Local estimation for varying-coefficient models with longitudinal data

Varying-coefficient models are very useful for longitudinal data analysis. In this paper, we focus on varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data. We develop a new estimation procedure using Cholesky decomposition and profile least squares techniques. Asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators of varying-coefficient functions has been established. Monte Carlo simulation studies show excellent finite-sample performance. We illustrate our methods with a real data example.     

Effects of attributed responsibility and response strategies on organizational reputation: A meta-analysis of situational crisis communication theory research

Scholars utilizing situational crisis communication theory (SCCT) mainly examine how attributed responsibility affects organizational reputation and how response strategies matched with the amount of attributed responsibility protect reputation. The findings on these 2 important questions have been mixed. A meta-analysis of 35 investigations from 24 studies published between January 1990 and March 2015 was conducted to explain the mixed findings and reveal average correlations. Attributed responsibility was strongly associated with reputation at –.54, and response strategies were only weakly associated with reputation at .23. Equally important, crisis vignette choice moderated the responsibility-reputation association. Crisis clusters, reputation measurements, sample choice, and crisis vignette choice moderated the match-reputation association. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications were discussed.     

比较思想政治教育研究概述

思想政治教育是一种普遍存在的实践活动，对于全世界各国的发展都有重要作用。因此，要重视对于思想政治教育的研究。比较思想政治教育研究作为一门年轻的学科，它在思想政治教育研究中占有重要地位。首先从必要性上看，它可以推动学科的进步与发展，在日常生活中也有其实际意义，是国家政治经济文化发展的需要。在指导思想方面，要以马克思主义的唯物论与辩证法为根本指导思想，坚持实事求是原则，建设有中国特色的比较思想政治教育研究。在发展状况方面，近20年来已取得长足的发展，但仍然存在偏重发达国家、未形成完整体系等不足。只有对此有正确深入的了解，运用正确的方式方法，才能促使比较思想政治教育研究健康地发展。     

医学人类学视角下促进大学生身心健康的作用机制与实践路径探究

医学人类学注重文化与健康关系的研究。本文认为,文化对大学生的身心健康具有极其重要的功能和作用,"以文促健"是医学人类学视角下促进大学生身心健康的基本观点与主张。文化对大学生身心健康促进功能的发挥在于其作用机制,在田野研究中发现和凝练的"文化对健康的输入-输出模型"以及相应的实践路径总结,是人类学视角下对大学生身心健康促进的新思考、新构建。本研究从医学人类学视角出发对大学生身心健康的促进机制与实践路径加以研究,能够从理论和实践层面加强对这一社会现实问题的认识与应对,同时为当前"新文科建设"倡导的学科交叉融合提供较好平台,还可以有效助推"健康中国"战略在高校和大学生群体中的实施。     

高速铁路桩板结构承载板伸缩温度力研究

以某高速铁路桩板结构路基工程为背景，研究了桩板结构路基单联跨数对承载板体伸缩温度应力的影响规律，提出了桩板结构的结构布置原则；并根据桩板结构路基具体结构特征，推导了计算结构整体升降温引起的承载板体伸缩温度应力计算公式，该解析式与空间有限元法计算结果较好吻合，可方便地计算承载板的伸缩温度应力。     

少数民族地区基层公务员晋升的影响因素研究——基于县处级正职领导干部的履历分析

由于自然环境、地理位置和历史等原因,我国少数民族地区经济社会发展长期落后于沿海发达地区,经济的"马太效应"直接波及到人才工作,反过来又制约了民族地区的经济社会发展。本文搜集并整理了西部G省L自治州2012年至今在任的226名县处级正职领导干部的简历,结合访谈与座谈的方式,从个人基本特征、从政经历和关系网络三个维度对影响少数民族地区基层公务员晋升的相关因素做了多元线性回归分析,剖析了我国少数民族地区基层公务员的晋升特点及规律,并提出了相关完善基层公务员晋升机制与干部人事制度改革的政策建议。     

Prevalence of Childhood Sexual Abuse in China: A Meta-Analysis

The objective of the current study was to explore the estimated prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in China. We conducted a meta-analysis that used the data from 36 articles. A total of 125 independent samples and 131,734 participants were included. The results revealed no significant difference in the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse between Chinese men (9.1%) and women (8.9%). The prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in studies from mainland areas was significantly higher than that from Hong Kong/Taiwan. The estimated prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in China also differed according to the definition of child sexual abuse, data collection method, year of data collection, and the mean age of participants at the time of assessment.     

Control Chart for Monitoring Autocorrelated Process with Multiple Exogenous Inputs

We propose to use AR-Sieve Bootstrap in the construction of a control chart of an autocorrelated process influenced by multiple exogenous inputs. The control charts are compared with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart through a simulation study. AR-Sieve bootstrap control limits are narrower than EWMA control limits. While the proposed method yields a higher rate of false alarms, it is quick in detecting even minimal structural changes.     

Optimal control strategies for dividend payments and capital injections in compound Markov binomial risk model with penalties for deficits

We consider the compound Markov binomial risk model. The company controls the amount of dividends paid to the shareholders as well as the capital injections in order to maximize the cumulative expected discounted dividends minus the discounted capital injections and the discounted penalties for deficits prior to ruin. We show that the optimal value function is the unique solution of an HJB equation, and the optimal control strategy is a two-barriers strategy given the current state of the Markov chain. We obtain some properties of the optimal strategy and the optimal condition for ruining the company. We offer a high-efficiency algorithm for obtaining the optimal strategy and the optimal value function. In addition, we also discuss the optimal control problem under a restriction of bounded dividend rates. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the algorithm and the impact of the penalties.     

民国时期的社会转型、政权建设与族群关系

中华民国时期是中国历史中最复杂和最动荡的时代。贯穿民国38年历史的有三条主线。第一条主线是中国各族人民坚持反对帝国主义侵略的斗争;第二条主线是中华民国下属各民族维护国家统一、与帝国主义支持的国内分裂势力的斗争。这两条主线是晚清"救亡图存"斗争的延续。第三条主线是探索如何实现国家体制的政治转型,实现从"多元型帝国"向现代"民族国家"的体制过渡和国民思想过渡。在整个民国期间,帝国主义别有用心地向中国各族群输入"民族"意识,并扶植代理人。民国历史中,最核心的利益是救国图存,捍卫中华民族的独立和领土完整。在评价民国所有的历史人物时,这是一条最根本的底线。