Adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data during a new drug development process

During a new drug development process, it is desirable to timely detect potential safety signals. For this purpose, repeated meta‐analyses may be performed sequentially on accumulating safety data. Moreover, if the amount of safety data from the originally planned program is not enough to ensure adequate power to test a specific hypothesis (e.g., the noninferiority hypothesis of an event of interest), the total sample size may be increased by adding new studies to the program. Without appropriate adjustment, it is well known that the type I error rate will be inflated because of repeated analyses and sample size adjustment. In this paper, we discuss potential issues associated with adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data conducted during a drug development process. We consider both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. A new drug development example is used to demonstrate the application of the methods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

违法相对论之困境、提倡与进路——以刑民、刑行交叉为视角

刑民交叉、刑行交叉的案件日益增多,违法相对论表现出在法学理论与司法实践中的双重困境:严格的违法一元论、缓和的违法一元论、违法相对论与违法多元论等理论之间概念混淆,界限不清;涉及违法性判断的同类案件适用标准不一、裁判结果各异.基于对不同违法性判断方法的规范性分析以及典型案件裁判结果的比较,可以发现,违法相对论在理论与实践中更具优势,符合法秩序统一性的要求.应当坚持违法相对论,走一条自我否定、不断优化、适时更新的发展路径,以有效解决违法性判断的难题,化解实践中同案异判的矛盾.     

Assessing Major Accident Risks to Support Land‐Use Planning Using a Severity‐Vulnerability Combination Method: A Case Study in Dagushan Peninsula,China

Major accident risks posed by chemical hazards have raised major social concerns in today's China. Land‐use planning has been adopted by many countries as one of the essential elements for accident prevention. This article aims at proposing a method to assess major accident risks to support land‐use planning in the vicinity of chemical installations. This method is based on the definition of risk by the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS (ARAMIS) project and it is an expansion application of severity and vulnerability assessment tools. The severity and vulnerability indexes from the ARAMIS methodology are employed to assess both the severity and vulnerability levels, respectively. A risk matrix is devised to support risk ranking and compatibility checking. The method consists of four main steps and is presented in geographical information‐system‐based maps. As an illustration, the proposed method is applied in Dagushan Peninsula, China. The case study indicated that the method could not only aid risk regulations on existing land‐use planning, but also support future land‐use planning by offering alternatives or influencing the plans at the development stage, and thus further enhance the roles and influence of land‐use planning in the accident prevention activities in China.     

近年来人类学、民族学关于城市少数民族流动人口研究现状的思考

近年来人类学、民族学界关于城市少数民族流动人口的研究形成了这样一些热点:文化(社会)适应研究、社会(城市)融入研究、社会支持研究、城市民族关系研究、公共服务与权益保障研究、服务管理与城市民族工作研究等。现有研究取得了巨大成绩,但也存在热点主题扎推、新的研究领域开拓不够、理论与方法创新交叉不强、田野民族志过少导致解释力弱化等不足。在总结成绩的同时客观分析其中存在的问题,不断采取跨学科的视角,积极借鉴多学科理论、方法,是适应未来中国社会发展需要,在城市民族问题研究方面取得更大成绩的必然要求。     

女性书写话语权的突破——以宋代历史转折时刻的诗词创作为中心

中国古代女诗人的诗作大多风格柔婉缠绵,鲜有直面现实、反映社会历史事件的作品。但在靖康之变与南宋覆灭之际,宋代女词人在家国倾覆的时代遽变冲击下,突破了男性话语权的重围,创作了不少反映社会现实和心灵创痛的词作,见证了历史的转折和时代的艰辛。这种另类的女性文学书写,不仅抒写了她们的离乱哀思,更大的价值在于突破了男性对话语权的垄断,刻画了宋代知识女性的形象,在一定程度上弥补了正史对女性的忽略。     

恐慌、谣言、谎言: 重大突发疫情舆论传播的内在心理驱动与管控

重大突发疫情引发的恐慌、谣言、谎言既具有一般性,也具有特殊性.重大突发疫情产生的恐慌具有突发性、应急性.因重大突发疫情而产生的恐慌性谣言、谎言有其形式和内容上的特殊性.重大突发疫情的恐慌类型决定和影响谣言、谎言传播的形式和内容.谣言、谎言对社会都具有不同程度的危害性,但也需要辩证分析.谣言和谎言具有一定程度的道德性,具有责任伦理的特征.对重大突发疫情产生的恐慌、谣言、谎言及其舆论要实行道德性、法治性管控,因此建立自由、公开、透明的问责体制与机制显得十分迫切和必要.     

一种新型的IGBT驱动保护电路

本文介绍了一种新型的性能较完善的ＩＧＢＴ驱动保护电路,实验结果表明,该电路能快速,安全,可靠地实现保护功能。     

甘肃少数民族经济可持续发展问题研究──仅以临夏回族自治州为例

发展经济是实现甘肃省少数民族繁荣的首要任务。根据甘肃省民族地区目前的现状和特点,进一步加快经济建设的速度已势在必行。但由于各种原因,在民族地区许多方面尚存在着严重制约经济可持续发展的不利因素。应当逐渐地排除这些不利因素,使之与经济发展相协调、相适应,以实现少数民族经济发展的良性循环     

性别反串的再流行:从"朱碧石"走红说起

2016年,一夜走红的"朱碧石"成为当下性别反串表演最为典型的角色之一.通过回顾"朱碧石"的走红历程,探析其走红背后的社会因素,反思其对性别观念和认知的影响,进一步认知性别反串表演的现状与趋势.性别反串表演本质是一种跨界行为,其流行背后是群体对于越界快感和思想解放的诉求.性别反串表演在模糊性别边界的同时,加固性别边界;在模糊美丑边界的同时,促进审美多元化;在模糊异同边界的同时,提升社会包容度.