朱纨事件与东亚海上贸易体系的形成

明代中后期东亚海上贸易有四种主导势力:明朝政府、中国私人海商、日本人和葡萄牙人,彼此之间的激烈竞争,其实质乃是新旧贸易体制之间的斗争。朱纨事件的发生,与此一历史背景紧密相连,对当时东亚海域各种势力的消长及其活动,对葡萄牙人占据澳门以及早期东亚海上贸易体系的形成,都发挥了较大的历史影响。     

A flexible parametric survival model for fitting time to event data in clinical trials

Time‐to‐event data are common in clinical trials to evaluate survival benefit of a new drug, biological product, or device. The commonly used parametric models including exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, log‐logistic, log‐normal, are simply not flexible enough to capture complex survival curves observed in clinical and medical research studies. On the other hand, the nonparametric Kaplan Meier (KM) method is very flexible and successful on catching the various shapes in the survival curves but lacks ability in predicting the future events such as the time for certain number of events and the number of events at certain time and predicting the risk of events (eg, death) over time beyond the span of the available data from clinical trials. It is obvious that neither the nonparametric KM method nor the current parametric distributions can fulfill the needs in fitting survival curves with the useful characteristics for predicting. In this paper, a full parametric distribution constructed as a mixture of three components of Weibull distribution is explored and recommended to fit the survival data, which is as flexible as KM for the observed data but have the nice features beyond the trial time, such as predicting future events, survival probability, and hazard function.     

Three Parallel Flats Designs for Two-level Factorial Experiments

This paper investigates the properties of the class of three parallel flats designs for two-level factorial experiments. It shows that the designs constructed from this class of designs can have a very simple correlation structure. The correlation of any pair of best linear unbiased estimators of factorial effects is 0, ⅓ or ¼. Furthermore, the designs obtained also have high D-efficiency. Finally, a class of designs is generated with run-size N = 12 to illustrate the use of the theorem.     

Simulation-Based Density Estimation for Time Series Using Covariate Data

This article proposes a simulation-based density estimation technique for time series that exploits information found in covariate data. The method can be paired with a large range of parametric models used in time series estimation. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimator and illustrate attractive finite sample properties for a range of well-known econometric and financial applications.     

民生视角下的住宅定价原理与模型分析

住宅是具有垄断性质的耐用生活必需品,在完全自由化市场条件下,市场势力失衡,厂商(供给方)利用垄断优势定价以获取垄断利润,导致住宅价格严重脱离真实住房需求,损害社会福利,积累市场风险.因此,应该改革定价机制,根据住房真实需求(居民住宅支付能力)对住宅市场实行价格规制P≤(I/X)·[1-1/(1+r)t]/r,以恢复市场真实的均衡价格,提高全社会福利.在此基础上对厂商进行投资收益率规制R(p·q)=C+S(RB),最后推定土地价格P土=C土=C总-C建安-C其他,从而提高资源配置效率,使住宅价格、住宅用地价格与经济发展水平相适应.     

再论专利侵权诉讼证据制度

在专利侵权诉讼中，证据是当事人进行诉讼的前提条件；证据也是人民法院查明事实、分清是非、正确适用法律、及时审理案件的基础和依据；证据还是保护当事人合法权益的重要工具。然而，长期以来，我国立法界、司法界和学术界对于专利侵权诉讼中是否应该引入证据披露制度等问题，有着不同的看法和做法。参照国际公约的规定和一些发达国家的经验，对相关问题进行深入探讨，具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

《喧哗与骚动》的时间叙事方法

福克纳的著名小说《喧哗与骚动》是受到广泛评论的文学作品之一，文章仅从其第二章入手，解析他利用“时间”的叙事方法来刻画出一个极度扭曲的灵魂，以及他以“时钟时间”和“心理时间”的不对等关系剖析主人公昆丁所表现出来的时间错位所带来的深刻隐喻。     

论抗日战争中的中国农民

农民占中国总人口80%以上,是中国最为深厚的抗日力量,从某种意义上讲,中国抗日战争实质上是以农民为主体的民族解放战争。中国农民是抗日战争中巨大人力、物力和财力的最大承担者和战争的直接参与者,没有农民的合作与广泛参与,中国就不可能打赢这场战争。抗日战争中,中国农民表现出了血战到底的英雄气慨、宁死不屈的民族气节、各族农民的广泛参与、以弱胜强的智慧和创造力等一系列的特点。