Temporary Hubs for the Global Vehicle Supply Chain in Humanitarian Operations

We model the global vehicle supply chain of an International Humanitarian Organization (IHO) with a dynamic hub location model across monthly periods. We use actual vehicle data from the International Federation of the Red Cross to feed our model and provide insights into IHO secondary support demand. We find that secondary support demand for items such as vehicles is different from primary beneficiary demand for items such as water and food. When considering disaster response and development program demand simultaneously (disaster cycle management), our results illustrate that keeping a lean centralized hub configuration with an option for temporary hubs in mega disaster locations can reduce overall supply chain costs over a long time horizon. We also show that it is possible to structure a supply chain to take operational advantage of earmarked funding. This research lays the groundwork for using optimization models to analyze disaster cycle management.     

Challenges and Opportunities for Statistics in the Next 25 Years

Beginning with the 75th Anniversary of the American Statistical Association in 1914 and for subsequent 25-year celebrations, distinguished members of the association have addressed the future of statistics. A four-person panel engaged in the same exercise during the 2014 Joint Statistical Meetings for the ASA's dodransbicentennial. The panel identified a variety of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for the profession in the next quarter of a century. This article highlights some of the discussion that took place.     

Searching for critical issues in philanthropy

Who Really Cares: America's Charity Divide—Who Gives, Who Doesn't, and Why It Matters, by Arthur C. Brooks. New York: Basic Books, 2006. 256 pp., $26.00 cloth, $16.95 paper. Foundations and Public Policy: The Mask of Pluralism, by Joan Roelofs. Albany: State University of New York Press, 2003. 270 pp., $29.95 paper. The Foundation: A Great American Secret, by Joel Fleishman. New York: PublicAffairs, 2007. 384 pp., $27.95 cloth. The Billionaire Who Wasn't: How Chuck Feeney Secretly Made and Gave Away a Fortune, by Conor O'Clery. New York: PublicAffairs, 2007. 352 pp., $26.95 cloth.     

Disease clusters: should they be investigated, and, if so, when and how?

Individual cluster reports are subject to several difficulties in interpretation. Although they rarely lead to new aetiological insights, a public health response to delineate the size and extent of any excess risk may be warranted. Further investigation, where merited, should usually include an examination of data for different areas and/or different time periods. A statistical evaluation of disease clusters is often secondary to a detailed appreciation of issues such as the availability and quality of data, confounding and bias in the selection of areas for study.     

Testing Covariate Effects in Aalen's Linear Hazard Model

The performance of tests in Aalen's linear regression model is studied using asymptotic power calculations and stochastic simulation. Aalen's original least squares test is compared to two modifications: a weighted least squares test with correct weights and a test where the variance is re-estimated under the null hypothesis. The test with re-estimated variance provides the highest power of the tests for the setting of this paper, and the gain is substantial for covariates following a skewed distribution like the exponential. It is further shown that Aalen's choice for weight function with re-estimated variance is optimal in the one-parameter case against proportional alternatives.     

Visual sociology and sociological vision,revisited

Visual sociology has two main interests: picture-making by researchers (or their subjects) in the course of sociological fieldwork, and pictures made by social actors in the context of everyday life. Focusing on the latter interest and based in three social aspects of images—that they are produced in general societal settings and specific institutional settings, and are a kind of discursive practice—three approaches to the sociology of visual material are illustrated.     

Religiosity,nationalism and fertility in Israel

The present paper seeks to re-evaluate explanations for the apparently high level of Jewish fertility in Israel. We suggest that previous explanations, based on ethnic origin or religiosity, are sociologically incomplete, and substitute well established empirical correlational associations for theoretically grounded explanations. We argue that Israel's high fertility stems, directly, from the form and salience of nationalist sentiments in the Israeliconscience collective, which in turn derives from Israel's special position in the Middle East and in the world-economy. Using voting returns from Israel's proportional vote elections, we classify census statistical areas by religiosity and their support for radical nationalist parties. We show that area-level fertility is a function of nationalist support and the area standard of living, and that once these are controlled the effect of religiosity is insignificant. We therefore conclude that the statistical association between fertility and religiosity in Israel is spurious, and that much of the religiosity recorded in fertility surveys is an expression, in consciousness and in the mode of daily living, of a strongly felt nationalist sentiment.     

Psychological research on child witnesses in sexual abuse cases: Fine answers to mostly wrong questions

Past research on the accuracy of children's testimony has shown that questions' wording and interview context explain some of the variance in children's answers to questions, but does not give answers regarding children's reasons for lying when asked questions about past events. This article reviews research done on children's testimony and suggests that researchers should move beyond the domiant paradigms associated with comparison of one group of children with another on veracity and address the central issue of when and/or why children lie. Suggestions for future directions in research on children as witnesses are presented.