Empirical bayesInterval estimates: An application to geographical epidemiology

Summary Empirical Bayes estimates have been advocated as an improvement for mapping rare diseases or health events aggregated in small areas. In particular different parametric approaches have been proposed for dealing with non-normal data, assuming that disease occurrencies follow non-homogeneous Poisson law, whose parameters are treated as random variables. This paper shows how to conduct a complete Empirical Bayes analysis under an exchangeable model in the context of Geographical Epidemiology. Three different approaches for defining confidence limits obtained using a parametric bootstrap are compared: method 1 relies only on the first and second moment of the bootstrapped posterior distributions; method 2 computes the centiles of the bootstrapped posteriors; method 3 equates to α the average of the probabilities derived from the estimated bootstrapped cumulative posterior distributions. The simple Poisson-Gamma formulation was used to model mortality data on Larynx Cancer in the Local Health Units of Tuscany (1980–82 males). Two areas of significant elevated risk are identified.     

Sub-Optimal Acquisition Decisions under a Majority Shareholder System

The high separation of ownership from control achieved through the concurrent use of non-voting shares and stock pyramiding could favor acquisitions made to increase private benefits of the controlling shareholders rather than all shareholders wealth. A standard event study methodology is carried out on three different samples of Italian acquisitions during the 1989–1996 period in order to test this hypothesis. We find evidence that a worse market reaction characterizes acquiring firms with a higher separation of ownership from control, while more value-enhancing transactions are undertaken by those smaller in size and with higher prior-performance. An entrenchment effect seems to determine a significant U-shaped relationship between the market reaction and the ultimate shareholder ownership. When the sample is restricted to acquiring firms with a dual class equity structure we find that non-voting shares report significantly negative excess returns in contrast to significantly higher positive returns for voting shares. Such evidence seems to indicate that the average acquisition has been overpaid, as suggested by the negative market reaction of the non-voting shares, while it was expected to lead to higher private benefits to the majority shareholders, as suggested by the revaluation of the voting shares. Finally, the market reaction to acquisitions made within pyramidal groups seems to indicate that the price is set so as to transfer wealth towards the companies located at the upper levels, where majority shareholders own greater fractions of the companies cash flows.JEL Codes: G34, G14A previous version of this paper was presented at the 1999 EFMA Conference in Paris, 1999 EFA Conference in Helsinki, and 1999 Australasian Banking and Finance Conference in Sydney. We would like to thank for helpful comments and suggestions, in alphabetical order: Lorenzo Caprio, Mara Faccio, Katiuscia Manzoni, Giovanni Siciliano, Sandro Sandri, the two anonymous referees and the editor. We would also like to thank Mara Faccio for providing ownership data. All remaining errors are ours.     

A multilevel Bayesian model for contextual effect of material deprivation

The relationship between socioeconomic factors and health has been studied in many circumstances. Whether the association takes place at individual level only, or also at population level (contextual effect) is still unclear. We present a multilevel hierarchical Bayesian model to investigate the joint contribution of individual and population-based socioeconomic factors to mortality, using data from the census cohort of the general population of the city of Florence, Italy (Tuscany Longitudinal Study, 1991-1995). Evidence supporting a contextual effect of deprivation on mortality at the very fine level of aggregation is found. Inappropriate modelling of individual and aggregate variables could strongly bias effect estimates.Received: 10 January 2002, Revised: 23 June 2003, The research on Tuscany Longitudinal Study (Studio Longitudinale Toscano, SLTo) was supported by the Regione Toscana Servizio Statistica.     

Suicide risk and exposure to mobbing

The aim of this study was to study suicide risk in subjects exposed to mobbing, that is, systematic psychological harassment in the workplace. Such psychological harassment, unique to the workplace, threatens both the emotional well-being and professional ability of its victims. The items of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2) that assess suicide risk were studied in 102 individuals who were exposed to mobbing. The results indicated that individuals exposed to mobbing had clear differences on the MMPI-2 from normative samples. In addition, those who appeared to be at risk for suicide differed in their scores from those not at risk. Implications for psychopathology and suicide preventions are discussed.     

Likelihood-based risk estimation for variance-gamma models

Although the variance-gamma distribution is a flexible model for log-returns of financial assets, so far it has found rather limited applications in finance and risk management. One of the reasons is that maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters is not straightforward. We develop an EM-type algorithm based on Nitithumbundit and Chan (An ECM algorithm for skewed multivariate variance gamma distribution in normal mean–variance representation, arXiv:1504.01239, 2015) that bypasses the evaluation of the full likelihood, which may be difficult because the density is not in closed form and is unbounded for small values of the shape parameter. Moreover, we study the relative efficiency of our approach with respect to the maximum likelihood estimation procedures implemented in the VarianceGamma and ghyp R packages. Extensive simulation experiments and real-data analyses suggest that the multicycle ECM algorithm gives the best results in terms of root-mean-squared-error, for both parameter and value-at-risk estimation. The performance of the routines in the ghyp R package is similar but not as good, whereas the VarianceGamma package produces worse results, especially when the shape parameter is small.     

Cross-Atlantic implications of the new US policy mix

This paper will assess implications of shifting policy mix in the US for global imbalances and adjustment, with a focus on the euro area, using the European Commission’s QUEST model. Following early market euphoria after the elections on the account of expected “decisive” pro-market policies, uncertainty regarding the composition and timing of the new administration's economic policies has been the norm. Early proposals included a substantial fiscal stimulus which, combined with a tightening monetary stance, was expected to drive up long-run interest rates and the dollar, leading to widening global imbalances and potential instability. Today the expansionary impact of the fiscal plans is the subject of a heated debate while monetary policy continues to tighten steadily and risks related to a protectionist trade agenda remain pronounced. Contrary to initial expectations, real interest rates and the dollar have weakened, while global imbalances persist. Addressing policy and structural needs in the US – and abroad – is a necessary condition to rein in global imbalances. In this context, this paper will discuss the role of the G20/G7 to promote a coordinated policy approach and in particular to what extent the G20/G7 can deal with the transition from crisis management to the balancing of heterogeneous preferences among the policy makers to promote global growth and stability.     

THE EFFECT OF HOUSING WEALTH LOSSES ON SPENDING IN THE GREAT RECESSION

We use panel data on a complete inventory of household spending and assets to estimate the spending response to the sharp and largely unexpected declines in house values that occurred in the Great Recession. Our study complements the existing literature on this topic by relying exclusively on longitudinal micro data on both household wealth and expenditure. Our data span the period 2002–2012, allowing us to separate trends in spending from innovations in response to unexpected wealth changes. We find the marginal propensity to consume out of an unexpected housing wealth change to be 6 cents per dollar among older American households. (JEL D12, D14, E21)     

Toponymy as Method: Official Italian Rhetoric,History and the Foibe

This paper examines the victimization policy in Italian history through a multifaceted investigation of Italian toponymy: statistics, history, and communication. The investigation shows that the attitudes of victimhood and chauvinism in the public discourse concerning the Italian past became not only socially prevalent but also part of the official rhetoric of the Republic. These narratives resulted in moral shifts concerning the national past, and the foibe (mass killings in Northeast Italy at the end of World War II) became the most representative and celebrated event, as testified by the co‐occurrence of the concept of “martyrdom” with the foibe.     

Explaining subnational variations in early childhood education and care. A fuzzy‐set analysis of the Italian case

Although cross‐country differences in the development of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services have been widely researched, the pronounced subnational variation that characterizes many countries is little researched. This article aims to contribute filling this gap by investigating the factors underlying ECEC development in Italian regions, where take‐up rates of public and subsidized daycare centers, behind a national average of 12%, range from 2% in some Southern regions to 25% in Emilia Romagna (North‐East). The article explores the configurations of economic, socio‐demographic, political, institutional, and cultural factors possibly responsible for high and low ECEC development through Fuzzy‐set/Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Results show that economic development and female employment are necessary but not sufficient conditions for ECEC development; similarly, familistic values, the lack of early ECEC development and of social capital are necessary but not sufficient conditions for limited expansion. The analysis identifies multifaceted patterns of (non)expansion, thus demonstrating the complexity of social policy development processes and preventing determinism based on need, cultural, or economic factors.     

A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630

This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40–60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical–demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.