关于大学人文教育困境的思考

“大学”是现代社会的产物,是守护人文精神的场所。但同时,市场、科技理性等这些现代社会的标志性成果也在侵蚀着大学的人文精神追求,使其表现出功利主义倾向。现代性的悖论造就了人文教育的艰难处境。能否走出这个悖论,关键在于大学能否保持对现代性的警惕和批判。     

西方人类学发展史的再认识与中国人类学的未来——在"他者"中理解"自我"

中国人类学在重建后经过了20多年的发展,仿佛依然"孤悬"在国际人类学界之外,未能真正"与国际接轨".究其原因,主要还是由于没有抓住西方人类学的核心问题,对其认识不足、把握不透所至."自我"和"他者"问题作为人类学发展的灵魂,激励了一代代西方人类学家从不同角度对其进行探索和反思,将该学科一步步地向前推进.采用"自我"和"他者"的视角重新认识和把握西方人类学发展史,有利于更好的理解该学科的本质,从中吸取经验教训,从而为中国人类学的未来发展注入新的活力.     

COST INCREASES DUE TO DEMAND UNCERTAINTY IN MRP LOT SIZING

This paper analyzes the cost increases due to demand uncertainty in single-level MRP lot sizing on a rolling horizon. It is shown that forecast errors have a tremendous effect on the cost effectiveness of lot-sizing techniques even when these forecast errors are small. Moreover, the cost differences between different techniques become rather insignificant in the presence of forecast errors. Since most industrial firms face demand uncertainty to some extent, our findings may have important managerial implications. Various simulation experiments give insight into both the nature and the magnitude of the cost increases for different heuristics. Analytical results are developed for the constant-demand case with random noise and forecasting by exponential smoothing. It is also shown how optimal buffers can be obtained by use of a simple model. Although the analysis in this paper is restricted to simplified cases, the results merit further consideration and study. This paper is one of the first to inject forecast errors into MRP lot-sizing research. As such it attempts to deal with one of the major objections against the practical relevance of previous research in this area.     

Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

Lifetime Data Analysis - CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their...     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

REAL EXCHANGE RATE,MONETARY POLICY,AND THE U.S. ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM A FAVAR MODEL

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation to the U.S. economy in a factor‐augmented vector autoregression model using monthly data of 148 variables for the post–Bretton Woods period of 1973–2017. Exchange rate shock is identified to reflect exogenous disturbances to the foreign exchange market, and movements in exchange rate that are not accounted for by changes in the U.S. monetary policy. We find that depreciation is expansionary and inflationary to the broad U.S. economy, the current account improves over time conforming to the J‐curve theory, and monetary policy is leaning against the wind. (JEL E3, E5, F31, F32, F41)     

Communication and representation of risk in health crises: the influence of framing and group identity / Comunicación en crisis sanitarias y representación del riesgo. La influencia del framing y la identidad grupal

Based on the Social Representations Theory (SRT) applied to the social construction of risk and the role played by group identities, this study examines the construction of risk created by the mass media in health epidemics. An experimental design with split-ballot questionnaire and 319 participants was used in which message framing (human interest vs. attribution of responsibility) and proximity (high vs. low) were manipulated for a high invulnerability identity (youth) vs. a low invulnerability identity (elderly) population. Results showed that the human interest framing increased the perception of risk, especially when the proximity of the epidemic was high; this effect was explained by people’s emotional response. Furthermore, youth projected the risk towards ‘the other’ in order to protect their invulnerability identity. Finally, we stress the importance of the SRT on a theoretical and applied level for risk communication in health crises.     

中国经济转型期城镇少数民族教育收益率的实证研究

文章分别使用了OLS方法和分位回归技术,考察了1995—2007年间中国城镇少数民族教育收益率的总体水平及其长期变化趋势,并将之与汉族进行了比较,发现在经济转型期,中国城镇居民教育收益率总体上呈逐年上升趋势,少数民族与汉族之间的教育收益率没有显著差异。政策的力量与市场的力量有机结合、相互叠加,是转型时期中国城镇少数民族的地位并没有发生逆转的重要原因。与汉族相同,少数民族的教育收益率随着收入分位点提高而逐渐减小,即收入水平越高,教育收益率越低。     

解放战争爆发的政治学分析

1946年解放战争的爆发是由于国民党政府当时的刻板、僵硬的政治体制,是国民党政府未能建立一个能够适应不断变化的政治参政模式体制的必然结果。由于国民党政府无法为当时新的社会力量、新的上层分子提供参与政治的渠道和参与政治体系的机会,而当时被排斥于政治之外的社会力量、上层分子又具有参与政治的强烈愿望,这种政治体制和社会力量两种因素一但碰到一起,革命就会爆发。     

近现代世界通用语的变迁--以法语、英语为例

语言在国际事务中的地位通常与一个民族、一个国家的政治、经济、文化的兴衰有着密切的联系。如果某国家政治、经济、文化实力强大,在国际事务中发挥主导作用,其语言在国际交往中也处于主导地位。因此从世界通用语的更替,可以窥视国际舞台大国的兴衰。18世纪法国在欧洲大陆的称霸,使法语成为重要的近代世界通用语。法语成为欧洲各国上层社会的语言,也是国际的外交语言。随着英国的壮大,英语又成为世界通用语。但英语取代法语,成为世界通用语却经历了漫长的过程。其中美国的发展促进了英语的传播并且维护了英语的国际地位,还促使英语成为全球通用语。