试论我国物流企业发展战略联盟的必要性

根据现代物流的发展趋势以及我国物流企业的发展现状 ,通过对几种物流企业扩张方式的比较分析 ,得出我国物流企业发展战略联盟的必要性     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

关于大都市灾害管理之研究——以日本大都市灾害管理为中心

本文以日本政府及东京等大城市灾害管理政策、行政体制及实例为对象,分析研究了大城市在自然灾害管理中所应注意的问题和经验教训,为大城市的灾害管理提供借鉴.     

中美陪审制度比较研究

通过中美陪审制度在历史、文化传统方面的比较,找出陪审制度发挥不同作用的根源是文章的主旨。美国陪审制深受个人主义文化传统的影响,弥补了法律形式合理性的缺陷,而中国陪审制由于缺乏陪审所需要的历史文化传统和相应的制度,不能有效发挥作用。     

改革开放以来的中国维吾尔族研究

改革开放以来中国维吾尔族研究,无论是著作的出版,还是论文的发表,古籍、资料的搜集整理研究,都是前所未有的。目前在对中国维吾尔族研究方面,新的研究领域不断开拓,科研队伍业已稳定,但要使维吾尔族研究不断创新、持续发展,还需不懈地努力。     

景颇族居住环境及文化分析

影响居住环境的有地理和人文两大因素。该文在分析景颇族居住环境的基础上 ,通过对组成景颇族居住环境的地貌、植物、建筑、小品、装饰、民族风情广场等要素的特色进一步地分析 ,探讨了景颇族文化的内涵。尝试为多元化的现代园林设计提供富有民族特色的素材。     

Generalized quasi-likelihood

The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations. The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results. This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University.     

创作灵感的新解读

灵感与高峰体验是紧密联系的,高峰体验可以把人带入一种澄明空灵的虚静状态。"虚静"与佛教的"参禅"相似,可澄清致远,从心底抒写。高峰体验不是哪一个人的专利,它在每一个人身上都可发生。要善于抓住,否则一闪即逝。     

在万能工具显微镜上测量齿轮截面整体误差的研究

本文论述在万能工具显微镜上测量渐开圆柱齿轮截面整体误差的测量原理、测量方法和数据处理过程,并给出了测量实例。     

圆锥轴受扭时静、动力的传递矩阵法求解

本文提出了圆锥轴受扭时静、动力的传递矩阵。该方法简便实用,适于工程技术人员在微机上应用。