Confidence interval estimation of the difference between paired AUCs based on combined biomarkers

In many diagnostic studies, multiple diagnostic tests are performed on each subject or multiple disease markers are available. Commonly, the information should be combined to improve the diagnostic accuracy. We consider the problem of comparing the discriminatory abilities between two groups of biomarkers. Specifically, this article focuses on confidence interval estimation of the difference between paired AUCs based on optimally combined markers under the assumption of multivariate normality. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed generalized variable approach provides confidence intervals with satisfying coverage probabilities at finite sample sizes. The proposed method can also easily provide P-values for hypothesis testing. Application to analysis of a subset of data from a study on coronary heart disease illustrates the utility of the method in practice.     

Shrinkage inverse regression estimation for model-free variable selection

Summary.  The family of inverse regression estimators that was recently proposed by Cook and Ni has proven effective in dimension reduction by transforming the high dimensional predictor vector to its low dimensional projections. We propose a general shrinkage estimation strategy for the entire inverse regression estimation family that is capable of simultaneous dimension reduction and variable selection. We demonstrate that the new estimators achieve consistency in variable selection without requiring any traditional model, meanwhile retaining the root n estimation consistency of the dimension reduction basis. We also show the effectiveness of the new estimators through both simulation and real data analysis.     

A new interval mapping approach based on a general sib-pair regression model with a modified Wald test

Various regression models based on sib-pair data have been developed for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) in humans since the seminal paper published in 1972 by Haseman and Elston. Fulker and Cardon [D.W. Fulker, L.R. Cardon, A sib-pair approach to interval mapping of quantitative trait loci, Am. J. Hum. Genet. 54 (1994) 1092–1103] adapted the idea of interval mapping [E.S. Lander, D. Botstein, Mapping Mendelian factors underlying quantitative traits using RFLP linkage maps, Genetics 121 (1989) 185–199] to the Haseman–Elston regression model in order to increase the power of QTL mapping. However, in the interval mapping approach of Fulker and Cardon, the statistic for testing QTL effects does not obey the classical statistical theory and hence critical values of the test can not be appropriately determined. In this article, we consider a new interval mapping approach based on a general sib-pair regression model. A modified Wald test is proposed for the testing of QTL effects. The asymptotic distribution of the modified Wald test statistic is provided and hence the critical values or the $p$-values of the test can be well determined. Simulation studies are carried out to verify the validity of the modified Wald test and to demonstrate its desirable power.     

社会再适应、参与式重建与反脆弱性发展——汶川地震灾后重建启示录

从受灾群体的主位角度来说,汶川地震的主要危害在于,它迫使受灾群体在极短的时间内遭受了一系列社会生活的剧烈变动,从而导致了受灾群体原有社会关系被破坏.从这个意义上讲,灾后重建是受灾群体进行社会再适应的过程,其核心内容是社会关系的重建.因此,灾后重建必须凸显和实现受灾群体的主体性价值,亦即受灾群体必须以主体的身份参与灾后重建,在参与式重建中实现社会关系的重建和社会再适应.而灾后重建的最终目标,不仅在于修复因地震所致的破坏,恢复到震前的社会生活状态和社会经济秩序,更重要的是着眼于未来,实现受灾地区的反脆弱性发展.     

马克思哲学:从实践哲学到"实践的解释学"

理论界多将马克思的哲学理解为实践哲学,但是这种理解容易造成对"实践"概念理解的无意识,使实践概念本身成为一个抽象的概念,变成"实践的"形而上学.这种实践的形而上学是对以往以"解释世界"为特征的"理论的"形而上学的"批判"和"颠倒",但"颠倒"的形而上学仍然是形而上学.我认为马克思的哲学应该理解为"实践的解释学",它是实践哲学的深化和发展,是通过人的实践活动对实践概念本身的反思和批判,它着重分析实践的可理解的"前结构"和对"实践的理解",这与马克思对实践概念和实践的理解的强调是一致的.同实践哲学相比,实践的解释学使实践概念摆脱了总体性的"理论"形态,呈现了开放的、历史的特征.     

关于我国构建公司化律师事务所的几点思考

公司化律师事务所是指兼有合伙与公司双重特征的,在性质上有别于传统的无限责任合伙,是特殊的有限责任合伙,属于现行律师法所称的"特殊的普通合伙",并在运行机制上采用公司化管理模式的律师事务所.公司化律师事务所集合了合伙制与公司制的优点,为国外律师界所广泛认可,成为目前市场经济发达国家律师行业中较为普遍采用的律师事务所的运行模式.随着中国加入WTO后法律服务市场的逐步开放,我国律师业开始融入激烈的国际竞争之中.面临严峻的挑战,我国应当借鉴国外的先进经验,构建公司化律师事务所,通过律师队伍的整合,提升我国律师行业的竞争实力.     

家族企业创业导向与企业成长

近年来,学术界逐渐认识到,家族因素和创业问题相结合产生了独特的理论问题和研究视角.本文通过对家族创业文献的梳理评述,基于家族创业的家族嵌入观和创业家族模型等理论架构,试图建立在家族独特资源库、家族创业导向与企业成长之间的关系模型,以理解家族企业的创业成长行为.并对中国制度情境下的家族企业成长模式进行了理论分析.一个理论推断是,从机会导向向创业导向的战略转型是我国家族企业可持续成长的必由之路.     

女性读者与明代章回小说的兴起

当前有关女性读者与章回小说之兴起的考察,明显来自西方小说理论的影响.其实,有多少女性接受小说,如何接受,并不只是社会文化消费景观自然的变迁,而是与宋明以来、尤其是明中叶的教育世俗化运动密切相关.明初,朱元璋等人即积极将原有女教思想纳入礼乐系统,加以制度化,女教遂成为当时官方新朱学的重要一环.成弘以来官方女教渐次衰微,在野士大夫纷纷以推行女教为已任,或重教化,或重性情,其间复古与新变的争执至嘉靖万历初日趋明朗,章回小说正是在此背景下兴起的.一方面,重女教者鼓吹假通俗读物以教化女性,这一思潮直接影响了章回小说的兴起;另一方面,重性灵者鼓吹女性的才学,其结果却是大量女性首先折入诗文词曲的创作,她们对章回小说的影响只能是间接而曲折的.可以说,最终影响章回小说兴盛的,仍然是期待视野中的女性读者,是编撰者眼中的女性姿态最终构成了章回小说的有关内容.     

19世纪以来美国的四次经济危机及其应对策略分析

文章通过对美国历史上四次较大的经济危机的考察,深入分析了这四次经济危机发生的不同背景及其对经济、社会产生的影响.以此为基础,文章对罗斯福政府、里根政府、奥巴马政府应对经济危机的政策措施厦其效果进行比较分析.研究发现,美国政府总是通过稳定金融、增加政府投资、扩大内需三方面来医治经济危机,文章的分析逻辑对中国政府具有重要的借鉴意义.     

强化民事第一审程序:原理、路径与方法

第一审程序是整个民事审判程序的基础,充实第一审程序,有利于保障当事人充分行使诉讼权利、有利于提高法院民事审判的质量和效率.当下,有必要通过完善民事诉讼的程序规则,使法官和当事人协同促进诉讼来加强第一审程序.向后挪动允许当事人提交证据资料、增加或变更诉讼请求、提起反诉的时间界限,允许当事人提起预备之诉,强化法官的阐明义务,坚持"适时提出主义",是强化第一审程序的具体措施.