基于贝叶斯的Bootstrap置信区间

在许多领域中,Bootstrap成为一种数据处理的有效方法。很多情况下,模型中感兴趣的参数的置信区间难以构建,为了解决这一问题,文章提出了一个新的贝叶斯Bootstrap置信区间的估计量,并做了蒙特卡洛模拟比较,结果比经典区间估计方法和经典Bootstrap方法更优,并进行了实例分析。     

中国粮食生产潜能分析：一个基于“俱乐部 收敛”的视点

我国的粮食单产存在显著的地区差异,不同地区粮食单产的收敛分析有助于预测粮食生产潜能。对1980年至2012年全国30个省区市稻谷、玉米、小麦三种主粮单产数据的收敛分析发现,传统收敛β收敛与σ收敛的分析结果相互冲突,并且与现实不符。而俱乐部收敛分析发现,稻谷单产全国范围内趋于收敛;玉米单产同样在全国范围内收敛;但小麦单产则不存在总体收敛趋势,而是收敛于三个不同的俱乐部。进一步以“俱乐部”内最高单产为参照测算三种主粮历年的生产潜能,预测结果显示,实际产量与潜在产量的差距在不断缩小;三种主粮在2012年的潜在总产量为6.6万亿吨,仍比实际产量高26%;初步估计,未来10—20年之内,三种主粮的增产潜能会保持在10%以上。     

油气田边远地区天然气资源的综合利用研究

油气田边远地区天然气资源包括油田放空天然气(主要是油田伴生气)和低产气井天然气,它们均因气量小,就地无用户和远离输气管网等原因长期未得到开发利用,不仅极大地浪费了资源,而且严重地污染了油田地区的大气。综述了国内外可用于油气田边远地区天然气资源开发利用的净化技术和综合利用技术,认为利用这部分天然气资源应依据气质、气量和市场需求选用合理的净化技术及利用技术,最后对吐哈油田边远地区天然气资源的综合利用进行了研究。     

大数据研究经典的研读与批判—读维克托·迈尔 舍恩佰格《大数据时代》有感

作者在研读维克托·迈尔-舍恩佰格《大数据时代》后,对舍恩佰格的三个主要观点展开讨论并提出质疑,认为随机样本和全体数据同样需要,精确性和混杂性各有所用,相关关系离不开因果关系.文章还介绍了国外学者关于大数据伦理的讨论.     

"古文运动"与"新乐府运动"创作的致用务实精神

以韩、柳为代表的"古文运动"和以白居易为代表的"新乐府"运动是研究中唐文学的热点和不可能回避的内容,而发生在同时的"古文运动"和"新乐府运动"在精神实质上有无内在关系,这种内在关系是什么,各自以什么样的面目(文学理论、文学作品)来表现的?时代的政治革新要求与思想意识形态的振兴必然要反映到文学创作中来,中唐时期无论是对革新的希望、疾呼,还是革新失败后的苦闷、寻求;无论是哲学思想上的反思、复兴,还是文学思想上的追求,都充满了革新的要求和革新失败后鲜明的时代特色.因此,中晚唐文学都染上政治革新、儒学复兴、参与现实与文学创新的鲜明色彩."古文运动"、"新乐府运动"的出现,以险怪为特征的韩、孟诗派和以浅俗为标志的元、白诗派的崛起,刘、柳诗歌的深沉与孤峭,郊、岛之音的深入人心,司空图对王、孟、韦、柳的追踪,李商隐、杜牧、温庭筠的别开生面,晚唐皮日休、陆龟蒙、罗隐、聂夷中等人对时事的冷嘲热讽,只要认真清理其思想和文学渊源,都不难在中唐政治革新及其社会影响中找到关系,这种关系就是古代知识分子以拯救天下为已任的使命感和责任感的表现,具体讲,就是以文学干预现实的"致用务实"精神.     

谈弗·雷·利维斯小说批评中的非个性化原则

非个性化是利维斯衡量其伟大小说和小说家的重要尺度.通过时这一尺度的诠释来捕捉和说明利维斯评价标准的实质,推敲和体味这一标准在其重要评价中所具有的丰富意蕴,这对于我们正确理解和评价利维斯的批评事业无疑是至关重要的.     

网络环境下的反思性教学

反思性教学在吸收了以往传统教学合理性成分的基础上形成为一种新兴的教学理念.反思性教学提倡既发展教师又发展学生,将教师的"学会教学"和学生的"学会学习"有机统一起来,反映了外语教学中教学主体合理性和人文理性的发展过程.网络多媒体的介入体现了教学中对科学技术含量的重视,呈现出了工具理性和人文理性合流的教学局面.同时相对于传统教学而言,网络环境下的反思性教学也为教师角色赋予了更丰富的内涵.     

试论艾青诗歌创作中的宗教情感

艾青诗歌中表现了“救世者”、“创世者”的宗教情感,这种情感的形成对其诗歌创作产生了积极的影响,是其社会思想、审美思想、道德情感的具体表现,使其诗歌具有世代感和使命感.     

A Factor-Adjusted Multiple Testing Procedure With Application to Mutual Fund Selection

In this article, we propose a factor-adjusted multiple testing (FAT) procedure based on factor-adjusted p-values in a linear factor model involving some observable and unobservable factors, for the purpose of selecting skilled funds in empirical finance. The factor-adjusted p-values were obtained after extracting the latent common factors by the principal component method. Under some mild conditions, the false discovery proportion can be consistently estimated even if the idiosyncratic errors are allowed to be weakly correlated across units. Furthermore, by appropriately setting a sequence of threshold values approaching zero, the proposed FAT procedure enjoys model selection consistency. Extensive simulation studies and a real data analysis for selecting skilled funds in the U.S. financial market are presented to illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Network domains in social networking sites: expectations,meanings, and social capital

This paper examines why the use of social networking sites (SNSs) leads to different results in cultivating bridging and bonding social capital for different groups of people. Based on in-depth interviews of 45 university students in Hong Kong, I find that Mainland Chinese students studying in Hong Kong actively use SNSs for seeking practical information about offline matters, and they obtain substantial enacted support from other Mainland students of the same university through SNS use. As a result, they accumulate both bridging and bonding social capital. Local Hong Kong students, however, use SNSs mainly for social information seeking and are only able to accrue limited bridging social capital through SNS use. Drawing on the theory of network domains, I argue that the different offline network structures in which students are located – namely, homogeneous and closed networks versus heterogeneous and open networks – explain this difference. Students with closed offline networks have defined expectations of online ties; they think of their online activities as practical and leading to real changes in their status among peers. Those with open networks have indefinite expectations of their online audience; thus, they interpret online activities differently, thinking of them as recreational, and they are playful in their online behaviour. These different outcomes of online activities consequently lead to diverse results in social capital accrual.