Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

Climate justice and sustained transnational mobilization

ABSTRACT

Samir Amin’s final essay called for the creation of a new international organization of progressive social forces. Here I review evidence from twenty-first century transnational movements germane for understanding the likelihood of the emergence of such an international organization and the issues and sectors most likely to facilitate coalitional unity. More specifically, the ecological crises identified by Amin in the form of global warming and climate change have created an unprecedented global environmental threat capable of unifying diverse social strata across the planet. The climate justice movement has already established a global infrastructure and template to coordinate a new international organization for confronting neoliberal forms of globalization. Pre-existing movement organizing around environmental racism, climate justice in the global South, and recent intersectional mobilizations serve as promising models for building an enduring international organization that will represent subaltern groups and have a substantial impact on world politics.     

Risk and Quantification: A Linguistic Study

In risk analysis and research, the concept of risk is often understood quantitatively. For example, risk is commonly defined as the probability of an unwanted event or as its probability multiplied by its consequences. This article addresses (1) to what extent and (2) how the noun risk is actually used quantitatively. Uses of the noun risk are analyzed in four linguistic corpora, both Swedish and English (mostly American English). In total, over 16,000 uses of the noun risk are studied in 14 random (n = 500) or complete samples (where n ranges from 173 to 5,144) of, for example, news and magazine articles, fiction, and websites of government agencies. In contrast to the widespread definition of risk as a quantity, a main finding is that the noun risk is mostly used nonquantitatively. Furthermore, when used quantitatively, the quantification is seldom numerical, instead relying on less precise expressions of quantification, such as high risk and increased risk. The relatively low frequency of quantification in a wide range of language material suggests a quantification bias in many areas of risk theory, that is, overestimation of the importance of quantification in defining the concept of risk. The findings are also discussed in relation to fuzzy‐trace theory. Findings of this study confirm, as suggested by fuzzy‐trace theory, that vague representations are prominent in quantification of risk. The application of the terminology of fuzzy‐trace theory for explaining the patterns of language use are discussed.     

Revanchist Masculinity: Gender Attitudes in Sex Work Management

Pimps, or male managers of female sex workers, are commonly represented in popular culture as hypermasculine and as a ubiquitous part of sex work. However, there is little empirical scholarship on pimps or the construction of their masculinity. Drawing on ethnographic and interview data, this article demonstrates how pimps produce a “revanchist masculinity” that seeks to reclaim power from women and establish status over other men. Pimps are suspicious of sex workers’ motives and deny them decision‐making power and profit sharing—processes that highlight how work practices can structure gender identity construction.     

Bioaccessibility and Risk of Exposure to Metals and SVOCs in Artificial Turf Field Fill Materials and Fibers

To reduce maintenance costs, municipalities and schools are starting to replace natural grass fields with a new generation synthetic turf. Unlike Astro‐Turf, which was first introduced in the 1960s, synthetic field turf provides more cushioning to athletes. Part of this cushioning comes from materials like crumb rubber infill, which is manufactured from recycled tires and may contain a variety of chemicals. The goal of this study was to evaluate potential exposures from playing on artificial turf fields and associated risks to trace metals, semi‐volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by examining typical artificial turf fibers (n = 8), different types of infill (n = 8), and samples from actual fields (n = 7). Three artificial biofluids were prepared, which included: lung, sweat, and digestive fluids. Artificial biofluids were hypothesized to yield a more representative estimation of dose than the levels obtained from total extraction methods. PAHs were routinely below the limit of detection across all three biofluids, precluding completion of a meaningful risk assessment. No SVOCs were identified at quantifiable levels in any extracts based on a match of their mass spectrum to compounds that are regulated in soil. The metals were measurable but at concentrations for which human health risk was estimated to be low. The study demonstrated that for the products and fields we tested, exposure to infill and artificial turf was generally considered de minimus, with the possible exception of lead for some fields and materials.     

Contributions and Challenges to Clinical Practice from Buddhist Psychology

Psychotherapy is considered to belong to a branch of medicine, and adheres to many conventions of the medical model. As psychotherapists continue to embrace mindfulness (a foundational practice derived from Buddhist psychology), the way we understand suffering and what is to be done about it may be informed by the insights gained in mindfulness practice. Some of these insights depart in degree and in type from the assumptions underlying the medical model, as well as from prevalent ideas of suffering, treatment, and most challenging, the idea of the self who is assumed to be at the center of suffering. By examining a number of influences of mindfulness on clinical practice, the author suggests subtle and potentially radical influences on the way we think of the healing process. It is hypothesized that the Buddhist model may offer a transtheoretical and transcultural model of suffering and its treatment.