Cities evolution tree and applications to predicting urban growth

China’s unprecedented urbanization and economic modernization have brought about significant growth and land use changes in cities and their surroundings. Traditional analyses of the relationship between urbanization and land use change have not fully incorporated important factors like city function or developmental stage. We define and apply a new visualization and analysis tool—an evolution tree—showing how an understanding of evolutionary pathways taken by growing cities contributes to visualization and forecasting of urban development and spatial expansion. We clustered 253 Chinese cities by type and developmental stage, arranging them in a “tree” structure, with types grouped as branches and leaf position along branches reflecting developmental stage. Urban growth rates are higher for business-oriented, manufacturing-oriented, and functionally comprehensive cities than for those oriented toward tourism. Extent of spatial growth is dominated by city type and developmental stage. Cities evolve along typical pathways, punctuated by occasional leap developments across functional types.     

创新理念的中国管理C模式解读

"创新"发展理念的践行与中国传统文化密切相关。中国古典哲学从儒、墨、道、法、兵、易、禅等学说为创新提供了"仁义"的价值内核、创新主体自由发展的驱动力、"德性管理、实践理性"的方法论、尚贤尚同的组织原则、"权变、逆向、谋算、质疑、直觉、发散、非线性"等创新思维、"博学、审问、慎思、明辨、笃行"的创新过程管理、"知行合一"的创新实践机制,"超越"的本质精神,以"整体性""导向性""动态性"的文化管理体系推动创新的生生不息。进一步整合西方创新理论与管理工具,则构建了中国管理C模式的创新管理系统模型。阴阳变易法则推动创新元素的融合转化与裂变,形成开放式、协同式的"有机组织",推动全面创新及自主创新。中国管理C模式实现了创新管理的价值性、工具性、实践性的统一,为大众创新提供了管理哲学视角的理论基础与方法论。     

A Design of Attributes Double Sampling Plans for Three-class Products

In this article, a new attributes double sampling plan for three-class products (ADSPTP) is presented, and the corresponding operating characteristic function is constructed based on the given procedure of performing ADSPTP. Average sample numbers (ASN) for complete inspection and curtailed inspection of the second sample are derived and the extreme point is discussed on the three-dimensional ASN surface. In addition, the differences arising from different parameters are studied. Sampling plans are designed by a nonlinear optimization model. Finally, numerical examples and discussions are given to illustrate the obtained results, and tables of the designed plans under various conditions are provided.     

大学生社会主义核心价值观的培育系统与路径——基于社会生态系统理论的视角

大学生是社会主义核心价值观培育的重要人群。基于社会生态系统理论对大学生社会主义核心价值观培育的各层级系统的研究认为,新形势下大学生社会主义核心价值观培育的实现路径应切合大学生对社会主义核心价值观培育的内在需求,建立大学生社会主义核心价值培育的"三位"生态系统,促进各级系统之间的相互融合,推动系统良性运行。     

Semi-empirical likelihood inference for the ROC curve with missing data

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is one of the most commonly used methods to compare the diagnostic performance of two or more laboratory or diagnostic tests. In this paper, we propose semi-empirical likelihood based confidence intervals for ROC curves of two populations, where one population is parametric and the other one is non-parametric and both have missing data. After imputing missing values, we derive the semi-empirical likelihood ratio statistic and the corresponding likelihood equations. It is shown that the log-semi-empirical likelihood ratio statistic is asymptotically scaled chi-squared. The estimating equations are solved simultaneously to obtain the estimated lower and upper bounds of semi-empirical likelihood confidence intervals. We conduct extensive simulation studies to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed empirical likelihood confidence intervals with various sample sizes and different missing probabilities.     

专业社工机构介入城市流动儿童基础教育研究——基于南宁市X机构的实践

城市流动儿童是城市一个特殊的弱势群体,专业社工机构在城市流动儿童教育服务中大有作为.南宁市X机构运用专业的社工理论与方法,从家庭、学校、社区和政府四个层面介入南宁市万秀村流动儿童阅读教育,取得了一定的成效.但是,在实践中发现专业社工机构介入城市流动儿童教育还存在诸多问题,主要表现在政策不完善、经费不足、专业社工人才缺乏、专业社工机构发展缓慢、社会认同偏低等.为此,要促进专业社工机构介入城市流动儿童教育服务,在政策上要让社工机构有更广阔的舞台,在经费上要不断完善以政府购买社会工作服务为主体、多种筹资方式并存的筹资模式,在社区层面应坚持扎根社区、依托社区、回归社区的工作理念,在人才方面应培养职业化、专业化的社会工作人才,在机构方面应发展专一化的社会工作机构.     

上海家庭教育的现状及发展思考

上海家庭教育既表现出典型的现代化趋势，也存在不符合现代家庭教育发展理念的若干问题，主要表现在：家庭治理模式向现代民主型模式转变，但部分家长的教养态度依然不够民主；父母对孩子成长的关注与孩子的心理需求存在较大偏差。父母最关心孩子的学习成绩，而孩子最希望父母关注他们的内心想法；亲子活动较少，孩子与父母的沟通意向不强，网络聊天对孩子的影响对亲子沟通方式提出了挑战。建议通过重新认识家庭教育的独特作用与功能定位；提高家庭教育的文化含量，建设和谐文化；加强家庭教育指导，满足多样化的家庭教育需求；加强平台建设，完善学校、家庭、社会“三位一体”合力育人机制等方式提升家庭教育质量。     

分段启动压力对宝浪油田驱动压差的影响

摘要：渗透率低于 10 mD 的特低渗储层与平均渗透率大于 20 mD 的低渗储层开发技术政策界限和开发方案制定等有很大的差别，渗透率越低，其启动压力成倍增加，这就影响了开发技术和方案的制定。应用分段启动压力梯度进行分段计算并进行对比，计算结果表明：用同一启动压力梯度计算的结果不符合实际情况，而应用分段启动压力梯度计算的结果更能很好地反映特低渗储层的实际情况；井距对较高渗透率的驱动压力计算影响并不大，但对于特低渗储层的驱动压力计算则影响很大。     

比较优势动态递减概率模型及检验

在比较优势的持续时间是随机变量的条件下,文章运用不确定性数学方法和规范方法,推出了比较优势递减定理,认为比较优势会随着时间增加而递减,具有发散效应,即比较优势不会被锁定.推出的比较优势“无记忆性”定理表明,各国遵循比较优势发展国际贸易是正确的,国际贸易会让各个国家自动寻找到适合本国的比较优势.通过定义比较优势逆转概率,运用实证方法进行研究,研究表明比较优势基本符合比较优势递减定理和“无记忆性”定理内容,认为中国传统劳动密集型优势在逐渐减小,产业结构调整非常成功,逐渐拥有资本密集型优势和技术密集型优势,产业结构越来越合理.