中国—东盟政治合作机制研究

本文根据中国—东盟区域合作发展的政治合作机制的概念及呈现的多维特性,运用政治合作的目标分解和构成要素,对政治合作机制进行综合的结构分析。通过利益泛化(低度)、制度分化(中度)和价值固化(深度)生成的三个阶段性使命目标(和睦共享、和平共处与和谐共荣)合作过程的剖析,对中国—东盟政治合作机制建设的结构性问题进行探讨,以此助推区域政治合作机制的改进和优化。     

Diagnostics for quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models (QLNMs) are an extension of generalized linear model and include a widen class of models as special cases. This article investigates some diagnostic methods in QLNMs. An equivalency between a case-deletion model and a mean-shift outlier model in QLNM is established. Two simulation study and a real dataset are used to illustrate the proposed diagnostic methods.     

菲利普斯曲线在中国的有效性研究

从基本的菲利普斯曲线理论出发,提出了新的适应性预期模型,并以此为基础建立附加预期的菲利普斯曲线方程,进而估计出我国近年来的自然失业率水平,由此证明了菲利普斯曲线在我国的有效性,并描述了预期因素对实际通货膨胀水平的影响。最后结合实证分析结果提出解决我国通货膨胀和失业问题的建议,如保证货币政策的连贯性、加强信息披露、解决结构性失业问题等。     

The elites’ collective subjectivities of the history of ethnic politics in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Malaysia is one of the multi-ethnic, multi-cultural and multi-religious countries in Southeast Asia. Due to the pluralistic nature of Malaysia, it has a political structure based on ethnic politics. The ethnic preferential policies affected most domains of this country. The objective of this article is to examine the origin and background of ethnic politics in Malaysia. Findings of this study indicate that, ethnic politics originated during the British colonial period, it became a tool used by the Barisan Nasional for the legitimacy of regime. Moreover, ethnic politics in Malaysia today is intertwined with religion. Besides, there is the dilemma of the choice between the interest of certain ethnic group and national interests. However, with the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan won the election in 9th May, UMNO-led BN lost power and interrupted its 61 years control, which leaves us an interesting topic to think about the future of Malaysian ethnic politics.     

Acceptance of automation manufacturing technology in China: an examination of perceived norm and organizational efficacy

Abstract

With a shift to more automation technology, social acceptance of technology plays an important role in the manufacturing sector. To what extent this occurs, and affects the adoption of technology, has been less researched, but is important in deciding how such technology is introduced, and the nature of the shift from labour-intensive manufacturing to automation. This research applies the revised technology acceptance model (TAM) to examine the impact of social and individual antecedents on the acceptance of automation manufacturing technology. Survey data are collected from 258 Chinese manufacturers. Results suggest that perceived norms significantly affect organizational intention to use automation manufacturing technology both directly and via perceived usefulness; organizational efficacy explains the intention to use via mediating effect of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. This research is one of the first extending and applying TAM from individuals to organizations.     

4-6岁幼儿社会戏剧游戏水平调查研究

本研究以68名幼儿为研究对象，运用《游戏检核表》对其社会戏剧游戏水平进行调查，研究发现：4-6岁幼儿角色扮演、口语交流、互动和同伴支持水平高，游戏时间充分；但物品假装、如何进入游戏小组、问题解决和轮流技能较低。教师应通过明确自身角色、丰富幼儿游戏材料和经验、提升幼儿语言能力和社会交往技能促进幼儿社会戏剧游戏发展。     

基于神经网络的测井评价油层污染研究

利用测井资料,在剖析传统的测井评价油(气)层污染方法的基础上,介绍了利用BP神经网络这一现代数理统计新技术来实现测井多参数评定油气层污染程度的方法和技巧;以华北二连油田实际资料为例,建立了测井判释油气层污染的数学物理模型,并进行了模拟预测。结果表明:该法简便可行,对污染评价参数预测精度较高,对污染程度评价合理准确,可作为油(气)层污     

错位与适应：学前教育小学化“为何”与“何为”

为了探究利益相关者视角下学前教育小学化产生的原因及其对策,以重心下移与深度聚焦为思路,对Z市X区4名家长和2名老师进行访谈,借助扎根理论,建构出学前教育小学化"错位"与"适应"的双重生态。"错位"诠释了学前教育小学化的"为何",具体表现为"主体错位"和"职责错位"的复杂交错。"适应"解释了学前教育小学化的"何为",具体表现为适应主体是"家长、幼儿园和辅导班的三管齐下";适应策略包括"坚决抵抗、无奈妥协、精明调适和无知得意";适应类型是"预防型和善后型、强迫型和引导型、突击型和持久型、长远型和短视型"的相互融合。     

“北人”“南物”与唐后期南北问题的重新审视——以南贬北人间的礼物馈赠为中心

唐后期,南贬北人之间存在一种互赠南方物产的风气。在一些独特的南方物产交换行为的背后实际上蕴含着某种南北互动信息。蕲州簟与文石枕的赠送既能够使双方的情感得以交织与升华,更重要的是使南贬北人在自己编织的礼物交换网络中逐渐找到了环境应对的手段与方法,在积极的个人调适中,使北人与南方环境逐渐融合。而斑竹杖与壁州鞭的赠送则具有南贬北人调适贬谪心态之功用,表达了他们对南方生存现状的强烈不满,以及逃离现实的深切渴望。在环境应对与心态调适的同时,郴笔、叠石砚与叠石琴荐的赠送又体现出南贬北人所持有的正统身份认同观念,在一定程度上阻碍着南北的整合趋势。南贬北人对南方主动的排斥与被动的适应,共同构成了唐后期南贬北人在南方的生存状态。这一充满矛盾的生存状态,使得南北的差异与统一、冲突与整合不时发生着博弈性的变奏,这些历史细节在一定程度上影响着唐后期南北历史的发展进程。