国家级电视媒体在维吾尔族观众中影响力研究

中央电视台作为我国唯一真正实现了全国覆盖的国家级电视媒体,在维吾尔族观众中影响力的大小,是一个与民族团结和社会和谐密切相关的问题。通过对央视在维吾尔族观众中影响力情况的问卷调查和小组访谈,可以看出,整体上央视的影响力颇为强劲,可堪使命,但也存在一些潜在的问题,需要在以后的工作中逐步解决。     

校企合作构建第二课堂的实施效果分析及评价——基于圣奥班(家具设计专业)毕业生跟踪问卷的调查

南京林业大学与浙江圣奥(木业)集团联合创建的“圣奥班”是校企合作联合培养创新型家具设计工程专业人才的成功平台之一.基于圣奥班毕业生的问卷调查,对学生进班动机与目标定位、比较优势、获得的帮助、专业能力提升,以及今后办班建议等方面内容进行了分析.统计结果表明,学校和企业共同搭建的圣奥班平台对学生创新意识,专业能力、就业竞争力等诸多方面都有显著的提升.     

A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.     

“破冰”还是“破茧”:中国文学走出去——顾彬教授与方汉文教授的对话

中国文学走出去面临"破冰"1与"破茧"2的双重挑战。对话双方从中国现当代小说与古典小说传统之间因时代变迁所形成的非传统性、传统小说与西方小说艺术表达与再现方式的不同之处、如何从世界文学史角度来评价中国小说诗歌价值等问题交流看法。也无可避免地涉及到当代中国作家的评价,双方观点同异并存,既有交锋又有融合,体现了不同文化观念在这一话题评价的对话性,文中充满了直率的评价,目标是为了中国文学的世界化,而不是褒贬人物。     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

Tail Behavior and Limit Distribution of Maximum of Logarithmic General Error Distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution, an extension of the log-normal distribution, is proposed. Some interesting properties of the log GED are derived. These properties are applied to establish the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of probability densities and the ratio of the tails of the logarithmic general error and log-normal distributions, and to derive the asymptotic distribution of the partial maximum of an independent and identically distributed sequence obeying the log GED.     

英语中汉语借词研究新探

英语词汇中存在大量源自其他语言的借词,其中也包括一定数量的汉语词。对英语外来语词典的考察及问卷调查发现,一部分汉语借词具有较高的认知度,而有一些词则不为英语母语者所熟悉。虽然对于"中国英语"是否可以看作是英语的一种变体还有争议,但在世界英语的语境下,汉语借词正在为英语词汇的扩展做出新的贡献。     

基于神经网络的测井评价油层污染研究

利用测井资料,在剖析传统的测井评价油(气)层污染方法的基础上,介绍了利用BP神经网络这一现代数理统计新技术来实现测井多参数评定油气层污染程度的方法和技巧;以华北二连油田实际资料为例,建立了测井判释油气层污染的数学物理模型,并进行了模拟预测。结果表明:该法简便可行,对污染评价参数预测精度较高,对污染程度评价合理准确,可作为油(气)层污     

农村地区彝族青年婚姻困境破解的公共政策支持

当前,农村地区彝族青年的婚姻困境问题明显,形式变异的"买卖婚"在强大的社会心理支撑下普遍存在,婚姻困境中的性别差异明显,青年男女的婚姻自由受到限制,固守传统婚姻形式造成多种社会问题。破解农村地区彝族青年婚姻困境,需要给予公共政策支持的外力推动,形成解决这一问题的内生动力,并最终帮助彝族青年男女突破婚恋的物质和精神束缚,促进农村地区婚姻进步和经济社会发展。     

基于最近邻分析的空气质量时空数据异常点识别

空气质量数据具有在时间上连续、空间上相关的特点,这提高了异常点识别的难度.本文提出在时间维度上运用移动平均法,在空间维度上运用反距离加权法对观测值进行预测并求残差的解决思路,从而将时空数据的异常点识别问题转化为二维残差值的异常点检测问题.通过仿真验证表明新方法具有良好的检出力.最后将新方法应用于北京市实际观测数据,取得了满意的识别效果.