少奇同志百年祭——回忆与感怀

理论多承教诲深,党员修养见精神。 皖苏挺进开新局,齐鲁筹谋计远程。 创业功勋无愧怍,兴邦史绩有诠评, 一生备斗云何罪?冤雪昭昭警后人。 (一) 年近八旬如我者,静悟遐思之时,不免回顾本世纪铭刻于心的种种经历见闻。恰好今年正逢一些革命前辈、开国元勋如周恩来、彭德怀百年诞辰纪念,还有瞿秋白、陈毅、项英和其他一些英烈前辈的生辰也在距今100年前。只要想一想这一批忧国忧民、开天辟地、叱咤风云、奉献一生的人物,便足以体认现代中国革命路程之峥嵘曲折,场面之壮观宏伟,奋斗之坚韧不拔,牺牲之可歌可泣,弥足以启迪后辈,激励来兹了。     

The impact of children on a parent's risk of suicide following death of a spouse, Belgium 1991-96

Since Durkheim's work on suicide, the family has widely been seen as providing partial protection against the development of tendencies to suicide. This study assesses the impact of parenthood (both number of children and age of youngest child) on suicide following the death of a spouse. Using data for Belgium in the 5 years following the 1991 census, the study adopts a nested case-control design with information on 3,800 suicides and 75,673 matched controls. The analysis takes into account several social-economic variables. The findings show that the impact of children on the elevated suicide levels found among widows and widowers relative to the still married can be positive or negative, and differs by both age and sex of the parent, age of the child or children, and time since bereavement.     

A new estimate of permanent sterility by age: sterility defined as the inability to conceive

The proportion of couples permanently sterile beyond a certain age is an important component of the reproductive process. Unless medical assistance is used, this age is the upper bound of the fecund period. Most estimates of sterility by age of the woman have been derived from natural fertility populations, in which the number of births and the timing of the last birth (of the complete reproductive history) were not controlled by the couples. Because data on these populations do not include pregnancies not ending in a live birth, the sterility estimates apply to the proportion of couples unable to conceive and to have a live birth. For this reason, it is useful to have an estimate of sterility based on the risk of conceiving, independently of the fate of the pregnancy. Using this new estimate, sterility increases with age much more slowly than with most previous estimates.     

Moving and union dissolution

This paper examines the effect of migration and residential mobility on union dissolution among married and cohabiting couples. Moving is a stressful life event, and a large, multidisciplinary literature has shown that family migration often benefits one partner (usually the man) more than the other Even so, no study to date has examined the possible impact of within-nation geographical mobility on union dissolution. We base our longitudinal analysis on retrospective event-history data from Austria. Our results show that couples who move frequently have a significantly higher risk of union dissolution, and we suggest a variety of mechanisms that may explain this.     

The International Child Poverty Gap: Does Demography Matter?

According to the Luxembourg Income Study data, the U.S. child poverty rate is the second highest among 15 high-income nations. The present work reveals that 55% of all American children living in a household headed by a single female with no other adult present live in poverty-the highest rate for any of the five living arrangements in the 15 countries examined in this study. While previous analyses have focused on market forces and governmental redistribution across households, we question the contribution of demographic factors that place children in family structures with different poverty risks relative to other factors such as differential market opportunities and governmental benefits for adults caring for children in various living arrangements. Applying a classic demographic decomposition technique to the overall poverty gap, we find that the distributional effect of demographic behavior contributes little to the U.S. poverty gap with other nations (and none with respect to the United Kingdom). Overall differences in labor markets and welfare schemes best explain the U.S. child poverty gap, although for some countries, the gap is accentuated by the gradient of governmental transfers, and for most countries, by the gradient of market earnings across living arrangements.     

准噶尔汗国灭亡后的佚名史籍与卫拉特人的历史记忆

本文通过解读准噶尔汗国灭亡后卫拉特蒙古佚名氏史家撰写的几篇托忒文史籍,探讨当时卫拉特人对汗国灭亡的反思及对清准战争的历史记忆.几位史家的文本反映了"四卫拉特"这一历史框架的稳定性,以及卫拉特人在政治认同方面的一些变化.     

预防职务犯罪的网络监督机制的构建

随着互联网技术和我国民主政治的发展,迫切要求研究如何构建预防职务犯罪的网络监督机制。这一机制是指以预防职务犯罪为目的,在一定基本原则指导下,参与网络监督的各种构成要素相互影响、相互作用的过程和方式。＂一定基本原则＂应包括实事求是、依法监督和反腐倡廉三个原则;＂参与网络监督的各种构成要素＂主要有网络监督管理者、网络监督主体、网络监督对象、网络监督内容、网络监督手段和方式等。＂相互影响、相互作用的过程和方式＂主要包括预防职务犯罪的网络监督程序的启动、网络监督信息的处理、网络监督处理结果的反馈等三方面内容。     

IMPROVING POPULATION-SPECIFIC ALLELE FREQUENCY ESTIMATES BY ADAPTING SUPPLEMENTAL DATA: AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH

Estimation of the allele frequency at genetic markers is a key ingredient in biological and biomedical research, such as studies of human genetic variation or of the genetic etiology of heritable traits. As genetic data becomes increasingly available, investigators face a dilemma: when should data from other studies and population subgroups be pooled with the primary data? Pooling additional samples will generally reduce the variance of the frequency estimates; however, used inappropriately, pooled estimates can be severely biased due to population stratification. Because of this potential bias, most investigators avoid pooling, even for samples with the same ethnic background and residing on the same continent. Here, we propose an empirical Bayes approach for estimating allele frequencies of single nucleotide polymorphisms. This procedure adaptively incorporates genotypes from related samples, so that more similar samples have a greater influence on the estimates. In every example we have considered, our estimator achieves a mean squared error (MSE) that is smaller than either pooling or not, and sometimes substantially improves over both extremes. The bias introduced is small, as is shown by a simulation study that is carefully matched to a real data example. Our method is particularly useful when small groups of individuals are genotyped at a large number of markers, a situation we are likely to encounter in a genome-wide association study.     

Multiple-arm superiority and non-inferiority designs with various endpoints

Multiple-arm dose-response superiority trials are widely studied for continuous and binary endpoints, while non-inferiority designs have been studied recently in two-arm trials. In this paper, a unified asymptotic formulation of a sample size calculation for k-arm (k>0) trials with different endpoints (continuous, binary and survival endpoints) is derived for both superiority and non-inferiority designs. The proposed method covers the sample size calculation for single-arm and k-arm (k> or =2) designs with survival endpoints, which has not been covered in the statistic literature. A simple, closed form for power and sample size calculations is derived from a contrast test. Application examples are provided. The effect of the contrasts on the power is discussed, and a SAS program for sample size calculation is provided and ready to use.