Estimating Survival Curves Under Proportional Hazards Model with Covariate Measurement Errors

For the Cox proportional hazards model with additive covariate measurement errors, we propose a corrected cumulative baseline hazard estimator that reduces the bias of the na]ve Breslow estimator. We also derive corresponding modified estimators for the hazard functions and the survival functions of individuals with particular covariate values. Using a Monte Carlo technique developed by Lin et al . (1994), we construct confidence bands for such hazard and survival functions.     

王守仁的“诤友”唐伯元

唐伯元是明代潮州颇有影响的学者,他反对王阳明的“心学”之说,倾向于荀子的性恶论。本文以文献资料中有关他的哲学观点与治政为学观点的言论材料为据,力图阐述其“心”在善“性”与恶“身”之间的哲学思想和“君子正己以先人.亲贤而容众”的政治思想,以及南北互补的诗歌观、道德观。     

机械能守恒定律在转动参照系中的应用

通过引入惯性力势能的方法,给出了转动参照系的机械能守恒形式,并结合实例把机械能守恒定律应用于转动参照系中.     

桥梁梁端抬枕装置垂向动力学特性分析

随着铁路大跨度桥梁的数量的增加,实际工程中急需一种能够加强桥梁梁缝处轨道结构强度的部件,因此,中铁第一勘察设计院和中铁宝桥公司共同设计开发了桥梁梁端抬枕装置。基于ANSYS非线性瞬态动力分析原理,计算了抬枕装置在列车荷载作用在的竖向动力响应。计算结果表明,钢轨最大竖向位移为1.54 mm,抬枕装置有效地控制了钢轨在梁缝处的竖向不平顺;伸缩缝处钢轨扣件最大压力和最大上拔力分别为45.794 kN和5.135 kN,能够满足扣件强度要求;钢纵梁扣压件最大压力和最大上拔力分别为11.247 kN和23.7 kN     

Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimated effective doses in bioassay

In order to estimate the effective dose such as the 0.5 quantile _ED50${\mathrm{ED}}_{50}$ in a bioassay problem various parametric and semiparametric models have been used in the literature. If the true dose–response curve deviates significantly from the model, the estimates will generally be inconsistent. One strategy is to analyze the data making only a minimal assumption on the model, namely, that the dose–response curve is non-decreasing. In the present paper we first define an empirical dose–response curve based on the estimated response probabilities by using the “pool-adjacent-violators” (PAV) algorithm, then estimate effective doses _ED100p${\mathrm{ED}}_{100p}$ for a large range of p by taking inverse of this empirical dose–response curve. The consistency and asymptotic distribution of these estimated effective doses are obtained. The asymptotic results can be extended to the estimated effective doses proposed by Glasbey [1987. Tolerance-distribution-free analyses of quantal dose–response data. Appl. Statist. 36 (3), 251–259] and Schmoyer [1984. Sigmoidally constrained maximum likelihood estimation in quantal bioassay. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 79, 448–453] under the additional assumption that the dose–response curve is symmetric or sigmoidal. We give some simulations on constructing confidence intervals using different methods.     

Quantile Regression For Longitudinal Biomarker Data Subject to Left Censoring and Dropouts

Quantile regression is increasingly used in biomarker analysis to handle nonnormal or heteroscedastic data. However, in some biomedical studies, the biomarker data can be censored by detection limits of the bioassay or missing when the subjects drop out from the study. Inappropriate handling of these two issues leads to biased estimation results. We consider the censored quantile regression approach to account for the censoring data and apply the inverse weighting technique to adjust for dropouts. In particular, we develop a weighted estimating equation for censored quantile regression, where an individual’s contribution is weighted by the inverse probability of dropout at the given occasion. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the properties of the proposed estimators and demonstrate our method with a real data set from Genetic and Inflammatory Marker of Sepsis (GenIMS) study.     

政府与社会的双重建构:公共治理的实践命题

随着公民权利的扩张,提供公共服务已经成为民主政府兑现其对宪法与公民的承诺的基本方式。公共物品和公共服务的基本属性决定了公共治理的多中心秩序。多中心治理实践的社会网络形式以及对公民社团的依赖,决定了政府需要按照公共治理的制度逻辑和行动逻辑对自身及社会进行重新构建。对中国的现实而言,政府既需要提高制度化的能力,加强元治理,也需要推动社会力量的建设,并在治理网络中提升网络治理的能力。     

街前街后尽琼瑶——论当代港台言情小说

琼瑶以处女作<窗外>一举成名,之后的作品数量更让她荣登20世纪80年代言情小说多产女作家,并在两岸三地掀起一股琼瑶热.这股热潮一直持续到了90年代.新生代作家如席娟、言妍的出现取代了琼瑶以"纯情"系列为主体的模式,改变了琼瑶言情小说女性多数柔弱且被动的形象,将女性欲望置为主体瓜分了言情小说的市场.改变了以往琼瑶言情小说的叙述模式,使琼瑶热降温.但琼瑶开创的女性视角叙述方式,使看与被看的主体颠倒.仍成功将琼瑶的言情小说推向了一个经典的位置.     

子思五行说的来源

子思创建的五行说,为儒家的修身、教化提供了新的理论支持。子思五行说的主要来源有三:首先,原始的自然五行说在春秋战国时代的广泛流行,为子思五行说的形成提供了思维范式的借鉴;其次,孔子对《洪范》意义的阐释,从天道思想中寻求礼的支持的思路,开启了子思五行说的理论基础;最后,曾子的五行说把五种孝行与身体结合起来,直接促进了子思五行说的出现。梳理子思五行说的来源,有利于进一步彰显孔子、曾子、子思、孟子的早期儒家传承谱系。     

民国时期救灾组织用人机制与荒政社会化——对1931年国民政府救济水灾委员会的调查

民国时期政府救灾机构出现了组织社会化的新动向,为救济1931年江淮大水而成立的国民政府救济水灾委员会及其灾区派出机构(以下统称"国水委")堪为其例."国水委"在赈务人才的选聘标准、录用及考核程序等方面,形成了或倚重社会资本或倾向文化资本的上下有别的用人特点.在对赈务职员聘任的流程中,"国水委"设计出担保与督察双管齐下的风险防控机制.这种趋向于社会化和公开化的用人机制,使"国水委"选拔出了从基层到中、高层的赈灾人才梯队,从而较好地保证了救灾队伍的自律和赈务事业的效率.从这一意义上来看,"国水委"不啻为中国荒政史上一个值得深入研究的官方组织.