Emergy-based Simulation to Assess Brazil’s Long-term Carrying Capacity: Environment, Electricity and Population

A macroscopic mini-model of Brazil’s electrical generating capacity (BRAZELECTRIX, Brazilian Electricity Matrix) was developed using the Energy Systems Language and simulated with iconographic Extend® software to explore long-term (200 years) population carrying capacity. South American reserves of natural gas (NG) and Brazilian stream hydro-power potential were assumed as the main inputs to electric power production. Energy values (e.g., kWh, joules) for fuels, electricity and environment were transformed to solar emergy (i.e., solar equivalent joules) to simplify cross comparison with a single metric. BRAZELECTRIX was calibrated using a holistic method that used mean component life-times and conservation of material and energy for each individual unit. Validation of BRAZELECTRIX, based on historical data, gave a root mean square error of 8% for hydroelectricity and 28% for natural gas use. Investments in natural gas infrastructure (e.g., contracts, pipelines, processing plants and electric power plants) accelerated Brazil’s expansion of electrical generating capacity for a finite period, allowing the country to reach its renewable (hydro-power only) carrying capacity 100 years sooner than without (2040 vs. 2140). Brazil has a total of 560 zetta-solar equivalent joules per annum (1 Zseja = 1 ×10²¹ sej per year) of stream hydro-power potential; 170 Zseja is currently used for electricity generation. According to BRAZELECTRIX, eventually 390 Zseja will be tapped for hydroelectricity. The standard of living, as measured by annual per capita electrical solar emergy, had risen 680% from 166 tera-solar equivalent joules (Tseja) to 1130 Tseja during the 35 year period following 1965 and was predicted to increase another 75% to its maximum (1973 Tseja) in 2050. By comparison, an urbanizing state of the United States (North Carolina) had an annual per capita electrical solar emergy of 7815 Tseja in 1992, indicating that Brazil could reach a living standard, as measured by per capita electricity usage, equal to one-forth the level of United States. Macroscopic mini-models combined with emergy accounting evaluated long-term paths for Brazil’s electricity supply and related it to natural environment trade-offs to demonstrate how sustainable carrying capacity of a developing nation can be forecast.     

Worry and rumination: Explanatory roles in the relation between pain and anxiety and depressive symptoms among college students with pain

Objective: Pain affects a significant proportion of college students in the United States and has been linked to anxiety and depressive symptoms. Rumination and worry, two transdiagnostic factors linked to comorbidity, may explain the relationship between pain and mental health symptoms.

Current Study: The current study examined worry and rumination as explanatory factors in the relationship between pain and anxiety and depressive symptoms in a sample of college students with pain (n?=?1,577; 79.9% female).

Results: Results indicated that both rumination and worry explained the relationship between pain and depressive and social anxiety symptoms, while rumination alone explained the relationship between pain and anxious arousal symptoms.

Conclusion: The current study provides novel empirical evidence that worry and rumination each help explain the relationship between pain and anxiety and depressive symptoms among college students with current pain, and college students in pain may benefit from targeted psychosocial strategies aimed at decreasing worry and ruminative responses.     

Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures

In this paper, we consider the analysis of recurrent event data that examines the differences between two treatments. The outcomes that are considered in the analysis are the pre-randomisation event count and post-randomisation times to first and second events with associated cure fractions. We develop methods that allow pre-randomisation counts and two post-randomisation survival times to be jointly modelled under a Poisson process framework, assuming that outcomes are predicted by (unobserved) event rates. We apply these methods to data that examine the difference between immediate and deferred treatment policies in patients presenting with single seizures or early epilepsy. We find evidence to suggest that post-randomisation seizure rates change at randomisation and following a first seizure after randomisation. We also find that there are cure rates associated with the post-randomisation times to first and second seizures. The increase in power over standard survival techniques, offered by the joint models that we propose, resulted in more precise estimates of the treatment effect and the ability to detect interactions with covariate effects.     

Estimation of interregional migration streams from place-of-birth-by-residence data

Place-of-birth-by-residence data, tabulated by age and sex for the same areal units in two successive censuses, have been used to estimate intercensal net migration flows. However, a fuller use of the same data permits the estimation of place-to-place flows. This paper describes a method for estimating intercensal migration streams from place-of-birth-by-residence data and illustrates its application with data on the white female native population of the United States.     

Individual and contextual risks of death among race and ethnic groups in the United States

An emerging area of social science research focuses on individual-level and contextual-level determinants of black-white adult mortality differentials in the United States. However, no research on adult mortality differentials has distinguished multiple Hispanic subgroups and explored the role of nativity at both the individual and contextual levels for small geographic areas. Using the 1986-1997 National Health Interview Survey-National Death Index linked file, we examine the effects of individual and contextual factors on black-white and multiple Hispanic subgroups (Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and "other" Hispanic) differentials in adult mortality. In addition, we use a new, innovative geographic area--the very small area--as our contextual unit of analysis. We find that excess mortality risks for all race-ethnic groups considered are associated with not only individual characteristics, but also neighborhood characteristics. In addition, percent foreign born in a neighborhood is protective of Hispanic subgroup mortality for Puerto Rican, Mexican American, and "other" Hispanic adults in the 45-64 age category. These findings indicate a need for future research to examine more throughly the pathways through which neighborhood factors affect multiple Hispanic subgroup mortality and the role of nativity as a protective factor for older adult Hispanic mortality.     

Reliability and reactivity of three new functional assessment measures

This study of the reliability of three new tests of work performance considered the effect of test reactivity on measured performance. The tests are components of an employment screening battery designed for placement of applicants in automotive assembly jobs. Statistical measures of reliability were compared with a simple measure of test reactivity in a sample of 51 healthy adults. The effect of test reactivity on employment selection decisions using various cut scores was studied. Test reactivity is found to be a significant threat to reliability that must be considered when skill-based performance tests are used on a serial basis. When intended for use on a serial basis, such tests should be studied for both reliability and reactivity. In addition to reporting traditional statistical indices of reliability, an index of the reactivity should be reported.     

College men's health in practice: a multidisciplinary approach

After a needs assessment indicated that male students underutilized campus health services, the San Francisco State University Student Health Service developed a coordinated complement of outpatient health services for men. The authors review their experience in developing, implementing, operating, and evaluating this ongoing clinical service. The needs assessment and subsequent program evaluation data suggest that male students on a large, culturally diverse, urban campus would respond favorably to targeted, multidisciplinary health initiatives that incorporate the principles of health promotion and disease prevention.     

Cognitive impairment and effects on upper body strength of adults with dementia

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the association between cognitive ability and upper body muscle strength. Two sources of existing data were pooled for this examination. Thirty-eight older participants diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease or dementia (25 women, 13 men; age = 83.2 +/- 5.6 years, MMSE score = 16.75 +/- 7.04, M +/- SD) underwent an assessment of grip strength via handheld dynamometry. Multiple-regression analysis indicated that cognitive status was a significant predictor of strength and, when combined in a model with age and sex, explained 57% of the between-individuals variance in handgrip strength. The findings from this exploratory investigation suggest that dementia is associated with strength loss, a key contributor to functional disability; this further justifies efforts to investigate mechanisms responsible for this decay and to preserve muscle integrity by integrating physical activity interventions, notably, muscle strengthening, into the lifestyle of adults with dementia.     

Sport fans' impressions of gay male athletes

The purpose of this study was to examine sport fans' impressions of gay male athletes. Participants formed impressions of a fictional athlete from their favorite team after reading a short scenario about the player. The scenarios described the athlete as being gay or straight, and either becoming a distraction or not causing a distraction to the team. While males' ratings of the athlete did not significantly differ, female fans formed significantly more positive impressions of the gay male player than the straight athlete. These results are discussed in terms of the ingroup bias and the shifting culture of homophobia in sport.