Differential equation models for statistical functions

Differential equations have been used in statistics to define functions such as probability densities. But the idea of using differential equation formulations of stochastic models has a much wider scope. The author gives several examples, including simultaneous estimation of a regression model and residual density, monotone smoothing, specification of a link function, differential equation models of data, and smoothing over complicated multidimensional domains. This paper aims to stimulate interest in this approach to functional estimation problems, rather than provide carefully worked out methods.     

Civil Commitment for Drug Dependency

In recent proposals for new legislation in New South Wales for dealing with drug-dependent persons, opinion has been sharply divided over the issues for and against civil commitment for drug abuse per se. This paper examines the situation as seen from a legal point of view.     

Effects of Group Practice of the Transcendental Meditation Program on Preventing Violent Crime in Washington,D.C.: Results of the National Demonstration Project,June--July 1993

This paper reports the results of a prospective experiment in which a group of approximately 4,000 participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi assembled in Washington, D.C., from June 7 to July 30, 1993. It was hypothesized that levels of violent crime in the District of Columbia would fall substantially during the Demonstration Project, as a result of the group's effect of increasing coherence and reducing stress in the collective consciousness of the District. A 27-member Project Review Board comprising independent scientists and leading citizens approved the research protocol and monitored the research process. Weekly crime data was derived from database records provided by the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (DCMPD), which are used in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Statistical analysis considered the effect of weather variables, daylight, historical crime trends and annual patterns in the District of Columbia, as well as trends in neighboring cities. Consistent with previous research, levels of homicides, rapes and assaults (HRA crimes) correlated with average weekly temperature. Robberies approximately followed an annually recurring cycle. Time series analysis of 1993 data, controlling for temperature, showed that HRA crimes dropped significantly during the Demonstration Project, corresponding with increases in the size of the group; the maximum decrease was 23.3% (p < 2 × 10–9) [24.6% using a longer baseline, with 1988--1993 data (p < 3 × 10–5)], coincident with the peak number of participants in the group during the final week of the assembly. When the same period in each of the five previous years was examined, no significant decreases in HRA crimes were found. Robberies did not decrease significantly. However, a model that jointly estimated the effect of the Demonstration Project on both HRA crimes and robberies showed a significant reduction in violent crimes overall of 15.6% (p = 0.0008). Further analysis showed that the effect of the coherence-creating group on reducing HRA crimes could not be accounted for by additional police staffing. The time series analysis for HRA crimes gave results that are highly robust to alternative model specifications, and showed that the effect of the group size was cumulative and persisted after the Demonstration Project ended. Also, calculation of the steady state gain based on the time series model predicted that a permanent group of 4,000 coherence-creating experts in the District would have a long-term effect of reducing HRA crimes by 48%.     

The queer periphery: sexual deviancy and the cultural understanding of space

The association of normative sexuality with the geographical center and sexual deviancy with the geographical periphery represents a pattern of thinking that has stayed with us in different guises throughout history. The article traces this pattern and some of its complex ramifications from the ancient Greeks to the present.     

Providing Spatial Data for Secondary Analysis: Issues and Current Practices Relating to Confidentiality

Spatially explicit data pose a series of opportunities and challenges for all the actors involved in providing data for long-term preservation and secondary analysis—the data producer, the data archive, and the data user. We report on opportunities and challenges for each of the three players, and then turn to a summary of current thinking about how best to prepare, archive, disseminate, and make use of social science data that have spatially explicit identification. The core issue that runs through the paper is the risk of the disclosure of the identity of respondents. If we know where they live, where they work, or where they own property, it is possible to find out who they are. Those involved in collecting, archiving, and using data need to be aware of the risks of disclosure and become familiar with best practices to avoid disclosures that will be harmful to respondents.

MANAGING ACADEMIC INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH PROJECTS*

This field study provides variables that can be used by practitioners as action levers and by future researchers as the basis for theoretical development. Conclusions from relevant literature and findings from interviews with interdisciplinary research management identified forty variables that were viewed as important to interdisciplinary research project success. After adjusting the data for reliability attenuation, these variables were further analyzed to identify the best prediction equation. The findings suggested that project age or the longevity of the project and open discussion of disagreements were the best predictors of performance.     

永远的“希腊小庙”——英译《边城》序

曾经因为沈从文的乡村中国的故事如此贴近乡下人的生活及其重要场景,以至一本1947年的沈从文英译选集就被题名为<中国土地>.伴随着沈从文的文学声名,那片土地在1949年的共产主义革命中被推翻了.30年后,当激进的毛思想终结之时,中国的批评家们重新发现了沈从文.他们称他为唯一的中国战前本土文学或乡土文学流派的代表性作家,也许还是奠基者.1980年代将乡土主题和轻柔风格相结合的沈从文式的写作手法,随中国后毛时代的文艺复兴而颇受追捧.     

Differentiated leader–member exchange,justice climate,and performance: Main and interactive effects

Leaders form different quality leader–member exchange (LMX) relationships with their subordinates. This variable treatment termed LMX differentiation can have negative effects on individuals' behavior and attitudes. In this study, we examined the cross-level main effect of justice climate on task performance and the moderating role of justice climate on the relationship between LMX differentiation and task performance. We tested these two hypotheses using a field study of 90 subordinates nested under 27 supervisors. Procedural justice climate, not distributive justice climate, was found to positively influence subordinate task performance. Further, distributive justice climate, not procedural justice climate, was found to moderate the LMX differentiation–task performance relationship; such that the relationship was positive when distributive justice climate was high and negative when distributive justice climate was low. Findings and future directions are discussed.     

A Comparative Pharmacokinetic Estimate of Mercury in U.S. Infants Following Yearly Exposures to Inactivated Influenza Vaccines Containing Thimerosal

The use of thimerosal preservative in childhood vaccines has been largely eliminated over the past decade in the United States because vaccines have been reformulated in single‐dose vials that do not require preservative. An exception is the inactivated influenza vaccines, which are formulated in both multidose vials requiring preservative and preservative‐free single‐dose vials. As part of an ongoing evaluation by USFDA of the safety of biologics throughout their lifecycle, the infant body burden of mercury following scheduled exposures to thimerosal preservative in inactivated influenza vaccines in the United States was estimated and compared to the infant body burden of mercury following daily exposures to dietary methylmercury at the reference dose established by the USEPA. Body burdens were estimated using kinetic parameters derived from experiments conducted in infant monkeys that were exposed episodically to thimerosal or MeHg at identical doses. We found that the body burden of mercury (AUC) in infants (including low birth weight) over the first 4.5 years of life following yearly exposures to thimerosal was two orders of magnitude lower than that estimated for exposures to the lowest regulatory threshold for MeHg over the same time period. In addition, peak body burdens of mercury following episodic exposures to thimerosal in this worst‐case analysis did not exceed the corresponding safe body burden of mercury from methylmercury at any time, even for low‐birth‐weight infants. Our pharmacokinetic analysis supports the acknowledged safety of thimerosal when used as a preservative at current levels in certain multidose infant vaccines in the United States.