农业生态旅游地可持续发展评价体系研究

农业生态旅游的无序发展违背了可持续原则,构建基于目的承载力农业生态旅游可持续发展模型,兼顾了包括社会经济承载力、资源承载力和环境承载力的承载力指数和人文发展指数,推进农业生态旅游的持续发展。     

区域经济一体化背景下京津冀劳务协作分析

十二五规划提出推进京津冀区域经济一体化发展、打造首都经济圈的国家战略,在此背景下,加强京津冀劳务协作成为实现区域经济合作必不可少的人力支撑。开展京津冀劳务协作具有现实依据,既可以满足河北省与京津的双重需要,也符合农村富余劳动力转移就业的成本收益比较规律。但同时也存在着一些制约京津冀劳务协作的因素,主要有京津地区低技能要求类岗位因就业质量低下对河北省农村富余劳动力缺乏吸引力问题,河北省农村转移劳动力素质较低无法胜任高技能岗位问题,开展京津冀劳务协作的组织、人力、信息支撑不足问题等。应通过提高农村转移劳动力就业质量、加大政府和企业的培训投入、开展京津冀培训协作、设立村级劳动保障协管员、建立京津冀信息合作机制等办法解决这些障碍问题,进一步促进京津冀劳务协作,为京津冀区域经济一体化提供有力支持。     

Prediction of accrual closure date in multi-center clinical trials with discrete-time Poisson process models

In a phase III multi‐center cancer clinical trial or a large public health study, sample size is predetermined to achieve desired power, and study participants are enrolled from tens or hundreds of participating institutions. As the accrual is closing to the target size, the coordinating data center needs to project the accrual closure date on the basis of the observed accrual pattern and notify the participating sites several weeks in advance. In the past, projections were simply based on some crude assessment, and conservative measures were incorporated in order to achieve the target accrual size. This approach often resulted in excessive accrual size and subsequently unnecessary financial burden on the study sponsors. Here we proposed a discrete‐time Poisson process‐based method to estimate the accrual rate at time of projection and subsequently the trial closure date. To ensure that target size would be reached with high confidence, we also proposed a conservative method for the closure date projection. The proposed method was illustrated through the analysis of the accrual data of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project trial B‐38. The results showed that application of the proposed method could help to save considerable amount of expenditure in patient management without compromising the accrual goal in multi‐center clinical trials. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高空置率与高房价悖论在我国商品住宅市场的实证检验——基于全国省际及六大城市的面板数据

本文利用2003-2010年全国省际及六大城市的面板数据,实证检验了我国商品住宅市场是否存在高房价和高空置率并存的"双高悖论"。结果表明,我国商品住宅市场总体而言不存在此悖论,大多数省份和大城市的空置率和房价呈负相关关系,空置率变化率是实际房价变化率的格兰杰因,空置率上涨1%,实际房价下降0.5%。基于自然空置率测算结果,本文提出我国空置率的合理范围为5%-20%。     

当前高职学生党员质量分析

文章在实证调查的基础上,分析了当前高职院校学生党员的质量现状,探究了造成学生党员质量存在问题的原因。根据学生工作实际和学生党支部工作实践,应采取"三严格""三联系"和"三结合"的对策,提高学生党员发展质量。     

魏晋南北朝时期的人口数量问题及伦理对策

魏晋南北朝时期的人口问题丛生.其中,人口整体数量和国家所能控制的劳动人口数量不足的问题最为突出.为解决由此造成的社会矛盾和政治危机,统治集团高度重视人口数量问题,并提出了相关的伦理对策,主要有:"善政"伦理原则、人道主义伦理原则、社会利益伦理原则、生存条件优先原则和国家功利主义原则等.这些对策有的不仅在实施过程中收到了一定的效果,而且也丰富了中国人口思想的内容.     

会计目标两论关系探索

论文在梳理关于会计目标"决策有用观"与"受托责任观"两论关系学说已有研究成果的基础上,对两者的差异进行了比较,应用系统论,认为会计目标是会计职能的具体化,会计目标的两论与会计职能的两论之间存在对应关系。     

Multivariate functional response low‐rank regression with an application to brain imaging data

We propose a multivariate functional response low‐rank regression model with possible high‐dimensional functional responses and scalar covariates. By expanding the slope functions on a set of sieve bases, we reconstruct the basis coefficients as a matrix. To estimate these coefficients, we propose an efficient procedure using nuclear norm regularization. We also derive error bounds for our estimates and evaluate our method using simulations. We further apply our method to the Human Connectome Project neuroimaging data to predict cortical surface motor task‐evoked functional magnetic resonance imaging signals using various clinical covariates to illustrate the usefulness of our results.     

行政诉讼性质研究

行政诉讼性质是指行政诉讼这样一种客观存在的社会制度区别于其它事物的根本属性,它通过行政诉讼现象表现出来,具有稳定性、多元性和层次性的特征.行政诉讼的性质包括三个方面:行政诉讼是运用司法权解决行政争议的诉讼程序制度;行政诉讼是司法权对行政权的法律监督制度;行政诉讼是司法权对相对人权利提供的救济制度.     

刍议中国画的传承与活化

随着信息化社会的到来,伴随现代经济的发展,中国画从思维方式到审美趋向,从形式结构到内容表现都在悄然地发生着一系列变化,经典与流行的碰撞。中西文化的融合,现代对传统的传承与活化等命题不可避免地存在于中国画的创作与研究之中,如何从艺术观念、表现风格、视觉形式以及鲜活的现实性、变异性上去把握。寻找探索中国画的现代灵魂和现代结构,从而确立中国画在当代绘画艺术中的地位,就成为我们必须研究的课题。