Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Four‐Month Attentional Regulation and Its Prediction of Three‐Year Compliance

The extent to which 4‐month attentional regulation during an infant‐mother still‐face situation and 12‐month attachment security during the Strange Situation predicted rates of compliance and noncompliance during a cleanup task at 36 months was examined longitudinally in 70 infant‐mother dyads. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that infants who showed more attentional regulation during the still‐face situation with mothers later showed a higher rate of committed compliance and a lower rate of situational compliance during cleanup with mothers. Furthermore, lower levels of attentional regulation were later associated with higher rates of assertive behavior, but only for infants in an insecure attachment relationship.     

福州市社区空巢老年人健康状况调查

目的了解空巢老年人的健康现状及其影响因素,为老龄工作提供科学依据。方法2002年4~5月进行入户调查,采用分层整群抽取福州市鼓楼、台江、仓山三个区60岁及以上的社区老年人,共得到有效样本1767例,其中空巢老人696名。空巢老人躯体健康、生活自理能力(ADL)、经济状况、精神健康、社会健康5个维度的健康状况及其影响因素的调查是本次研究的主要内容。结果福州市社区空巢老年人占老年人总体比例的39%,其中男性多于女性;由logistic检验得出空巢老年人健康状况受年龄、性别、原职业、是否赞成非家庭养老方式、锻炼程度等因素的影响。结论倡导空巢老年人形成良好的生活饮食习惯与自我保健意识,加强对空巢老年人慢性病的防治,丰富老年人的精神生活、社会生活,提高对空巢老年人经济支持,完善社区为老服务,从而改善空巢老年人的健康状况。     

鞋用聚氨酯胶粘剂的改性研究

本文以二甘醇代替其它多元醇与已二酸反应合成聚酯多元醇 ,再以合适的OH/NCO比与二异氰酸酯TDI生产聚氨酯胶粘剂 .成本低 ,各项粘接性能达到或超过同类产品 .同时利用了制备乙二醇时的副产品二甘醇 ,一举数得     

叶芝诗歌创作中的东方神秘主义

叶芝诗歌以东方神秘主义的象征著称于世。玫瑰、狮身人面怪、天鹅和螺旋是叶芝诗歌中具有凸现主题意义的意象。其来源有二 ,对《旧约圣经》抒情诗风格的继承是叶芝诗歌抒情性的直接来源 ,东方神秘主义思想指导下的对中国和日本诗歌的模仿学习是叶芝诗歌抒情性的间接来源     

素质教育目标下职技高师教师素质的特性

职技高师作为培养中等职业教育师资的摇篮 ,它的培养目标应随着中等职业教育发展的需求作相应的调整 ,调整后的职技高师培养目标必然对其本身师资素质提出新的要求。对新时期职技高师师资素质的基本构成及若干特性进行了分析论证 ,以期对我校刚刚恢复招生的职技高师教育发展有所裨益。     

企业创新体系研究

首先阐述熊彼特的创新理论 ,指出其不足之处 ,继而阐明研究企业创新体系的必要性 ,最终从企业发展的命题出发 ,提出了企业创新与企业发展、企业创新与经营资源、企业创新与企业核心能力等企业创新体系研究的思路框架     

Stress at work and psychological and immunological parameters in a group of Norwegian female bank employees

This study concerned the immunological correlates of stress and work. Self reported stress, emotional state, ego-strength, and defensiveness were examined in relation to measures of cellular immunity (T-cell response to Con A and number of T4 and T8 cells) and humoral immunity (concentrations of immunoglobulins and complement components in plasma) in a group of 96 Norwegian female bank employees. The analyses showed that workload, the stress factor with the highest group mean, was associated with number of T-cells, while strain due to body posture during work was related to concentrations of IgM and C3. Further, depression was significantly correlated with IgM concentration and T-cell number, and anxiety with C3 concentration. T-cell activity was the immunological parameter most consistently associated with psychological well-being, showing positive correlations with defensiveness and ego-strength and negative correlations with anxiety and depression. In conclusion, T-cell number and concentrations of IgM and C3 were sensitive to both work-related stress experience and emotional distress. Coping abilities, indicated by the MMPI Ego-strength scale and emotional distress, were reflected in T-cell activity; insufficient coping was associated with low T-cell activity.     

Women with Turner's Syndrome: helping them reach their full potential

The physical and psychological effects of Turner's Syndrome, a female sex chromosome abnormality, briefly are described. Principles for helping women master the special challenges posed by the disorder are discussed. The authors argue that women with TS must take control of defining their identities and potential in order to attain full status within society.