图象的灰度值,计算出相应的密度值,用密度差法计算出饱和度及其分布值。在γ射线工业CT机“CD-300BG”上对某油田岩样进行了实际测量,获得的结果说明,采用CT密度差法测量饱和度分布是有效的。该方法与常规驱替法相比较,具有快速、精度高、无损岩样和能模拟地层状态测量等特点,是油田开发、油藏描述和地层评价的一种新的有效方法。     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

构建舟山群岛新区水资源安全保障体系研究

"新区发展水为先",这是舟山发展一贯经验的科学总结。水资源直接影响着舟山群岛新区建设的速度和质量,关系到人民生活水平的提高,对新区发展具有特殊重要的意义。文章在分析舟山群岛新区水源地环境基本状况的基础上,对水资源供求趋势进行了预测和分析,并从完善有偿使用和取水许可制度、建立水资源统一管理体制,完善增加蓄水资源的引导性政策、健全可持续开发利用的激励配套措施,强化水源与供水工程网络建设、优先开发利用好当地水资源阐释了构建舟山群岛新区水资源安全保障体系的对策。