Antisocial Behavior of Adoptees and Nonadoptees: Prediction from Early History and Adolescent Relationships

This study examined the contribution of demographic characteristics, early maltreatment, and peer and family relationships during adolescence to the prediction of aggressive and nonaggressive antisocial behavior (AASB and NAASB, respectively) during young adulthood; and determined whether adoption status has additional ability to predict ASB, once background, early experience, peer, and family variables were controlled. Data from adolescent and parent interviews were used from Waves 1 (predictors) and 3 (outcomes) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). The sample included 337 adopted and 10,339 nonadopted adolescents whose mean ages were 15.8 at W1 and 21.7 at W3. Although AASB and NAASB were predicted by background characteristics, early maltreatment, peer relations, and family relationships, adoption status had little to no additional predictive power once the other variables were controlled.     

Evaluations and Future Plans After Casual Sexual Experiences: Differences Across Partner Type

Casual sexual relationships and experiences (CSREs) are common among emerging adults, and their diversity may contribute to variability in their associations with mental health and future romantic relationship development. The present research used multiple regression analyses to examine how CSRE type (casual dating, friends with benefits [FWB], or booty call/one-night stand) is associated with short-term outcomes of these experiences, including positive and negative evaluations, plans to start a romantic relationship with a CSRE partner, and general plans for future CSREs. College students and non-college-attending emerging adults (N = 192, 80% female, mean age = 22.09 years) reported on recent sexual encounters through daily diaries collected around an alcohol consumption holiday. Individuals with casual dating partners evaluated their experiences more positively and/or less negatively than individuals with booty calls/one-night stands; these associations were moderated by gender and sexual behavior type. Individuals with casual dating partners were more oriented toward pursuing a romantic relationship with their partners than individuals with FWB or booty calls/one-night stands. However, no association was found between CSRE type and plans for future CSREs in general. Results highlight the diversity of CSREs and suggest that casual dating may be more rewarding than FWB and booty calls/one-night stands, particularly for women.     

The Interplay between Educational Achievement, Occupational Success, and Well-Being

Many studies have examined the effect of life events, education, and income on well-being. Conversely, research concerning well-being as a predictor of life course outcomes is sparse. Diener’s suggestion “to inquire about the effects of well-being on future behavior and success” has, with some exceptions, not yet come to fruition. This article contributes to this body of research. We conceptualize and analyze the interplay between educational achievement, occupational success, and well-being as a complex process. The relationship between these domains is examined drawing on a structure-agency framework derived from Bourdieu and Social Comparison Theory. Social comparison between adolescents and their parents is suggested to be the mechanism explaining the effects of successful and unsuccessful intergenerational transmission of educational achievement and occupational success on well-being. It is further argued that well-being may serve as an individual resource by fostering educational and occupational outcomes. Panel data from the Transition from Education to Employment (TREE) project, a Swiss PISA 2000 follow-up study, was used. The interplay between well-being and successful and unsuccessful intergenerational transfer of educational attainment was analyzed in an autoregressive cross-lagged mixture model framework. Social comparison was found to be related to well-being, while well-being proved to significantly increase the probability of successful intergenerational transfer of educational attainment.     

Comment on state space modeling of multiple time series

This paper raises some interpretative issues that arise from univariate trend–cycle decompositions with correlated disturbances. In particular, it discusses whether the interpretation of a negative correlation as providing evidence for the prominence of real, or supply, shocks, can be supported.

For this purpose it determines the conditions under which correlated components may originate from the underestimation of the cyclical component in an orthogonal decomposition; from the presence of a growth rate cycle, rather than a deviation cycle; or alternatively, as a consequence of the hysteresis phenomenon. Finally, it considers interpreting correlated components in terms of permanent–transitory decompositions, where the permanent component has richer dynamics than a pure random walk.

The consequences for smoothing and signal extraction are discussed: in particular, it is documented that a negative correlation implies that future observations carry most of the information needed to assess cyclical stance. As a result, the components will be subject to underestimation in real time and thus to high revisions. The overall conclusion is that the characterization of economic fluctuations in macroeconomic time series largely remains an open issue.     

Wachstumsbedingungen von Ein-Personen-Gründungen – Eine Längsschnittbeobachtung über acht Jahre

This study analyzes the growth potential of one-person startups on the basis of the framework model proposed by Gilbert, McDougall and Audretsch (2006) by postulating five key groups of enterprise growth predictors: entrepreneur characteristics, resources, strategy, industry, and organizational structures and systems. The framework model was adapted to suit the specific circumstances of one-person startups. The model was tested using a longitudinal data set comprising 188 Austrian one-person startups which were observed over a period of eight years. At the end of the observation period, the businesses included in the study had an average of 1.33 employees. The gender of the founder, capital requirements at the time of establishment, and growth strategy proved to be the most important predictors of growth. In addition, human capital resources also tended to have a positive impact. In summary, it is possible to draw empirically reliable conclusions about growth potential on the basis of the “seriousness” of an one-person startup project.     

Demographic aspects of educational expansion and labour-force development in the federal republic of germany

This paper assesses the impact of the baby boom and the subsequent decline of fertility to below-replacement level for both the educational system and the labour market. The experience of the last 25 years is documented and projections through to 2030 are presented. Particular attention is paid to comparison of the effects of demographic change with the effects of changing educational needs and aspirations.     

Bayesian analysis of the scatterometer wind retrieval inverse problem: some new approaches

Summary.  The retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer observations is a non-linear inverse problem. A common approach to solving inverse problems is to adopt a Bayesian framework and to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest given the observations by using a likelihood model relating the observations to the parameters, and a prior distribution over the parameters. We show how Gaussian process priors can be used efficiently with a variety of likelihood models, using local forward (observation) models and direct inverse models for the scatterometer. We present an enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from the resulting multimodal posterior distribution. We go on to show how the computational complexity of the inference can be controlled by using a sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm for estimation with Gaussian processes. This helps to overcome the most serious barrier to the use of probabilistic, Gaussian process methods in remote sensing inverse problems, which is the prohibitively large size of the data sets. We contrast the sampling results with the approximations that are found by using the sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm.     

Strikes and the real wage-employment nexus: A hicksian analysis of industrial disputes and pay

This paper advances and analyzes a simple model of industrial conflict and pay dynamics. In addition to its account of these endogenous variables, the model exhibits a potential to account for stagflationary episodes of the type experienced by large parts of the world economy in the 1970s. The analysis also contributes to a central but still unsettled question in business cycle theory (and empirics): namely, whether real-wage movements respond systematically to fluctuations in employment and output. With some success the model is applied to the West German economy. Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, University of Basel. I should like to thank Peter Bernholz for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft is gratefully acknowledged. More recent contributions to this discussion are Scarth and Myatt (1980) and McDonald and Solow (1981).