Bayesian semiparametric inference for the accelerated failure-time model

Bayesian semiparametric inference is considered for a loglinear model. This model consists of a parametric component for the regression coefficients and a nonparametric component for the unknown error distribution. Bayesian analysis is studied for the case of a parametric prior on the regression coefficients and a mixture-of-Dirichlet-processes prior on the unknown error distribution. A Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is developed to compute the features of the posterior distribution. A model selection method for obtaining a more parsimonious set of predictors is studied. The method adds indicator variables to the regression equation. The set of indicator variables represents all the possible subsets to be considered. A MCMC method is developed to search stochastically for the best subset. These procedures are applied to two examples, one with censored data.     

Society as Text: Essays on Rhetoric,Reason, and Reality,by Richard Harvey Brown

Anthropology as Cultural Critique: An Experimental Moment in the Human Sciences , by George E. Marcus and Michael M.J. Fischer.     

A direct derivation of the REML likelihood function

The original derivation of the widely cited form of the REML likelihood function for mixed linear models is difficult and indirect. This paper derives it directly using familiar operations with matrices and determinants.     

Communicating Risks and Benefits from Fish Consumption: Impact on Belgian Consumers' Perception and Intention to Eat Fish

Communicating about the health effects of fish and seafood may potentially result in a conflict situation: increasing intake is desirable because of health and nutritional benefits, but higher consumption may also lead to an increased intake of potentially harmful environmental contaminants. In order to anticipate the communication challenge this conflict may pose, the research presented here aimed to assess the impact of risk/benefit communication on Belgian consumers' fish consumption behavior and fish attribute perception. Data were collected in June 2005 from a sample of 381 women, aged between 20 and 50 years. An experimental design consisting of four message conditions (benefit‐only; risk‐only; benefit‐risk; and risk‐benefit) combined with three information sources (fish and food industry; consumer organization; government) was used. Exposure to the benefit‐only message resulted in an increase from a self‐reported fish consumption frequency of 4.2 times per month to an intended fish consumption frequency of 5.1 times per month (+21%), while fish attribute perceptions only marginally improved. The risk‐only message resulted in a strong negative perceptual change in the range of two points on a seven‐point scale. This translated into an 8% decrease of behavioral intention (from eating fish 4.5 times per month to an intention of eating fish 4.1 times per month). Balanced messages referring to both risks and benefits yielded no significant change in behavioral intention, despite a significant worsening of fish attribute perception. The presentation order of benefits and risks in the balanced message showed a tendency to affect both behavioral intention and attribute perception, with the first message component being most influential. Information source did not yield any significant impact either on behavioral intention or on attribute perceptions, independent of the message content. The results from this study provide valuable insights for future risk/benefit and balanced communication about seafood.     

能挽救生命的医学突破

新生代治疗方法已加入到与中风、癌症和心脏病作斗争的行列。除了小时侯摘除过扁桃体之外,63岁的霍华德·库比兹从未进过医院。因此,1998年6月8日,当他中风、身体右半边麻痹时,他唯一的恐惧就是,正如他所了解的,生活就此结束了。他已经想象自己被束缚在轮椅上或是在疗养院里度过余生。     

Choice and circumstance: Qualitative insights into contemporary childlessness in Australia

Using data from in-depth interviews with 115 women, men and couples in eastern Australia for whom family formation was a recent, current or imminent future issue, this article explores contemporary childlessness among those physically able to have children. It differentiates between those childless by choice and by circumstance, and among other themes highlights (i) the role preservation of lifestyle appears to play as a motive for deliberate childlessness following development of a life course through early adulthood that both generates lifestyle aspirations and often places parenthood on the backburner until after age 30, and (ii) the roles difficulty forming suitable relationships, women’s desire for meaningful careers, and male involvement in family formation decisions play in bringing about childlessness by circumstance.     

Generalizability of Gottman and Colleagues' Affective Process Models of Couples' Relationship Outcomes

The generalizability of Gottman et al's. (1998) affective process models was examined using a community-based sample of 85 married or cohabiting couples with at-risk backgrounds. Predictive associations between affective processes assessed at about age 21 years and relationship status and satisfaction approximately 2.5 years later were examined. The major findings of Gottman et al. failed to replicate. In particular, men's rejection of their partners' influence, the lack of men's deescalation of partners' negative affect, and women's negative start up were not predictive of relationship status. Further, differences in affective processes were found when comparing discussion sessions of the men's versus the women's chosen topics. The findings suggested that the validity and utility of the affective process models need further investigation.     

旅行家的召唤——徐霞客及其西南边陲之旅

徐霞客生前通过史无前例的、系统性与大规模的艰苦旅行,对中国八方所有的名山景观进行了考察,并因其对边陲地貌的细致考察而享有盛名。当时他选择追求自己的志趣,而没有陷入腐败政治和官僚体制的俗世纠缠,由此就像许多同时代的优秀文人一样被誉为奇人。现代知识分子反将他视为一个早期科学家的模型。通过对徐霞客西南边陲之旅的系统性考察,与明末文人"奇"和"癖"的话语相关联,由此提出,只有考虑到中国游记写作的历代仪式伦理功能,才能够更深刻地理解,为何徐霞客游记行为与思想方面的启发,远远超越了东西、古今之别,并提供了跨文化的社会更新潜力。