部分状态可见的隐马尔可夫模型状态序列的估计方法

本文考虑了部分状态可见的隐马尔可夫模型的状态序列估计问题,在分析了现有算法无法合理估计状态路径之后,以状态转移概率、观测概率和可见状态作为先验信息,通过贝叶斯分析计算可见状态前后向状态的后验概率,并给出初始条件和递推公式,运用动态规划递推得到每个观测值对应的最可能状态以及最可能的状态路径。最后,本文给出一个系统故障识别的应用例子,验证了所设计算法的可行性。     

制约道德态度形成的要素分析

社会环境、家庭及个体的道德体验是道德态度形成的重要影响因素。其中,社会道德文化、道德教育、参照群体,家庭氛围、父母对子女的道德教育及其道德态度,对社会道德的观察学习及其达到的道德知觉水平、道德经验的情绪后果、需要的满足等因素会从不同角度影响个体道德态度的形成。     

全球化与全球治理——以欧洲委员会《网络犯罪公约》为例

作为全球化问题之一的网络犯罪,打破了传统民族国家领土界限限制,其治理要求建立全球范围的国际合作治理框架。欧洲委员会2001年通过的《网络犯罪公约》,内容涵盖刑事实体法、刑事程序法和国际合作等多个方面,并通过各种立法技术协调不同国家之间刑事法律政策、文化传统等方面的冲突。在公约的起草和实施过程中,为促进公约在更广泛的范围被接受,重视多元主体的参与。通过十余年的发展,以《网络犯罪公约》为基础构建的打击网络犯罪的区域性合作框架正向全球治理机制发展。     

开创风物传说研究的新格局——评陈金文先生新著《壮族风物传说的文化研究》

陈佥文先生长期致力于民间传说研究，其新著《壮族风物传说的文化研究》以文化学为理论视角，系统、深入地研究壮族风物传说，开创了民间风物传说研究的新格局。     

论交际法在大学英语教学中的局限性

本文通过对大学英语教学特点的分析,探讨了大学英语教学过程能否交际化的问题,从理论和实践两方面论述了外语课堂所培养的交际能力与社会交际能力之间的差异,最后指出“弱式”交际能力的理论对大学英语教学更具有实际指导意义。     

高校青年教师离职问题思考

青年教师是高校教学工作未来的核心力量,由于自身特点和诸多外界因素,离职率一直居高不下,对学校正常教学、科研活动的开展带来了比较大的负面影响。本文对高校青年教师离职原因进行了分析,并提出了解决这个问题的思路。     

Sample size estimation for comparing rates of change in K-group repeated count outcomes

Sample size estimation for comparing the rates of change in two-arm repeated measurements has been investigated by many investigators. In contrast, the literature has paid relatively less attention to sample size estimation for studies with multi-arm repeated measurements where the design and data analysis can be more complex than two-arm trials. For continuous outcomes, Jung and Ahn (2004 Jung, S., Ahn, C. (2004). K-sample test and sample size calculation for comparing slopes in data with repeated measurements. Biometrical J. 46(5):554–564.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Zhang and Ahn (2013 Zhang, S., Ahn, C. (2013). Sample size calculation for comparing time-averaged responses in k-group repeated measurement studies. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 58:283–291.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have presented sample size formulas to compare the rates of change and time-averaged responses in multi-arm trials, using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. To our knowledge, there has been no corresponding development for multi-arm trials with count outcomes. We present a sample size formula for comparing the rates of change in multi-arm repeated count outcomes using the GEE approach that accommodates various correlation structures, missing data patterns, and unbalanced designs. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed sample size formula under a wide range of designing configurations. Simulation results suggest that empirical type I error and power are maintained close to their nominal levels. The proposed method is illustrated using an epileptic clinical trial example.     

In Whose Interest? The UN's Strategic Rapprochement with Business in the Sustainable Development Agenda

Following the Rio+20 conference and in anticipation of the end of the Millennium Development Goals, the United Nations is at the centre of debates on the future of sustainable development. In these debates, the UN Secretariat has positioned transnational corporations as essential and legitimate actors for new sustainable development goals. This policy does not follow a direct mandate from member states. Rather, the UN's rapprochement with business in the ‘Post-2015’ process should be seen as an example of independent decision-making by the organization within the constraints of the current world order. This strategy dates back to the late 1990s and is meant to increase the UN's authority and legitimacy and expand its mandate by making it more relevant to powerful actors in the international arena. The article questions whether the organization's strategy vis-à-vis business is producing the anticipated effects, or rather reveals institutional dysfunction.     

四川省“十一五”期间“民族问题”研究述评

"十一五"期间,四川省"民族问题"研究已经形成了良好的发展势头,"民族问题"研究工作者和民族工作战线的广大工作人员,取得了令人瞩目的成绩,主要表现在学术机构、学术队伍和学科建设的新发展以及社科基金项目大幅攀升等方面。这些成就为"十二五"期间"民族问题"研究的发展跃上一个新台阶奠定了很好的基础。但是,也存在一些问题:国家社科基金侧重应用研究和对策研究,事实上削弱了基本理论的研究,"体"与"用"出现失衡,从长远而言,不利于我国哲学社会科学的繁荣发展;理论研究的失误和缺失势必带来政策与工作的失误。实事求是地总结近60年来我们民族工作正、反两个方面的经验教训,评估我们当前的民族问题和民族工作状况,改进我们下一步的民族工作是我们面临的一个重要课题。