Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

The Value of Information in Decision‐Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced‐based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5–21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria‐transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.     

What are Research Expectations? A Comparative Study of Different Academic Disciplines

This paper is intended to assist professors, administrators, librarians and other members of university level committees that must consider research expectations and research quality in academic fields that they lack. While this is not a problem for field experts, it is a difficulty when people are asked to make decisions in areas of study other than their own. This is commonly the case for senior university professors, librarians and administrators in regards to university wide decisions. The paper investigates this gap, through a study of 27 academic fields in 348 highly regarded universities. We find that there are almost always statistically significant differences in activity between academic fields, regardless of the metric one considers. However, it is possible to understand these differences by comparing the distribution of a known academic field to that of a field that one is not familiar with. Tables and information are provided to assist in the comparison of different fields of study on metrics such as: departmental publications and researcher level metrics of publications, citations, H-index, and total number of co-authors. The information can also be used to support decisions associated with promotion to senior posts such as endowed chairs and professorships. Information regarding specific universities and researchers are included in the data supplement.     

Female Labor Supply,Human Capital,and Welfare Reform

We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer‐term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full‐time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone‐mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.     

MANAGED COMPETITION IN HEALTH INSURANCE

Rising healthcare costs have sparked debate about the best way to provide high‐quality affordable health insurance. We discuss the potential for regulated insurance markets to outperform single‐payer public insurance. We use as an example the private Medicare plans that now provide insurance to almost a third of seniors in the United States. The evidence suggests that private plans can limit costs and potentially appeal to enrollees, and that well‐designed risk adjustment can mitigate market failures due to adverse selection. However, fostering competition between insurers, especially in smaller markets, is difficult. We discuss how future research might illuminate the relative advantages of public and private health insurance.     

Visualization for Large‐scale Gaussian Updates

In geostatistics and also in other applications in science and engineering, it is now common to perform updates on Gaussian process models with many thousands or even millions of components. These large‐scale inferences involve modelling, representational and computational challenges. We describe a visualization tool for large‐scale Gaussian updates, the ‘medal plot’. The medal plot shows the updated uncertainty at each observation location and also summarizes the sharing of information across observations, as a proxy for the sharing of information across the state vector (or latent process). As such, it reflects characteristics of both the observations and the statistical model. We illustrate with an application to assess mass trends in the Antarctic Ice Sheet, for which there are strong constraints from the observations and the physics.     

Staying strong: gender ideologies among African-American adolescents and the implications for HIV/STI prevention

This paper explores adolescents' definitions of what it means to be a man and a woman, the psycho-social context surrounding the formation of gender ideologies and their relationship to HIV/STI prevention. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with fifty African-American adolescents living in Baltimore, Maryland. Female gender ideologies included economic independence, emotional strength and caretaking. Male gender ideologies emphasized financial responsibility, toughness and sexual prowess. Findings suggest that stronger adherence to male gender ideologies related to toughness and sexual prowess is influenced by male participants' perceived inability to fulfill their primary gender role as economic providers and the importance of gaining approval from male peers in the absence of adult male role models. Stronger adherence to female gender ideologies related to emotional strength and caretaking may be linked to a heightened desire for male intimacy and tolerance of male sexual risk behavior. Implications of the gender ideologies documented and their commonalities are discussed in terms of HIV/STI prevention.     

Environmental changes to increase physical activity: perceptions of older urban ethnic-minority women

Despite the numerous benefits of physical activity, older adults continue to be more sedentary than their younger counterparts, and sedentary behavior is more prevalent among older racial and ethnic minorities than among Whites. This study used the nominal group technique (NGT) to examine participants' perceptions of what neighborhood environmental changes would encourage greater physical activity for older African American and Hispanic women. Participants age 50-75 years were recruited from 2 urban community health clinics. Nine NGT sessions (45 participants) were conducted. The women were asked what changes in their neighborhood environment would encourage them to become more physically active. Responses to the research question were tabulated, and qualitative analysis was used to identify themes and categories. Major categories were physical environment changes, safety, and activities/social support. Although the physical environment received the greatest number of points, concerns for personal safety cut across categories. Participants indicated the need for more facilities in which to be active.     

The Impact of Personal Finance Education Delivered in High School and College Courses

This study investigates the impact of personal finance education delivered in high school and college. Outcomes of interest were investment knowledge and household savings rates measured years after the financial education was delivered. A web-based survey with questions about participation in financial education, financial experiences, income and inheritances, and demographic characteristics was administered to 1,039 alumni from a large midwestern university. Participation in a college level personal finance course was associated with higher levels of investment knowledge. Experience with financial instruments appeared to explain more of the variance in both investment knowledge and savings rates. No significant relationship between taking a high school course and investment knowledge was found. Financial experiences were found to be positively associated with savings rates.