重庆市渝中区都市文化中心的定位及其建设

文化建设是都市建设的重要内容 ,渝中区是重庆的都市中心 ,在重庆市和渝中区的社会经济发展规划中 ,应当把文化建设放在重要的战略地位。本文重点讨论文化建设在都市建设中的意义和基本要求 ,并提出一些发展都市文化的建议     

Model Averaging for Prediction With Fragmentary Data

ABSTRACT

One main challenge for statistical prediction with data from multiple sources is that not all the associated covariate data are available for many sampled subjects. Consequently, we need new statistical methodology to handle this type of “fragmentary data” that has become more and more popular in recent years. In this article, we propose a novel method based on the frequentist model averaging that fits some candidate models using all available covariate data. The weights in model averaging are selected by delete-one cross-validation based on the data from complete cases. The optimality of the selected weights is rigorously proved under some conditions. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is confirmed by simulation studies. An example for personal income prediction based on real data from a leading e-community of wealth management in China is also presented for illustration.     

On a statistic useful in dimensionality reduction in multivariable linear stochastic system

In this paper we study the sampling properties of a test statistic which has important applications in the area of linear stochastic control systems with multi-inputs and multi-outputs. The statistic is the ratio of a partial sum of the eigenvalues of a sample covariance matrix and its trace. It turns out that using a method due to Sugiura we may derive a useful approximation for its distribution up to and including terms of order l/n, where n denotes the appropriate size. Numerical illustrations using real data are given.     

Establishing decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment models

ABSTRACT

Traditional credit risk assessment models do not consider the time factor; they only think of whether a customer will default, but not the when to default. The result cannot provide a manager to make the profit-maximum decision. Actually, even if a customer defaults, the financial institution still can gain profit in some conditions. Nowadays, most research applied the Cox proportional hazards model into their credit scoring models, predicting the time when a customer is most likely to default, to solve the credit risk assessment problem. However, in order to fully utilize the fully dynamic capability of the Cox proportional hazards model, time-varying macroeconomic variables are required which involve more advanced data collection. Since short-term default cases are the ones that bring a great loss for a financial institution, instead of predicting when a loan will default, a loan manager is more interested in identifying those applications which may default within a short period of time when approving loan applications. This paper proposes a decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment model to assess the credit risk. The goal is to use the decision tree to filter the short-term default to produce a highly accurate model that could distinguish default lending. This paper integrates bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) with a synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) into the credit risk model to improve the decision tree stability and its performance on unbalanced data. Finally, a real case of small and medium enterprise loan data that has been drawn from a local financial institution located in Taiwan is presented to further illustrate the proposed approach. After comparing the result that was obtained from the proposed approach with the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, it was found that the classifying recall rate and precision rate of the proposed model was obviously superior to the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models.     

Regression Analysis of Left-truncated and Case I Interval-censored Data with the Additive Hazards Model

In recent years the analysis of interval-censored failure time data has attracted a great deal of attention and such data arise in many fields including demographical studies, economic and financial studies, epidemiological studies, social sciences, and tumorigenicity experiments. This is especially the case in medical studies such as clinical trials. In this article, we discuss regression analysis of one type of such data, Case I interval-censored data, in the presence of left-truncation. For the problem, the additive hazards model is employed and the maximum likelihood method is applied for estimations of unknown parameters. In particular, we adopt the sieve estimation approach that approximates the baseline cumulative hazard function by linear functions. The resulting estimates of regression parameters are shown to be consistent and efficient and have an asymptotic normal distribution. An illustrative example is provided.     

中国流动人口市民化的场域适应与行为变迁

农村人口大规模地向城镇社会流动有力地推动了中国社会结构的转型。在此进程中,政府的容量平衡逻辑形成融城准入门槛,而流动人口以能动精神形塑渐次融城的市民化图景。但这种解释逻辑忽视了流动人口的内部差异以及社会流动与社会结构之间的互动关系。聚焦流动人口的主体视角,发现其内部的个体差异使其匹配不同的市民化阶段并表现出相应的市民化行为。因而,中国流动人口呈现渐阶融入的市民化图景。以信任为关键变量观察社会的转型特征,可以发现,伴随流动人口市民化的进阶,其普遍主义信任特征愈发显著;流动人口不仅成为“标准的城里人”,也进阶性地成为“典型的现代人”;流动人口市民化不仅超越了差序格局的信任半径局限,而且构成中国社会现代化的潜在动能。     

An Analysis on What Role Population Factors Play for Water Resource Pressure in Beijing

How much water resource pressure is jointly determined by demand and water supply conditions? How much role and influence does the demographic factor play? What is the relationship between the demographic factor and the other driving factors? An in-depth study has a very important significance because the above issues directly related to the future policy formulation with population, economic and resources. Based upon analysis of water resource pressure changing trend in Beijing,the driving factors of the usage of water resources from 2001 to 2010 were analyzed using the LMDI decomposition method. Furthermore, the status and role of demographic factors (including population size,household size and so on) and other various driving factors were studied. The results are shown below: The water resource pressure is not only high, but also continually rising year by year; the greatest growth driving factor of the water usage is GDP per capita growth; the demographic factor (including population size,the amount of family and household size and so on) has some influences on the changes of water usage, but it is not the main factor. Improvement for the utilization of water resources in the productive sector and proper guidance for a rational consumption view are very important to alleviate the water pressure and improve the population carrying capacity.     

职业生涯研究

一职业构成状况是社会学研究中重要的变量之一。从宏观的角度看,一个社会的职业构成表明了该社会的分工水平;从微观角度看,社会行动者从事的某种职业说明着个人的社会地位。这两方面多在传统社会学研究中有所体现,其研究更多地具有结构性特征。职业生涯概念的引入力图对此有所突破,一方面它试图把宏观层面和微观层面的职业研究相结合,既关注社会行动者在劳动分工中占有的一系列职业地位,也关注社会行动者职业变动背后的社会因素;另一方面,它也试图把过程因素与结构因素相结合,个人的职业发展或职业连续性的变动在职业生涯的概念下成为社会的…     

道德原则与道德重构

社会主义市场经济条件下的道德原则应包括三方面内容 :尊重和发展个性的原则 ,公利的原则和和谐的原则。在此基础上 ,建构出具有现代意义的高度发达高度文明的新的经济和价值观念模式 ,正是当代哲学伦理学存在之意义所在     

配体场势与d轨道分裂的相对能量

以ｄ１组态的简单晶体场理论为基础,根据点群的对称性及配体场势的可加和性原则,讨论了各配体场中ｄ轨道分裂的相对能量的计算方法