Arguments for the cognitive social sciences

This article analyses the arguments for the integration between the cognitive and social sciences. We understand interdisciplinary integration as an umbrella term that includes different ways of bringing scientific disciplines together. Our focus is on four arguments based on different ideas about how the cognitive sciences should be integrated with the social sciences: explanatory grounding, theoretical unification, constraint and complementarity. These arguments not only provide different reasons why the cognitive social sciences—i.e. disciplines and research programs that aim to integrate the social sciences with the cognitive sciences—are needed but also subscribe to different visions as to how these sciences might look like. We discuss each argument in three stages: First, we provide a concrete example of the argument. Second, we reconstruct the argument by specifying its premises, inferential structure and conclusion. Third, we evaluate the argument by analyzing its presuppositions, the plausibility of its premises, the soundness of its inferences and potential conceptual ambiguities. In the final discussion, we compare these arguments and identify the most compelling reasons why the cognitive social sciences are needed.     

A comparative study of social network models: Network evolution models and nodal attribute models

This paper reviews, classifies and compares recent models for social networks that have mainly been published within the physics-oriented complex networks literature. The models fall into two categories: those in which the addition of new links is dependent on the (typically local) network structure (network evolution models, NEMs), and those in which links are generated based only on nodal attributes (nodal attribute models, NAMs). An exponential random graph model (ERGM) with structural dependencies is included for comparison. We fit models from each of these categories to two empirical acquaintance networks with respect to basic network properties. We compare higher order structures in the resulting networks with those in the data, with the aim of determining which models produce the most realistic network structure with respect to degree distributions, assortativity, clustering spectra, geodesic path distributions, and community structure (subgroups with dense internal connections). We find that the nodal attribute models successfully produce assortative networks and very clear community structure. However, they generate unrealistic clustering spectra and peaked degree distributions that do not match empirical data on large social networks. On the other hand, many of the network evolution models produce degree distributions and clustering spectra that agree more closely with data. They also generate assortative networks and community structure, although often not to the same extent as in the data. The ERGM model, which turned out to be near-degenerate in the parameter region best fitting our data, produces the weakest community structure.     

New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises,Falls, and Reversals

With period fertility having risen in many low‐fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many “low‐fertility” countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long‐term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English‐speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low‐fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession.     

The Structure and Resources of NGOs in Estonia

The paper examines the present state of voluntary associations in Estonia—their resources and fields of activity. First, the paper discusses two possible functions of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the postsocialist social change: the opening up of participation channels complementary to those of representative democracy and the support to the state in fulfilling social welfare functions. A view stressing the latter function of the voluntary sector has hitherto dominated Estonian domestic political discussion. The actual capacity of Estonian NGOs is assessed on the basis of previous research and the results of a mail survey (779 responding organizations). The resources of the respondents are smaller than expected. Resources differ greatly between urban and rural associations, and between NGOs representing different fields of activity. The paper concludes with a discussion of the empirical findings and of the need for further research.     

‘This is just so unfair!’: A qualitative analysis of loss-induced emotions and tilting in on-line poker

Poker is a game of skill and chance, where players often experience significant monetary losses. Detrimental out-of-control poker decision-making due to negative emotions is known as tilting. A qualitative assessment of losing and tilting was conducted by analysing stories about significant monetary losses, written by Finnish on-line poker players (N = 60). Thematic and narrative analyses uncovered five themes and a narrative structure underlying the aetiology and phenomenology of tilting. Tilting, in the narratives, was often instigated by dissociative feelings (‘unreality’, disbelief) following a significant monetary loss. Thereafter, moral indignation was experienced, followed by chasing behaviour, in an attempt to restore a ‘fair balance’ between wins and losses. In the aftermath of tilting, self-focused feelings of disappointment, depression and/or anxiety, and sleeping problems were experienced. It was also observed that experienced players, as compared to inexperienced ones, exhibited in their narratives a more mature disposition towards encountering ‘bad luck’, and losing in general. The results are relevant in better understanding psychological processes related to losing in the multifaceted game of poker, thus contributing also to existing knowledge on detrimental gambling behaviour.     

The Length of Working Life in Spain: Levels,Recent Trends,and the Impact of the Financial Crisis

While there has been considerable debate about extending the length of working life, relatively little is known about this issue. We use data from the Spanish Continuous Working Life Sample for 2004–2013 to calculate period working life tables, which in turn allows us to assess the impact of the financial crisis on working life expectancy in Spain. Before the recession hit, working life expectancy in Spain was around 38 years for males and 33 years for females. The recession had a tremendous impact on the Spanish labor market, but the effects differed considerably by gender and occupational category. Men working in skilled non-manual jobs were less affected, while men working in unskilled manual jobs lost close to 14 years of working life expectancy. Women were less affected than men. With working life expectancy decreasing, the average proportion of lifetime spent in unemployment and outside the labor market increased markedly, whereas the average number of years spent in retirement changed only a little. When we decompose losses in working life expectancy by age group, we find that economic fluctuations affect both older and younger workers. This result suggests that policies that focus on retirement ages only are incomplete. We also compare our findings to the results obtained by Sullivans method, which is based on prevalence rates rather than the incidence-based working life table approach. We find that the use of Sullivans approach does not accurately reflect the levels of and the trends in working life expectancy.     

The relative effects of shocks in early- and later-life conditions on mortality

The relative importance of cohorts' early-life conditions, compared to later period conditions, on adult and old-age mortality is not known. This article studies how cohort-level mortality depends on shocks in cohorts' early- and later-life (period) conditions. I use cohorts' own mortality as a proxy for the early-life conditions, and define shocks as deviations from trend. Using historical data for five European Countries i find that shocks in early-life conditions are only weakly associated with cohorts' later mortality. This may be because individual-level health is robust to early-life conditions, or because at the cohort level scarring, selection, and immunity cancel each other. Shocks in period conditions, measured as deviations from trend in period child mortality, are strongly and positively correlated with mortality at all older ages. The results suggest that at the cohort level changing period conditions drive mortality variation and change.     

Partisanship,continuity, and change: Politics in Finnish unemployment benefit reforms 1985–2016

The apparent decline of partisan effects on social policies since the 1980s has encouraged the development of theories that challenge the traditional partisan politics theory. Although the new politics approach pointed to institutional path-dependence and to the unpopularity of radical retrenchment, recent research has highlighted shifts in electoral landscapes, differences in party systems and institutional contexts, and changing party-voter linkages. This in-depth case study contributes to debates on partisan effects by focusing on Finland, whose dualistic unemployment benefit system and institutional and political conditions provide an interesting case to analyse changing partisan effects. The aim is to explain, through qualitative policy analysis, why government partisanship has not had a significant effect on unemployment benefit levels since 1985. The explanations are different for earnings-related and flat-rate benefits. For the former, retrenchment efforts have seen a distinct partisan divide, but trade unions have thwarted most cutbacks; thus, although partisanship has not mattered much for policy outcomes, power resources have remained important as inhibitor of cuts. For the latter, parties that in the late 1980s still had differing priorities have since converged on policies emphasizing activation and work incentives. Universal flat-rate benefits have lacked political support and have been left to stagnate. The study suggests that one single theory is not sufficient to explain developments even in one single welfare policy—there are too many aspects to cover—not to speak of the entire welfare state consisting of an array of different schemes.     

The local fractional bootstrap

We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high‐frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an estimator based on a ratio of realized power variations. Our new resampling method, the local fractional bootstrap, relies on simulating an auxiliary fractional Brownian motion that mimics the fine properties of high‐frequency differences of the Brownian semistationary process under the null hypothesis. We prove the first‐order validity of the bootstrap method, and in simulations, we observe that the bootstrap‐based hypothesis test provides considerable finite‐sample improvements over an existing test that is based on a central limit theorem. This is important when studying the roughness properties of time series data. We illustrate this by applying the bootstrap method to two empirical data sets: We assess the roughness of a time series of high‐frequency asset prices and we test the validity of Kolmogorov's scaling law in atmospheric turbulence data.     

The Emergence and Stability of the Attentional Bias to Fearful Faces in Infancy

Several studies have shown that at 7 months of age, infants display an attentional bias toward fearful facial expressions. In this study, we analyzed visual attention and heart rate data from a cross‐sectional study with 5‐, 7‐, 9‐, and 11‐month‐old infants (Experiment 1) and visual attention from a longitudinal study with 5‐ and 7‐month‐old infants (Experiment 2) to examine the emergence and stability of the attentional bias to fearful facial expressions. In both experiments, the attentional bias to fearful faces appeared to emerge between 5 and 7 months of age: 5‐month‐olds did not show a difference in disengaging attention from fearful and nonfearful faces, whereas 7‐ and 9‐month‐old infants had a lower probability of disengaging attention from fearful than nonfearful faces. Across the age groups, heart rate (HR) data (Experiment 1) showed a more pronounced and longer‐lasting HR deceleration to fearful than nonfearful expressions. The results are discussed in relation to the development of the perception and experience of fear and the interaction between emotional and attentional processes.