Constrained Mortality Extrapolation to Old Age: An Empirical Assessment

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of parametric extrapolations of the death rates into old age by constraining the extrapolation model on presumed life expectancy at old age. Such a task is particularly important in cases where the data quality at old age, in particular the age exaggeration, is not sufficient for reliable mortality estimates. Our tests are based on period data from the Human Mortality Database and the use of the Horiuchi–Coale and Mitra formulas for reducing the bias of life expectancy in the open age interval. We show that extrapolation accuracy is substantially improved when the extrapolation is constrained by either the empirical life expectancy or the Horiuchi–Coale or Mitra estimates. Unconstrained extrapolations and those constrained by conventional life table estimates of life expectancy in the open age interval show substantial biases and should be avoided. Combining extrapolation with life expectancy estimates which are robust to the effects of age exaggeration appears to be a valuable way of improving mortality estimation.     

Federalism and the Implementation of Environmental Policy: Changing Trends in Canada and the United States

In a federal system of government, powers are shared by the national and sub-national units in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution. However, the process of policy implementation may differ on the basis of allocation of power and the nature of the system. Canada and the United States of America adopted federal systems of government, and faced similar pressures for implementing policies on environmental issues. Yet, the degree of success and outcome appear to be different due to variations in the strength of the respective federalist systems. An analysis of the various aspects of the federal system in the two countries reveals noticeable differences in institutional configurations, relationship between national and sub-national units, and variances in intra-institutional relations. All these have contributed to a divergence in the past, but there is an emerging trend of convergence as both the Canadian and American governments are gradually moving away from their existing patterns of policy implementation toward a new approach involving private-sector initiatives and self-enforcement with strong inclinations toward voluntarization, corporatization and marketization.     

Birds of a Feather? The Effect of Organizational Value Congruence on the Relationship Between Ministries and Quangos

In this paper we investigate differences between the organizational values of ministries and semi-autonomous executive agencies (quangos) that operate at arms’ length. Quangos are expected to operate more business-like, hence they can be expected to value profitability and other NPM-related values higher than ministries. Value incongruence between quangos and ministries is hypothesized to decrease their level of trust. These hypotheses are tested, using combined data from two Dutch surveys (n = 324). The results confirm the expectations, although different types of quangos have different degrees of value (in)congruence, which may lead to variations in the quality of the relationship with their parent ministry.     

Country-specific institutional effects on ownership: concentration and performance of continental European firms

This paper examines the effect of country-specific institutional constructs on the relationship between ownership concentration and performance for firms in the eight Continental European countries of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal. Using data from publicly-traded firms owned by other companies (i.e., blocks), measures of the quality of investor and creditor protection and the effectiveness of legal institutions are applied. Employing a hierarchical moderated multiple regression analysis, differential validity is established for the relationship between ownership concentration and performance as measured by return on shareholders’ funds. This differential effect comes from creditor protection regimes and is consistent with a relational corporate governance model based on debt finance and concentrated ownership.     

Board size and corporate performance: the missing role of board leadership structure

Different arguments have been introduced in the literature both for and against large and small board sizes. In this context, empirical evidence regarding the impact of board size on corporate performance is less conclusive, which means that further study is needed. Contrary to previous work, it is hypothesized in this study that the relationship between board size and corporate performance is more likely to be confounded by board leadership structure. Econometric analysis provided strong evidence for the applicability of this hypothesis and demonstrated that board size positively affects corporate performance in the presence of CEO non-duality (board leadership structure that is split between the roles of the CEO and the roles of the chairman). Furthermore, board size is shown to have a negative influence on corporate performance in the presence of CEO duality (board leadership structure that assigns the roles of both CEO and chairman to the same person). This conclusion is robust to the use of different measures of corporate performance, control variables and econometric models. Thus, these findings cast doubt on most of the existing evidence that posits that either large or small board size is always the best alternative to be followed in all organizations.     

Population monotonic path schemes for simple games

A path scheme for a game is composed of a path, i.e., a sequence of coalitions that is formed during the coalition formation process and a scheme, i.e., a payoff vector for each coalition in the path. A path scheme is called population monotonic if a player’s payoff does not decrease as the path coalition grows. In this study, we focus on Shapley path schemes of simple games in which for every path coalition the Shapley value of the associated subgame provides the allocation at hand. Obviously, each Shapley path scheme of a game is population monotonic if and only if the Shapley allocation scheme of the game is population monotonic in the sense of Sprumont (Games Econ Behav 2:378–394, 1990). We prove that a simple game allows for population monotonic Shapley path schemes if and only if the game is balanced. Moreover, the Shapley path scheme of a specific path is population monotonic if and only if the first winning coalition that is formed along the path contains every minimal winning coalition. We also show that each Shapley path scheme of a simple game is population monotonic if and only if the set of veto players of the game is a winning coalition. Extensions of these results to other efficient probabilistic values are discussed.     

Hierarchical linear modeling as an example for measuring change over time in a leadership development evaluation context

One of the difficulties in evaluating leadership development is measuring whether and how people change over the time period of the leadership development initiative. Even when change over time is an inherent part of the design and evaluation of leadership development, events may occur outside of the control of evaluators that limit the effectiveness of adequately and accurately assessing change over time. With data from a leadership development initiative designed to account for change over time, this article suggests hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) as a multilevel methodological technique to assess change over time in a leadership development context. This article will use real change over time data from a leadership development initiative and discuss the logic and rationale of HLM. We use HLM as an example of a multilevel methodological tool to investigate typical change over time questions in leadership development evaluation.     

Simple methods for evaluating and comparing binary experiments

We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization is used for Bayesian belief updates and for the equivalent comparison of binary experiments. In contrast to the standard parametrization of a binary information source in terms of its specificity and its sensitivity, one of the two confidence parameters is sufficient for a Bayesian belief update conditional on a signal realization. We introduce a confidence-augmented receiver operating characteristic for comparisons of binary experiments for a class of “balanced” decision problems, relative to which the confidence order offers a higher resolution than Blackwell’s informativeness order.

Where observation is concerned, Chance favors only the prepared mind. —Louis Pasteur (1822–1895).

     

Delivery of Devolve Social Services: Its Contributions to the Socio-economic Conditions of Women in Columbio Sultan Kudarat

This is an evaluative study on the delivery of devolved programs in health, agriculture and social welfare. It aimed to identify the major devolved programs/projects implemented by the LGU of Columbio, Sultan Kudarat; the responsiveness of the actual delivery of devolve services in terms of human resources, facilities and fund allocation; the status of devolve services implemented if it was effective and efficient; and the inadequacies encountered. The “expose facto” method of research was used. There were 49 implementers and 132 beneficiaries of the various devolved programs. There were 181 total respondents. A four-part questionnaire was constructed and the gathered data were supplemented by information extracted through interviews with Key Informants, Focus Group Discussions and document analysis. There were three departments implementing the devolved social services programs such as the Municipal Health Office with 6 devolved health programs; the Municipal Agriculturist Office with 6 devolved agricultural projects; and the Municipal Social Welfare and Development Office with 7 devolved social welfare programs. The respondents rated the implementation of devolve services in health, agriculture and social welfare programs between rank 5 to 9 for the aspects of human resources, facilities and fund allocations. The respondents assessed the implementation of devolved programs as Very Efficient and Most Responsive programs to the needs of the people specially the children, youths and women. The study also found some inadequacies observed during the implementation of devolved social services programs which were Agreed by the majority of the respondents. These findings implied that the implementation of various devolved social services for several years has made a significant difference in the lives of the people of the Municipality of Columbio, Sultan Kudarat, the Local Government of Columbio and program implementers with their commitment and solidarity to serve the people especially the marginalized is a manifestation of their unselfish dedication to uplift the socio-economic condition and well-being of the people. Hence, continuing projects should further be strengthened and supported to ensure the sustainability of the projects even if the support of different institutions has been terminated.