Diagnostics for quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models (QLNMs) are an extension of generalized linear model and include a widen class of models as special cases. This article investigates some diagnostic methods in QLNMs. An equivalency between a case-deletion model and a mean-shift outlier model in QLNM is established. Two simulation study and a real dataset are used to illustrate the proposed diagnostic methods.     

"三不朽"图赞与"速朽"《阿Q正传》的文脉勾连

张岱晚年所著《於越有明三不朽图赞》,以图像加赞辞的形式,辑录了绍兴有明一代先贤的事迹,汇成人物传记式圣贤画谱.鲁迅家藏该著作珍本,曾于1912、1913年两次补绘插图,补足跋语,周建人抄录赞文,鲁迅又两次购藏此书三册,以表达对绍兴先贤和文学前辈的敬意.本文是学界首次整理鲁迅补录手迹,赏析鲁迅唯一存世手绘圣贤人物画像,基于"三不朽"的儒教内涵,赞文体裁的文学性,鲁迅对张岱文章史著风格的传承,勾连"反圣贤"的白话小说《阿Q正传》,于此个案回溯流转的文脉深处,论证所谓"沉默期"鲁迅钞校古籍与新文学创作之间的对话关系.     

Composite quantile regression for massive datasets

Analysis of massive datasets is challenging owing to limitations of computer primary memory. Composite quantile regression (CQR) is a robust and efficient estimation method. In this paper, we extend CQR to massive datasets and propose a divide-and-conquer CQR method. The basic idea is to split the entire dataset into several blocks, applying the CQR method for data in each block, and finally combining these regression results via weighted average. The proposed approach significantly reduces the required amount of primary memory, and the resulting estimate will be as efficient as if the entire data set is analysed simultaneously. Moreover, to improve the efficiency of CQR, we propose a weighted CQR estimation approach. To achieve sparsity with high-dimensional covariates, we develop a variable selection procedure to select significant parametric components and prove the method possessing the oracle property. Both simulations and data analysis are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

大学生海岛户外体育拓展基地模式的构建——以江苏省海州湾地区为例

江苏省海州湾地区海岛资源丰富,优势明显,十分适合于海岛户外体育拓展.研究了该地区海岛体育资源特点和现状,分析了在海州湾地区构建大学生海岛户外体育拓展基地的优势,在此基础上,提出了构建大学生海岛户外体育拓展基地的模式选择.     

人工智能时代的话语悖论与结构转向

以追求智能、精准为核心的技术认知对突发社会问题的预测失灵,形塑了人工智能时代的话语悖论。此悖论体现出盲目崇尚加速的、闭合化的现代性认知结构的困窘,且揭示了晚近技术反思的谱系化与经验"二分"的双重结构观的局限性,进而使超越悖论的结构转向成为必须面对的命题。因此关键在于以突发社会问题为节点,面向日常生活,实现对"二分"的总体性统合。唯有把握日常生活在突发问题中可能产生的反转契机,合理审视智能化的技术,促使技术的精准思维融入于日常生活之中,方能为加速多变的现代科学创设总体化的良善格局。     

农村地区彝族青年婚姻困境破解的公共政策支持

当前,农村地区彝族青年的婚姻困境问题明显,形式变异的"买卖婚"在强大的社会心理支撑下普遍存在,婚姻困境中的性别差异明显,青年男女的婚姻自由受到限制,固守传统婚姻形式造成多种社会问题。破解农村地区彝族青年婚姻困境,需要给予公共政策支持的外力推动,形成解决这一问题的内生动力,并最终帮助彝族青年男女突破婚恋的物质和精神束缚,促进农村地区婚姻进步和经济社会发展。     

儿童文学经典复译研究——以《爱丽丝漫游奇境记》为例

通过对青岛市儿童文学翻译市场进行调查研究,在对《爱丽丝漫游奇境记》的大量复译本进行分析的基础上,我们发现,众多儿童文学经典复译作品在秉承初译优点、取得不同程度进步的同时,也暴露出一些问题,比较普遍的是漏译、误译和文字中英夹杂、有失规范等问题,最关键的问题在于儿童文学翻译的文学性没有质的提高,没有从根本上超越初译。我们认为,儿童文学的复译应该遵循批判性借鉴和实质性超越的原则,真正实现其存在价值。     

Housing hardship and energy insecurity among native-born and immigrant low-income families with children in the United States

The costs for rent and utilities account for the largest share of living expenses, yet these two critical dimensions of material hardship have seldom been examined concurrently in population-based studies. This paper employs multivariate statistical analysis using American Community Survey data to demonstrate the relative risk ratio of low-income renter-occupied households with children experiencing ‘rent burden', ‘energy insecurity', or a ‘double burden’ as opposed to no burden. Findings suggest that low-income households are more likely to experience these economic hardships in general but that specific groups are disproportionately burdened in different ways. For instance, whereas immigrants are more likely to experience rental burden, they are less likely to experience energy insecurity and are also spared from the double burden. In contrast, native-born African Americans are more likely than all other groups to experience the double burden. These results may be driven by the housing stock available to certain groups due to racial residential segregation, decisions regarding the quality of housing low-income householders are able to afford, as well as home-country values, such as modest living and energy conservation practices, among immigrant families. This paper also points to important policy gaps in safety net benefits related to housing and energy targeting low-income households.     

论水平扭剪应力场对大裂缝系统的控制

本文根据地质力学和岩体结构力学原理，探讨水平扭剪应力场在大裂缝系统形成、转化和分布中的重要控制作用及其物理模型．文中认为，大裂缝系统是较大的直压型裂缝网络与扭剪型裂缝网络叠加的产物，主要分布在较强的水平扭剪应力和术平直压应力复合作用的区块；水平扭剪应力场是改造和控制大裂缝网络结构异向性的最重要因素。这为研究和勘探较大的隐伏裂缝系统，提供了新的成藏模式和理论依据。     

朝核危机的最新发展态势及未来发展趋势

朝核问题的复杂性和谋求解决的困难程度关键在于朝美两个主要当事国之间的敌对关系及相互间不信任。朝核危机依然是威胁地区甚至全球安全最重要的因素之一，根据朝鲜过去多变善变的情况，六方会谈的前景依然迷雾重重，因而朝鲜半岛和东北亚局势今后将经历一段不确定时期；最大的可能性是谈，通过六方会谈机制，以外交谈判方式，和平解决朝核危机，实现半岛无核化，是解决朝核危机最理想的结果，也是六方会谈所要达到的最高目标；影响这一“最高目标”的两个因素是美国新政府有无对朝“新思维”、朝鲜有无“弃核”的意志。