Fast robust feature screening for ultrahigh-dimensional varying coefficient models

In this paper, we propose a new partial correlation, the so-called composite quantile partial correlation, to measure the relationship of two variables given other variables. We further use this correlation to screen variables in ultrahigh-dimensional varying coefficient models. Our proposed method is fast and robust against outliers and can be efficiently employed in both single index variable and multiple index variable varying coefficient models. Numerical results indicate the preference of our proposed method.     

主导与依附并存——凉山彝族父系制社会中的母系文化特征研究

凉山彝族受祖先信仰观念影响,不仅强调世俗与神圣层面的性别角色分层,还重视阴阳两界的性别地位差异.本文梳理、诠释彝族女性主导日常生活、享有特殊权限和专有性别教材,以及女性灵魂的依附形式、归属转移、葬礼实质等文化事项,呈现了在世俗生活的日常事务领域,女性主导的日常杂事具有相对随便、量大琐碎和可以改变的性质,而在神圣生活层面的属灵事务领域她们依附父系或夫系的男性事务领域却往往具有超自然、异乎寻常、牢不可破、秩序功能、永恒特质和与祖界家园发生联系的特质.彝族父系制社会中的两性关系始终表现为主导与依附并存态势,唯具体内容、数量、程度等存有差异.     

Assessing the diversity of the benthic oligochaete communities in urban and woodland ponds in an industrial landscape (Upper Silesia,southern Poland)

Studies were carried out in two mining pond complexes in an industrial landscape. The first complex (consisting of six ponds) was located in an urban area and the second one (consisting of six ponds) in a woodland area. The aims of the study were to assess the diversity of benthic oligochaetes and to evaluate which environmental variables are most important in determining variations in the community structure in ponds of varying location. In total, 21 oligochaete species were recorded (7–11 in the urban ponds, 11–15 in the woodland ponds). Aulodrilus pluriseta, Aulodrilus japonicus and Ophidonais serpentina were only found in the woodland ponds, while Potamothrix bavaricus only occurred in the urban ponds. Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri, Limnodrilus claparedeanus, Chaetogaster diaphanus and Ophidonais serpentina dominated in the woodland ponds, whereas Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri, Limnodrilus claparedeanus, Potamothrix bavaricus and Tubifex tubifex prevailed in the urban ponds. The total density of oligochaetes was higher in the urban ponds thought the values of the diversity indices were higher in the woodland ponds. The local diversity of the ponds was high, while the among-site diversity made only a small contribution to the regional diversity. Nonetheless, a cluster analysis divided all of the ponds into two distinct groups depending on their location. CCA analysis showed that conductivity, pH, total hardness, alkalinity, the concentration of chlorides and the content of organic matter in the bottom sediments were most associated with the distribution of some oligochaete species among the ponds studied.     

明末至清中叶白山派发展述略

本文首先考察了玛哈图木·阿杂木其人其事与白山派的关系,其次着重探讨白山派的早期沿革史,重点放在阿帕克和卓以前的历史活动上.因这段历史比较模糊,易产生混乱,而阿帕克和卓以后的历史发展较清晰,且学术界作过不少研究,所以就这段历史略加叙述.     

民族院校人才培养理念的重构与教学管理制度的优化

长期以来,民族院校为民族地区的民主改革、经济建设、改革开放、社会稳定,为维护我国的民族团结和国家统一,为繁荣和弘扬各民族优秀文化做出了重要贡献.民族院校已经完成了自身的第一次跨越,即"正规化"--从非正规化的高等教育模式向普通高等教育模式转变,实现了由以干部培训为主向正规大学的跨越.目前,民族院校在新的形势下,如何实现第二次跨越,建设新型的现代化民族大学,显得尤为紧迫.本文重点论述了民族院校人才培养理念的重构与教学管理制度的优化两个关键问题.     

Birth Outcome Measures and Infant Mortality

Recent studies have proposed alternative birth outcome measures as means of assessing infant mortality risk; nevertheless, there hasn’t yet been an integrated analysis of these approaches. We review 14 strategies, including various combinations of birth weight, gestational age, fetal growth rate, and Apgar scores—as predictors of early neonatal, late neonatal, and postneonatal mortality, and infant mortality. Using the NCHS linked birth/infant death file for 2001, we construct multivariate logit models and assess the associations between each of the 14 key birth outcome measures and four mortality outcomes. We find that all evaluated birth outcome measures are strong predictors, but Apgar scores are the strongest among all models for all outcomes, independent of birth weight and gestational age. Apgar scores’ predictive power is stronger for Mexican-, white-, and female-infants than for black- and male-infants. Second, all birth outcome measures remain significantly associated with mortality, but their predictive power reduces drastically over time. These findings suggest a rule of thumb for predicting infant mortality odds: when available, Apgar scores should always be included along with birth weight (or LBW status) and gestational age. Additionally, these findings argue for the continued study of low birthweight, gestational age, and Apgar scores as independently salient health outcomes.     

劳动参与率与劳动力增长:1982～2050年

劳动参与率是影响劳动力变化的三要素之一。它一方面具备相对稳定的模式,另一方面又受到一系列个人和外部因素的影响。文章基于普查数据,着重分析了劳动参与的年龄模式和主要影响因素,并预测了未来劳动力的发展趋势。结果发现,中国劳动参与年龄模式正趋向于稳定的倒U形,存在着明显的性别、城乡差异。回归结果表明,高中以上受教育程度可大大提高劳动参与,特别是女性的劳动参与,表明人力资本是未来劳动力发展的一个根本因素。预测结果显示,劳动力规模10年后将不可避免地出现负增长,同时中老年劳动力的比重也会大幅上升。对此,应采取相应措施以减轻劳动力变化所带来的震荡。     

从第三方支付发展看上海国际金融中心建设

互联网时代第三方支付的发展,揭示了企业"控制用户信息流以控制支付流,控制支付流以控制资金流;获得用户网络接入权胜过获得资本所有权,获得数据投入量胜过获得资金投入量"的新规则。大平台日益成为金融机构控制用户信息流、获得用户网络接入权的重要载体,在平台组合上加载信用有关数据流日益成为形成金融机构风险管理能力的重要生产资料。在互联网时代推进上海国际金融中心建设,既要继续重视金融机构集聚,更要注重鼓励企业赢得全国性用户网络接入权,加强平台组合,增强信用数据流。上海应依托自贸试验区推进互联网金融监管创新;牵头建立长三角征信联盟集团公司;搭建本地金融机构网聚平台。     

DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH: A PERSPECTIVE FROM DEMOCRATIC EXPERIENCE

This article investigates the impact of democracy on growth by simultaneously considering a country's secular‐historical experience of democracy and current political regime. The results obtained show that the effect of democracy on growth exhibits an asymmetrical pattern depending on the country's democracy stock. Only in “democratic countries” with “prolonged experiences of democratic rule” can democracy promote growth. This claim stands in contrast to the earlier literature in which there is either no consistent relationship between growth and democracy or perhaps a nonlinear relationship. This conclusion provides circumstantial support for the claim of the “democracy promotes growth” hypothesis. (JEL O43)     

2015年国际经济形势分析判断

2015年,全球经济形势呈现新变化.世界经济缓慢复苏,发达经济体有所分化,新兴经济体面临困境;全球贸易投资在恢复性增长中继续格局调整,须关注超大区域集团的主导力量;长期低利率下蕴含的金融风险仍在积蓄,大宗商品市场进入调整期,部分发达经济体面临通缩风险;美国量化宽松政策退出,“后QE时代”全球流动性收缩可能对新兴经济体带来冲击.