The Seveso Directive: An Italian Pilot Study in Enabling Communication

In 1982 the Council of the European Communities issued a Directive on the Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities, commonly known as the Seveso Directive. Besides other requirements, the Directive specifies that members of the public liable to be affected by a major accident from certain industrial activities must be informed of safety measures and how they should behave in the event of an accident. The Directive was subsequently amended in an extensive way. Upon the transposition of the Seveso Directive and its amendments into national legislations, the 12 European Member States are faced with the task of "appropriately and effectively" informing the public about major accident hazards. Delays are observed throughout the community, both in transposing the Directives and implementing public information. A pilot study on "Risk Information Needs" was commissioned and carried out at two Seveso sites in Italy in order to begin to resolve some of the problems involved in the provision of public information and to suggest appropriate guidelines. One hundred subjects answered an experimental protocol designed to assess their "information needs." This article presents the theoretical background, the pragmatic aims, and the design of the study. It also summarizes its most relevant findings and suggests some recommendations for the provision of information to the public.     

International and internal migration decision making: a value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province

"The study compares determinants of internal and international migration intentions, drawing upon interview data from a sample of adults in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines. A regression model is applied to test the relative determinants of intentions to migrate to Manila and to Hawaii. The study is based on a value-expectancy model of migration decision making. The results document the importance of subjective expectations related to the attainment of different values and goals in Manila and Hawaii."     

南京市自主创新能力的现状分析

运用企业自主创新能力的评价指标体系,对南京市自主创新能力水平进行纵向和横向比较,可以比较好地把握其自主创新能力的现状。通过对南京市近四年自主创新能力指标的纵向比较,不难发现除了自主创新环境之外,南京市的自主创新资源、自主创新活动以及自主创新产出能力均有较大幅度的增长;通过将南京市与三大科技竞争力较强的城市自主创新能力指标进行横向比较,指出了南京市在自主创新能力上存在的突出问题。一是工业增加值率过低,二是研发经费过低。并在此基础上提出一系列对策和建议。对于提高南京自主创新能力水平,无疑具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。     

福柯和自由主义:理性,革命和反抗

在1978-1979年法兰西学院的演讲中,福柯引入了"管治能力"的概念.这个概念来自于基督教的牧师形象.由此出发,与马克思主义的政治经济学批判不同,福柯对自由主义持一定的赞赏态度.福柯和马克思都参与了宏大叙事的一般构架的建立,但他们的政治和哲学前提是不同的.马克思根植于自然法的传统走向革命,福柯则继承了英国激进主义传统走向反抗.这两种传统是可以进行深入对话的.     

论西方文化中自我意识的隐喻表达

自我意识一直是人文社会科学的重要课题之一.人只有了解自我,才能对社会和人的生存状态有更深刻的理解.本文从隐喻的视角观照人的自我意识,分析人与人的社会关系、劳动创造与物质拥有对于人的自我意识的影响,以及人以自我为中心衡量万物哲学命题的内涵.     

Semiparametric Bayesian classification with longitudinal markers

Summary.  We analyse data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The data are observed values of the β human chorionic gonadotropin hormone measured during the first 80 days of gestational age, including from one up to six longitudinal responses for each woman. The main objective in this study is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes from data that are available at the early stages of pregnancy. We achieve the desired classification with a semiparametric hierarchical model. Specifically, we consider a Dirichlet process mixture prior for the distribution of the random effects in each group. The unknown random-effects distributions are allowed to vary across groups but are made dependent by using a design vector to select different features of a single underlying random probability measure. The resulting model is an extension of the dependent Dirichlet process model, with an additional probability model for group classification. The model is shown to perform better than an alternative model which is based on independent Dirichlet processes for the groups. Relevant posterior distributions are summarized by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Power of the Neyman Smooth Test for Evaluating Multivariate Forecast Densities

We compare and investigate Neyman's smooth test, its components, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test for testing the uniformity of multivariate forecast densities. Simulations indicate that the KS test lacks power when the forecast distributions are misspecified, especially for correlated sequences of random variables. Neyman's smooth test and its components work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are size distortions. The components provide directed diagnosis regarding the kind of departure from the null. For illustration, the tests are applied to forecast densities obtained from a bivariate threshold model fitted to high-frequency financial data.     

用氢作涡流室柴油机副燃料的可能性研究

用 S195柴油机为试验样机,采取在进气过程中吸入少量氢气的方法,通过台架试验及分析,探讨了用氢作为涡流室柴油机副燃料的可能性及其实用价值。结果表明,吸入副燃料氢能显著改善燃烧,提高发动机性能,但保证性能良好的许用吸氢量具有一定限度,并存在最佳值;用氢作副燃料时,仅需适当增大涡流室通道截面比,而无需变动燃烧系统其它参数,即可获得较好效果。