A new estimation method for Weibull-type tails based on the mean excess function

Studying the right tail of a distribution, one can classify the distributions into three classes based on the extreme value index γ$\gamma$. The class γ>0$\gamma >0$ corresponds to Pareto-type or heavy tailed distributions, while γ<0$\gamma <0$ indicates that the underlying distribution has a finite endpoint. The Weibull-type distributions form an important subgroup within the Gumbel class with γ=0$\gamma =0$. The tail behaviour can then be specified using the Weibull tail index. Classical estimators of this index show severe bias. In this paper we present a new estimation approach based on the mean excess function, which exhibits improved bias and mean squared error. The asserted properties are supported by simulation experiments and asymptotic results. Illustrations with real life data sets are provided.     

旅游业背景下侗族传统民居的文化意义与变迁——对广西三江林溪侗族村寨的田野考察

旅游业的发展增强了当地政府对居住习俗等传统民族文化的保护意识,同时也面临着满足居民改造民居的需求和保护旅游社区原始风貌二者之间的矛盾;为满足居民的合理需求,在政策上应促进社区居民共同参与旅游规划和管理,同时培养地方传统工匠进行景区内民居等建筑景观的设计和施工,以保持社区人文景观的民族特色.     

军事熟语的文化特征

军事熟语是在中华民族的长期语言实践中反复加工锤炼而成的哲理性语言.它具有客观辩证的思维方式:联系发展的动态理念和把握全局的宏观视角;具有历史性:以谋为本的文化倾向,以治为胜的治军传统和追求全胜的最高境界;具有民族性:爱好和平的心理愿望和团结一心的民族气节.     

Predicting the recipients of social work support,and its impact on emotional and behavioural problems in early childhood

This paper examines the recipients of social work support in the Millennium Cohort Study. Using panel analysis and fixed effects models, it investigates the factors that lead to the receipt of any type of social work support for individuals with young children and the effects of this support on changes in the prevalence of emotional and behavioural problems in these children. We find that divorce or separation, and episodes of homelessness are two important factors that lead to the receipt of social work support. Mothers with male children are also more likely to receive social work support. However, we find no clear evidence that social work support has any effect on changes in children's emotional and behavioural problems over time. The implications of these findings for social work research and for practice and policy are discussed.     

Children of Migrants: The Cumulative Impact of Parental Migration on Children’s Education and Health Outcomes in China

Since the end of 1990s, approximately 160 million Chinese rural workers migrated to cities for work. Because of restrictions on migrant access to local health and education systems, many rural children are left behind in home villages to grow up without parental care. This article examines how exposure to cumulative parental migration affects children’s health and education outcomes. Using the Rural-Urban Migration Survey in China (RUMiC) data, we measure the share of children’s lifetime during which parents were away from home. We instrument this measure of parental absence with weather changes in their home villages when parents were aged 16–25, when they were most likely to initiate migration. Results show a sizable adverse effect of exposure to parental migration on the health and education outcomes of children: in particular, boys. We also find that the use of the contemporaneous measure for parental migration in previous studies is likely to underestimate the effect of exposure to parental migration on children’s outcomes.     

Social innovation and ICT in social services: European experiences compared

Innovation in social services and social policies in the European welfare systems is an evolving phenomenon stimulated by socio-demographic, cultural and economic changes. Many social service innovations are linked to disruptive technologies, especially the introduction of information and communication technology (ICT). To discuss the effects of disruptive technologies on health and social services, this article first proposes a framework consistent with the social innovation paradigm. Secondly, based on case-studies, it investigates different models of social and health service innovation driven by technology. The article shows advantages and disadvantages of service innovation driven by technology, and offers some final remarks about future challenges for ICT in health and social services. More evidences of effectiveness and efficiency are necessary to promote public and private investment to implement solutions on a wider scale. However, the impacts of technology-based solutions cannot be measured only in terms of economic aspects but also taking into account whether new technologies really provide the opportunity for citizens to have a better life and advocacy for their rights.     

A Mann–Whitney type effect measure of interaction for factorial designs

We propose a measure for interaction for factorial designs that is formulated in terms of a probability similar to the effect size of the Mann–Whitney test. It is shown how asymptotic confidence intervals can be obtained for the effect size and how a statistical test can be constructed. We further show how the test is related to the test proposed by Bhapkar and Gore [Sankhya A, 36:261–272 (1974)]. The results of a simulation study indicate that the test has good power properties and illustrate when the asymptotic approximations are adequate. The effect size is demonstrated on an example dataset.     

Who does not cut down? Comparing characteristics and drinking motives of drinkers and abstainers during the exam periods

Objective: Drinking alcohol during the exams can affect academic performance and future career options, but is rarely investigated. Drinking motives, sociodemographics and personality characteristics are investigated in nonabstainers and weekly drinkers during the exams. Participants: 7,181 Belgian university students who anonymously responded to an email invitation to an online survey. Methods: Logistic regressions and mixed design analysis of variance on cross-sectional data. Results: One-third of the students continued drinking during the exams, with 40% drinking weekly. Nonabstainers were mainly men, elder, internally motivated when drinking, and housed with parents or independently. Weekly drinkers were similar, except mainly housed in student apartments or independently. Personality characteristics were nonsignificant. All drinking motives were less pronounced during the exams, with smaller differences for internal motives. Conclusions: Mainly linked to internal drinking motives, drinking during the exams in higher education is underestimated. The characteristics and motives of students doing so can be used in future interventions.     

Patriarchal capitalism with Chinese characteristics: gendered discourse of ‘Double Eleven’ shopping festival

In this article we consider the Double Eleven shopping festival as a major discursive site where the hegemony of what we call patriarchal capitalism with Chinese characteristics is articulated. The state, the market, the corporations and the media, both mainstream and social media, all played an important role in building up a national spending spree that is deeply embedded in the current class and gender structure of China. The phenomenon of Double Eleven emerged at a time when state capitalism has been overwriting socialist institutions, while patriarchal ideology being further intensified through consumerism. As a consequence, the intersectionality of class and gender becomes increasingly manifest in the Chinese society. We start with a brief overview of the trajectory of gender politics in China since 1949, with specific focus on how the socialist project of seeking gender equality was gradually replaced by the quest for ‘womanhood’ and ‘femininity’. We then discuss, using both secondary sources and our own analysis of news coverage of Double Eleven, why maintaining a high level of consumer demand is of crucial importance for the Chinese state and what the state’s role has been in configuring the hegemonic gender order. A brief section on ideology and discourse lays out the conceptual framework of our analysis. It is at the intersection of a dissipating socialist ethos, emerging economic stagnation and ascending consumerism that the sexist discourse in relation to Double Eleven proliferates, and this is the analytical focus of our empirical section. We elaborate on the theoretical implications of the empirical analysis before concluding.