Immigration to the Federal Republic of Germany as a demographic and social problem

"Addressing the question of immigration to Western Europe and especially to Germany from east and southeast Europe and from developing countries of the South, this article considers whether such immigration can compensate for reductions in population in developed countries. It is argued that the demographic deficits of an aging population can only be corrected to a limited extent through immigration. Any solution, in order to be effective, must include a simultaneous increase in the birthrates of Germany and other European Community countries. With particular regard to future social development in Germany and the EC, it would be advisable for governments to effect measures that will provide both for controlled admissions of immigrants from outside the EC and an increase in local reproductive capabilities."     

An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts

"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%." This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

Managed care information needs: a summary perspective

The key to survival in managed care is management of financial risk. You need to know what is in your contract and what you are obligated to do for which population during which period. Information systems can be an enormous help in managing managed care contracts and the financial risks they entail, but poorly selected and configured information systems will do little good for the organization that licenses them. The most important activity of a physician executive who is moving his or her organization into managed care contracting is to lead the process to define the functional requirements for information the organization will need to manage managed care contracts successfully.     

《新西兰文化与认同感·序言》

《新西兰文化与认同感·序言》大卫·诺维茨比尔·威尔莫特著涂开益徐永安译编选本书的初衷,源出编者在讨论新西兰民族认同感与文化的基本命题时,对于人们所持方式的关注。我们俩人一致认为,当时的争论有两点失之偏颇：一是如何准确理解被称之为文化的这种奇特现象,二...     

Immigration dilemmas

Recent trends in immigration to Poland are reviewed, including both voluntary migration and migration forced by extreme political or economic circumstances. Data are also presented on illegal immigrants and on their countries of origin.     

A tobacco and alcohol use profile of San Francisco's Chinese community

Relatively little is known about Asian American tobacco and alcohol use patterns. This is particularly true of Chinese living in the United States--either U.S.-born or non-U.S.-born Chinese. This article presents data from a research project studying tobacco and alcohol use patterns in San Francisco's Chinese community. Data were secured both from focus groups and a self-report telephone survey of a random sample of 1,808 Chinese residents in San Francisco. This results indicate that the prevalence of both tobacco and alcohol use is lower for San Francisco's Chinese population than for the general population. Moreover, those persons who report smoking tend to be different from those who report consuming alcohol. The study concludes that specific, culturally relevant tobacco and alcohol prevention programs should be designed to better reach this target population.     

Clinical reengineering. A benchmark strategy

The health care provider marketplace continues to undergo dramatic changes with the advent of hospital mergers, acquisitions, and physician and hospital alliances. In this era of managed care, cost containment is still vital to a hospital's success, but many stakeholders--patients, employers, and physicians--are determined that quality of care also remain paramount. How can hospitals reduce their expenses and maintain a quality focus? The answer lies in a successful clinical reengineering initiative. One progressive model of clinical reengineering is presented, as well as examples of initiatives at three health care institutions. Initial results of clinical redesign programs have been dramatic and encouraging, with documented evidence of simultaneous cost savings and improved patient care.     

Health care 2015: flight of the butterfly

Projecting out to the year 2015 sounds presumptuous. Who can predict that far ahead? Perhaps no one can. Social and organizational arrangements come slowly. It takes five years or so to implement simple concepts, sometimes decades for more radical changes. Once you have the ideas in tangible form, it can take another five years to get it working right. Early adopters bring others into the movement and, over 15-25 years, new directions dominate. It takes at least a generation of new practitioners to take on the new values and methods so what is likely to dominate in 2015 is beginning to be taken somewhat seriously as the successor movement to our current fad with externally imposed managed care. Put another way, entire generations of people will resist new ideas, making implementation unlikely until their control fades and a new generation takes the helm. The exciting challenge for the observer is to address the issue of where health is and should be going. Both are difficult challenges. Agreeing on what is important and what is not represents a competitive challenge. How do we perceive the world? Surely our value sets will color what we see. Who is not predisposed to select a future where they fit and their pet theories are likely to become reality. For these and other reasons, it is probably easier to agree on what we would like to see happen in the future than on what is happening. Unfortunately, unless we see the world as it is, we are less likely to be able to shift it in a direction we would like to see.