Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates

Journal of Population Research - When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover,...     

中心城区遗产型城市广场的使用后评价研究——以广州陈家祠岭南文化广场为例

城市广场是城市公共游憩空间的重要组成部分。在城市文化旅游日益发展的背景下,中心城区遗产型广场这一特殊的游憩空间既要满足本地市民的游憩需求,又要迎合城市旅游开发与城市形象建设,本研究以广州陈家祠岭南文化广场为例,通过对其进行使用后评价(POE)研究,表明陈家祠文化广场的规划和管理由于更多地是服务于外地游客,因此在空间设计和使用上排斥了很多本土化的休闲活动,既不能满足本地居民强烈的休闲需求,也不能让游客体验到遗产型城市广场的文化性。文章最后对此类城市广场的规划和管理提出了建议。     

基于改进的聚类和关联规则挖掘的学生成绩分析

针对北京邮电大学通信工程专业学生的学习状况分析和培养方案的改进需求,提出一种基于改进的聚类和关联规则挖掘的成绩分析方法,借助数据挖掘手段对学生在校期间的各课程成绩进行相关性分析.以2009-2011级通信工程专业本科生的课程成绩作为样本数据,应用该挖掘方法得到课程之间的关联规则网络,从而分析课程间的衔接关系、判断课程的重要程度以及评价各课程的教学效果.另外,以2011级学生的高考成绩数据作为样本,挖掘高考成绩与大学成绩间的关联规则,分析学生入学前成绩对入学后表现的影响.应用本文所述方法得到的挖掘结果能够为教学方案的设计和改进提供一定参考信息,对提高学生学习质量具有良好作用.     

Permanently online and permanently connected: Taiwanese university students’ attachment style,mobile phone usage,and well-being

Taiwan has been the top country worldwide in terms of its adoption and use of mobile phones. This study explores the permanently online (PO) and permanently connected (PC) phenomenon in mobile phone use among Taiwanese university students. It seeks to determine whether attachment styles are a distinctive factor that influences PO and PC (POPC) behavior and leads to various levels of well-being. The results of this study provide initial evidence that Taiwanese users highly depend on their mobile phones for PC and PO activities but perceive that being permanently connected causes interpersonal stress. Although the findings showed that all styles were positively associated with PO, only the secure and anxious styles predicted PC. Regarding mobile phone activities, the avoidant attachment style was not associated with any activities, the secure attachment style was positively associated with online and voice communication as well as information-seeking activities, and the anxious attachment style was associated only with voice communication. Furthermore, attachment styles lead to various levels of interpersonal stress through PO and PC behavior. The anxious style interacts with PO on interpersonal stress. This study provides evidence that attachment style is a significant antecedent of POPC and its consequences in mobile phone usage.     

Obesity and sex ratios in the U.S.

This paper studies how rising male incarceration and its impact on marriage markets has affected female incentives to gain weight. Exogenous variation in marriage market conditions is obtained from differential trends in male incarceration rates across markets defined by race, location and age. We provide evidence that marriage market conditions do in fact affect the incidence of obesity. In particular, we find that increases in male imprisonment that reduced the male–female sex-ratio explain about 18 % of the increase in the female obesity rate for African-Americans in the United States over the 1990s. Results are particularly large for those in the younger age group (ages 18–23).     

《利维坦》中国家主权与个人自我保存权之间的张力

在《利维坦》中,国家主权与个人自我保存权是两个核心概念。出于维护个人自我保存权的目的,霍布斯构建出一个强有力的国家主权。但是,国家主权和自我保存权之间却存在着严重的张力:一方面,不受制约的国家主权必然导致主权者权力的滥用,进而会侵害个人的自我保存权;另一方面,对个人自我保存权的过分强调使臣民对抗法律和主权具有了道义上的依据,这势必损毁国家主权的基础。《利维坦》中逻辑困境的症结在于:一方面,霍布斯没有把主权的至高无上与治权的应受制约区分开来;另一方面,霍布斯对于自然状态下与国家状态下的自我保存权未作应有的区分。     

The Relationships between Activity and Quality of Life for Older Men and Women at Different Ages in Taiwan

This study investigated the relationships between types of activity and quality of life (QOL) for older men and women at different ages. Based on cross-sectional data that included 220 community-dwelling elderly persons aged 65 and older in southern Taiwan, the results showed that the participation rates in many activities declined with age for both genders. Social activity and solitary leisure activity were significantly associated with QOL for old-old men, but not for young-old men. Only social activity was significantly associated with QOL for young-old women, but there was no significant association between any activity and QOL for old-old women.     

与国际行政法的产生有关的几个基本问题——基于全球化、全球治理的视角

全球治理的提出源于全球化的推动,而全球治理的提出及实践则使国际行政法的产生、形成成为可能。具体而言,全球公民社会的兴起与国际非政府组织的发展是国际行政法产生的两个现实驱动因素。国际行政法的产生路径可总结为"自下而上"和"自上而下"的路径。国际行政法具有区别于国内行政法的若干明显特征,国际层面相比国内层面的很多特殊性也使得国际行政法的体系化发展面临诸多挑战。这些问题虽然不能忽视,但它们也并非不可克服。虽然国际行政法不如国内行政法成熟,但是如能改进合法性,便能够将超国家机构的全球治理职能发挥得更好。全球治理语境下国际行政法体系的产生、形成是一种历史的必然趋势。     

A revisit to test the equality of variances of several populations

We revisit the problem of testing homoscedasticity (or, equality of variances) of several normal populations which has applications in many statistical analyses, including design of experiments. The standard text books and widely used statistical packages propose a few popular tests including Bartlett's test, Levene's test and a few adjustments of the latter. Apparently, the popularity of these tests have been based on limited simulation study carried out a few decades ago. The traditional tests, including the classical likelihood ratio test (LRT), are asymptotic in nature, and hence do not perform well for small sample sizes. In this paper we propose a simple parametric bootstrap (PB) modification of the LRT, and compare it against the other popular tests as well as their PB versions in terms of size and power. Our comprehensive simulation study bursts some popularly held myths about the commonly used tests and sheds some new light on this important problem. Though most popular statistical software/packages suggest using Bartlette's test, Levene's test, or modified Levene's test among a few others, our extensive simulation study, carried out under both the normal model as well as several non-normal models clearly shows that a PB version of the modified Levene's test (which does not use the F-distribution cut-off point as its critical value), and Loh's exact test are the “best” performers in terms of overall size as well as power.     

中越边境跨境非婚生子女的心理健康状况分析

采用问卷法,对中越边境地区跨境非婚生子女进行心理健康状况测查.结果表明,中越边境地区跨境非婚生子女总体心理健康水平低于国内其他一些中小学生群体,心理健康问题严重;女孩的恐怖倾向极其显著且高于男孩;中学生过敏倾向、对人焦虑显著高于小学生;父母是否外出打工对孩子心理健康的影响不显著;住校孩子的自责倾向、过敏倾向显著高于不住校的孩子;排行中间的孩子心理健康状况最差,排行对孩子自责倾向、身体症状影响显著.政府、学校要重视对这群特殊孩子的心理援助.