On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment

A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM)^(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. ⁴ than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables.     

Microaggressions,perceptions of campus climate,mental health,and alcohol use among first-year college students of color

Depressive and anxiety symptoms are increasingly common, and problematic alcohol use remains prevalent in college. To expand on prior research on mostly white samples, we surveyed first-year students of color from our predominately white university (Southeastern US) to identify risk factors for mental health symptoms and potentially co-occurring problematic alcohol use. Results showed significant associations between microaggressions and poor campus climate (hypothetical predictors) with depressive, anxiety, somatic symptoms (hypothetical outcomes) that were indirectly linked through perceived stress, poor sleep, and academic burnout (hypothetical mediators). Poor campus climate, academic burnout, and using alcohol to cope were the most relevant to alcohol use disorder symptoms. Results support efforts to address and reduce racial microaggressions and promote a positive campus climate for all.     

Why ownership matters

The main argument of this article is that corporate planners have tended to concentrate on subjects such as control of business strategies, financial management and global economic assessment; they have paid too little attention to the ownership of corporate entities. Apart from the overwhelming economic and social arguments in favour of dispersed ownership, there is increasing evidence that companies which adopt a positive planning approach to the ownership of their business will derive wider benefits. Much more statistical and attitudinal evaluation is required; individual companies need to support the macro-work of academic research with detailed micro-studies at the company level. If these studies continue to support the basic argument, there are positive steps which each company will be able to take to support the cause of wider ownership.     

Nutritional Status from 1 to 15 Years and Adolescent Learning for Boys and Girls in Ethiopia,India, Peru,and Vietnam

Population Research and Policy Review - There has been little examination of: (1) associations of early-life nutrition and adolescent cognitive skills, (2) if they vary by gender, (3) if...     

The managerial power approach: Is it testable?

Journal of Management and Governance - The central hypothesis of the managerial power approach (MPA) states that power is the main driver of executive compensation. The positive impact of power on...