经济系统的演化与政策作用

该文根据耗散结构的基本原理 ,将经济系统划分为平衡态、过渡态和自组织状态。并将政策因素看成是一种外部调控手段 ,分析了在经济系统的不同状态下 ,政策因素对改变系统的结构及变化趋势所起的不同作用     

《秦始皇本纪》二十三四年事试析

《秦始皇本纪》二十三四年所记之事与他处并无歧异之处 ,这几段文字不需要改序或改字来求解。二十三年所虏之荆王并非负刍 ,而是昌文君。它所反映的是当时反秦斗争的激烈和楚国当时的国内状况。     

厌氧法处理高浓度硫酸盐有机工业废水的研究

本文对硫酸盐还原菌与产甲烷菌的基质竞争以及硫酸盐还原作用在厌氧处理过程中的消极影响进行了讨论 ,分析了高硫酸盐有机工业废水厌氧处理的途径。     

鲁迅视野中的屈原

本文结合鲁迅评价屈原的文章和相关言论，指出鲁迅运用阶级的、历史的观点评说屈原，达到了同时代文学史家所难达到的高度。鲁迅评价屈原，不仅看其“全人”，而且看其“全文”，避免了评价的狭隘性、单一性和片面性。     

从“宣传工作”到“宣传文化”——传播学视野中的宣传刍议

本文从宣传效果、宣传功能的角度分析我国宣传工作经历的四个阶段，指出党的十七大报告中提出的“建设社会主义核心价值体系，建设和谐文化”，“激发全民族文化创造活力，提高国家文化软实力”正将我国宣传工作引入新阶段，也是对我国宣传文化系统在国家软实力构建过程中应承担文化传播功能的全新工作要求。     

农药学课程教学改革的探讨

农药学作为专业基础课，其理论与实践教学改革具有重要意义。从培养学生的创新精神与实践能力出发，我们针对教材、教学方法及其实践环节等进行了一系列改革。重点是教材建设、利用多媒体等教学手段，增设综合性和设计性实验、加强实践教学，多种途径调动学生的学习积极性和主动性，提高了教学效果与学生分析和解决实际问题的能力。     

中小企业成长的社会网络解释与分析

中小企业成长依赖于外部资源获取,而资源获取渠道又通常产自于由各种社会关系构成的社会网络。本文针对中小企业成长的独特轨迹,认为社会网络理论在中小企业资源获取及在此基础上的持续成长方面具有独到的解释与分析力度。此外,对社会网络的演进模式及其在中小企业资源获取与成长过程中发挥的作用进行了分析。最后,对社会网络理论在中小企业成长方面可能的具体研究应用领域进行了探讨。     

从历史、现实看图书馆的未来

简策同帛书、写本抄本刻版同活字印刷图书,相互共存是一个很长的时间。数字图书要一统天下,仍需同印刷型图书共存很长时间。数字图书馆会把因特网和传统图书馆的优点扩展到最大限度,把两者的缺点缩减到最低限度。做到:文献信息量最大,使用又最为方便。     

Bootstrap Estimation of Benchmark Doses and Confidence Limits with Clustered Quantal Data

The benchmark dose (BMD) is an exposure level that would induce a small risk increase (BMR level) above the background. The BMD approach to deriving a reference dose for risk assessment of noncancer effects is advantageous in that the estimate of BMD is not restricted to experimental doses and utilizes most available dose-response information. To quantify statistical uncertainty of a BMD estimate, we often calculate and report its lower confidence limit (i.e., BMDL), and may even consider it as a more conservative alternative to BMD itself. Computation of BMDL may involve normal confidence limits to BMD in conjunction with the delta method. Therefore, factors, such as small sample size and nonlinearity in model parameters, can affect the performance of the delta method BMDL, and alternative methods are useful. In this article, we propose a bootstrap method to estimate BMDL utilizing a scheme that consists of a resampling of residuals after model fitting and a one-step formula for parameter estimation. We illustrate the method with clustered binary data from developmental toxicity experiments. Our analysis shows that with moderately elevated dose-response data, the distribution of BMD estimator tends to be left-skewed and bootstrap BMDL s are smaller than the delta method BMDL s on average, hence quantifying risk more conservatively. Statistically, the bootstrap BMDL quantifies the uncertainty of the true BMD more honestly than the delta method BMDL as its coverage probability is closer to the nominal level than that of delta method BMDL. We find that BMD and BMDL estimates are generally insensitive to model choices provided that the models fit the data comparably well near the region of BMD. Our analysis also suggests that, in the presence of a significant and moderately strong dose-response relationship, the developmental toxicity experiments under the standard protocol support dose-response assessment at 5% BMR for BMD and 95% confidence level for BMDL.