劳动力转移的困境和挑战——基于对凉山彝族外出务工人员困境的思考

目前,在凉山彝区,外出务工是劳动力转移的主要方式,许多家庭通过外出务工脱贫致富。在当地无力承担和消化剩余劳动力的情况下,外出务工的现象将长期存在,正确认识彝区劳动力转移的合理性非常必要。为此笔者对四川凉山的冕宁、盐源等地彝区外出务工人员较多的村寨通过田野调查方式,了解当地劳动力转移的历史和现状,掌握存在的问题并分析其原因,提出解决思路和具体措施。应该建立劳动力转移的社会支持系统,继续不懈地积极推进劳动力转移工作。继续加大各级职业技术教育,增强劳动力转移的市场竞争力。加强法制教育,促进用人机构和彝族群众增强法制意识,依法促进彝族务工者的城市融入。进一步强化乡镇劳务开发工作体系建设,加强跨区域合作,倡导有序输出,规范对劳务经纪人的管理,强化劳务培训质量,提高彝族务工人员素质,保护彝族务工人员的合法益。     

公共支出绩效管理的国际比较与借鉴

提升公共支出绩效既体现了现代预算管理的变革趋势,又符合加强绩效管理的要求,是中国公共财政建设的改革方向。借鉴市场经济国家公共支出绩效管理的经验,需要结合具体国情,循序渐进地引入绩效管理的理念与制度框架,适时建立绩效评价结果与预算编制有机结合的预算约束机制。     

对苏联民族政策实践效果的反思——读萨尼教授(Ronald G.Suny)的《历史的报复:民族主义、革命和苏联的崩溃》

苏联解体两年后,美国密执安大学的萨尼教授(Ronald G.Suny)出版了<历史的报复:民族主义、革命和苏联的崩溃>(The Revenge of the Past:Nationalism,Revolution,and the Collapse of the Soviet Union,Stanford Universitv Press,1993).在这本书中,这位美国学者从民族主义的角度剖析苏联解体的原因,对苏联的民族理论、民族制度进行了系统的分析,讨论了在苏联解体过程中暴露出来的各种问题,并试图把民族问题的宏观理论和具体政策实践效果结合起来,反思苏联处理少数民族问题的理论思路和社会实践能够对人们理解和认识人类社会的"民族"现象提供哪些重要的启示,该书是一本不可多得的参考文献.本文原刊载于<领导者>(香港)2010年8月刊和10月刊,本刊转载得到授权.     

公共财政对就业经费投入比较研究(上)

工作是人们生活的核心,也是经济发展和社会和谐稳定的基石。为了有效地治理失业、促进就业,主要市场经济国家实施了一系列有利于促进就业的财政政     

Divorce Chinese Style

This study investigated divorce during China's social and economic transformation period from 1970 to 2012. Specifically, the study examined the trend development of divorce and demonstrated how marriage formation type and individual socioeconomic characteristics were associated with the likelihood of divorce across time. Event‐history analysis was applied to longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2012 waves). The results showed a threefold increase in divorce from the pre‐1990s to the 1990s. Surprisingly, the trend shifted to a plateau toward the 2000s. When cohabitation was in its rapidly diffusing stage in the 1990s, individuals who cohabited prior to marriage had a substantially higher likelihood of divorce. As cohabitation became increasingly common in the 2000s, its effect on divorce weakened. The role of socioeconomic characteristics in divorce also varied across time. This study enriches the knowledge of family dynamics in contemporary Chinese society.     

Participatory Art as a Social Practice of Commoning to Reinvent the Right to the City

The right to the city is a concept that helps rethink spatial–social dynamics, which has recently reinvigorated the field of organization studies. Following Lefebvre and considering the failure of both the market and the state, other scholars pinpoint the need to rethink social–spatial and geographical–historical relations. They do so by theorizing the city as a host for urban commons. Collective and non-commodified, these spatial–social experiences need to be constantly reproduced and preserved through commoning practices in the struggle against spatial injustice. A case study shows that a civil society organization (CSO) uses participatory art to (re)produce urban commons at the level of a local community and to redress partially spatial injustice. We theorize participatory art-making as a social practice of commoning, i.e., a process of organizing for the commons—collective art-based activities to serve a community—and of the common—to (re)produce a community while performing them. Such commoning practices are not only about sharing urban resources but also about using and experiencing differently urban spaces. By making participatory artworks in public spaces and co-designing street furniture with residents of poor areas, TDA helps to better cope with the tensions between residents and local authorities and between amateurs and professional artists. By negotiating the long-term implementation of these creative artworks in the public space with public authorities, TDA has fostered the empowerment of inhabitants as they have experienced citizens’ reappropriation of some public spaces in Marseille.     

明末至清中叶白山派发展述略

本文首先考察了玛哈图木·阿杂木其人其事与白山派的关系,其次着重探讨白山派的早期沿革史,重点放在阿帕克和卓以前的历史活动上.因这段历史比较模糊,易产生混乱,而阿帕克和卓以后的历史发展较清晰,且学术界作过不少研究,所以就这段历史略加叙述.     

民族院校人才培养理念的重构与教学管理制度的优化

长期以来,民族院校为民族地区的民主改革、经济建设、改革开放、社会稳定,为维护我国的民族团结和国家统一,为繁荣和弘扬各民族优秀文化做出了重要贡献.民族院校已经完成了自身的第一次跨越,即"正规化"--从非正规化的高等教育模式向普通高等教育模式转变,实现了由以干部培训为主向正规大学的跨越.目前,民族院校在新的形势下,如何实现第二次跨越,建设新型的现代化民族大学,显得尤为紧迫.本文重点论述了民族院校人才培养理念的重构与教学管理制度的优化两个关键问题.     

Birth Outcome Measures and Infant Mortality

Recent studies have proposed alternative birth outcome measures as means of assessing infant mortality risk; nevertheless, there hasn’t yet been an integrated analysis of these approaches. We review 14 strategies, including various combinations of birth weight, gestational age, fetal growth rate, and Apgar scores—as predictors of early neonatal, late neonatal, and postneonatal mortality, and infant mortality. Using the NCHS linked birth/infant death file for 2001, we construct multivariate logit models and assess the associations between each of the 14 key birth outcome measures and four mortality outcomes. We find that all evaluated birth outcome measures are strong predictors, but Apgar scores are the strongest among all models for all outcomes, independent of birth weight and gestational age. Apgar scores’ predictive power is stronger for Mexican-, white-, and female-infants than for black- and male-infants. Second, all birth outcome measures remain significantly associated with mortality, but their predictive power reduces drastically over time. These findings suggest a rule of thumb for predicting infant mortality odds: when available, Apgar scores should always be included along with birth weight (or LBW status) and gestational age. Additionally, these findings argue for the continued study of low birthweight, gestational age, and Apgar scores as independently salient health outcomes.     

劳动参与率与劳动力增长:1982～2050年

劳动参与率是影响劳动力变化的三要素之一。它一方面具备相对稳定的模式,另一方面又受到一系列个人和外部因素的影响。文章基于普查数据,着重分析了劳动参与的年龄模式和主要影响因素,并预测了未来劳动力的发展趋势。结果发现,中国劳动参与年龄模式正趋向于稳定的倒U形,存在着明显的性别、城乡差异。回归结果表明,高中以上受教育程度可大大提高劳动参与,特别是女性的劳动参与,表明人力资本是未来劳动力发展的一个根本因素。预测结果显示,劳动力规模10年后将不可避免地出现负增长,同时中老年劳动力的比重也会大幅上升。对此,应采取相应措施以减轻劳动力变化所带来的震荡。