日本无障碍环境建设理念及推进机制分析

作为世界上人口老龄化最严重的国家,日本在满足老弱病残等弱势群体出行的无障碍环境建设方面走在了世界前列。日本无障碍城市环境体系由设施、系统规划、导向和服务4个要素构成:完备、合理的无障碍设施建设构成这一体系的基础,注重与环境融合的系统性规划将设施有效联通,以全方位的通用设计理念指导信息导向系统设计,并用服务进一步为环境建设查遗补漏。日本无障碍环境建设背后的推进机制以完善的国家无障碍设计法规体系为基石,以优先推动重点发展区域的无障碍建设为实施手段,同时提升国民无障碍环境建设意识、逐步营造良好的社会环境氛围。有效的机制建设是促进日本无障碍城市环境建设的重要推动力量。     

A generalized binomial distribution determined by a two-state Markov chain and a distribution by the Bayesian approach

For dependent Bernoulli random variables, the distribution of a sum of the random variables is obtained as a generalized binomial distribution determined by a two-state Markov chain. Asymptotic distributions of the sum are derived from the central limit theorem and the Edgeworth expansion. A numerical comparison of the exact and asymptotic distributions of the sum is also given. Further a distribution of the sum by the Bayesian approach is derived and its asymptotic distributions are provided. Numerical results are given.     

Truthful Equilibria in Dynamic Bayesian Games

This paper characterizes an equilibrium payoff subset for dynamic Bayesian games as discounting vanishes. Monitoring is imperfect, transitions may depend on actions, types may be correlated, and values may be interdependent. The focus is on equilibria in which players report truthfully. The characterization generalizes that for repeated games, reducing the analysis to static Bayesian games with transfers. With independent private values, the restriction to truthful equilibria is without loss, except for the punishment level: if players withhold their information during punishment‐like phases, a folk theorem obtains.     

Differences Between Men and Women in Social Relations, Resource Deficits, and Depressive Symptomatology During Later Life in Four Nations

This article examines gender differences in social relations and resource deficits in France ( N = 553), Germany ( N = 516), Japan ( N = 491), and the United States ( N = 514). These data, from regionally representative samples, indicate few gender differences in quantity or quality of social relations, but that women are more likely than men to experience widowhood, illness, and financial strain. In all countries, more deficits and more negative social interactions are associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms. Interestingly, among women in France and Japan but not among men in any country, quality of social relations offsets the negative consequences of resource deficits. Findings suggest that quality of social relations may have important implications for helping people, particularly women, cope with resource deficits common in late life.     

Tragedy on grade crossing: driver failure or systemic fragility?

In 2010, an accident occurred in Americana-SP, Brazil, involving two trains and one bus on a Grade Crossing, when 10 people died and 17 were injured including workers. This paper aims to analyze the accident using the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Work Accidents (MAPA). The method provides observation of work, interviews and analysis of documents to understand precedents of the event in the following stages: to understand the usual work from the involved people, the changes occurred in the system, the operation of barriers, managerial and organizational aspects. By the end, measures are suggested to avoid new occurrences. The accident took place at night in a site with insufficient lighting. The working conditions of bus drivers, train operators and watchmen are inadequate. There were only symbolic barriers (visual and acoustic signals) triggered manually by watchman upon train operator radio communication. The fragility of the barrier system associated to poor lighting and short time to trigger the signaling seem to play a critical role in the event. Contrary to the official report which resulted in guilt of the bus driver, the conclusion of the paper emphasizes the fragility of the safety system and the need of level crossing reproject.     

Bayesian optimization design for dose-finding based on toxicity and efficacy outcomes in phase I/II clinical trials

In phase I trials, the main goal is to identify a maximum tolerated dose under an assumption of monotonicity in dose–response relationships. On the other hand, such monotonicity is no longer applied to biologic agents because a different mode of action from that of cytotoxic agents potentially draws unimodal or flat dose–efficacy curves. Therefore, biologic agents require an optimal dose that provides a sufficient efficacy rate under an acceptable toxicity rate instead of a maximum tolerated dose. Many trials incorporate both toxicity and efficacy data, and drugs with a variety of modes of actions are increasingly being developed; thus, optimal dose estimation designs have been receiving increased attention. Although numerous authors have introduced parametric model-based designs, it is not always appropriate to apply strong assumptions in dose–response relationships. We propose a new design based on a Bayesian optimization framework for identifying optimal doses for biologic agents in phase I/II trials. Our proposed design models dose–response relationships via nonparametric models utilizing a Gaussian process prior, and the uncertainty of estimates is considered in the dose selection process. We compared the operating characteristics of our proposed design against those of three other designs through simulation studies. These include an expansion of Bayesian optimal interval design, the parametric model-based EffTox design, and the isotonic design. In simulations, our proposed design performed well and provided results that were more stable than those from the other designs, in terms of the accuracy of optimal dose estimations and the percentage of correct recommendations.     

An Application of Machine Learning for Predicting Rearrests: Significant Predictors for Juveniles

This study examined the influence of the individual and social background in predicting the rearrest of 1124 juveniles who were first brought into the juvenile detention center in a midsized county in California. Independent variables include demographic characteristics, first offense type, gang affiliation, usage of drug, and family characteristics. Using cross-validation to choose an appropriate machine learning model for predicting rearrest, this study identified that the most important predictors of subsequent arrest are age at first arrest, drug usage, gang affiliation, and family with government assistance. Despite the fact that blacks are overrepresented in the juvenile detention population, race was not a significant predictor for rearrest. Future research would continue to explore the utilization of machine learning adding nontraditional variables to enhance the prediction of recidivism.     

Heterogeneity of Loss Aversion in Pathological Gambling

Pathological gambling (PG) is characterized by continual repeated gambling behavior despite negative consequences. PG is considered to be a disorder of altered decision-making under risk, and behavioral economics tools were utilized by studies on decision-making under risk. At the same time, PG was suggested to be a heterogeneous disorder in terms of personality traits as well as risk attitude. We aimed to examine the heterogeneity of PG in terms of loss aversion, which means that a loss is subjectively felt to be larger than the same amount of gain. Thirty-one male PG subjects and 26 male healthy control (HC) subjects underwent a behavioral economics task for estimation of loss aversion and personality traits assessment. Although loss aversion in PG subjects was not significantly different from that in HC subjects, distributions of loss aversion differed between PG and HC subjects. HC subjects were uniformly classified into three levels (low, middle, high) of loss aversion, whereas PG subjects were mostly classified into the two extremes, and few PG subjects were classified into the middle range. PG subjects with low and high loss aversion showed a significant difference in anxiety, excitement-seeking and craving intensity. Our study suggested that PG was a heterogeneous disorder in terms of loss aversion. This result might be useful for understanding cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms and the establishment of treatment strategies for PG.     

The higher order large-deviation approximation for the distribution of the sum of independent discreterandom variables

For a sum of not identic ally but independently distributed discrete random variables, its higher order large-deviation approximation in given. They are compared with the normal and Edge-worth type approximations in various cases. Consequently, the large-deviation approximations give sufficiently accurate results.     

Spatial variation in female fertility related to interactions with flower consumers and pathogens in a forest metapopulation ofPrimula sieboldii

Antagonistic biological interactions with flower consumers and pathogens may influence reproductive success of flowering plants, affecting population dynamics and natural selection for floral traits. However, ecological and evolutionary consequences of the interactions may depend on both spatial and temporal patterns of the interactions. In a forest metapopulation ofPrimula sieboldii E. Morren, an endangered clonal plant species, we measured between-subpopulation patterns of seed sets and interactions with an influential flower consumer, a rove beetle,Eusphalerum bosatsu Watanabe, and a specific smut fungal pathogen,Urocystis tranzschelina (Lavrov) Zundel (Ustilaginales), for three years. Mean female fertility (seed set per flower) for individual subpopulations fluctuated moderately among years but was highly variable within each year among the five subpopulations studied. In two subpopulations, the impact ofEusphalerum beetle, was sufficiently large to result in almost complete failure in seed production over eight years including the three study and five previous preliminary observation years. In the two other subpopulations, seed set failure was caused by infection by the smut fungus. Infected capsules which constitute 10–30% of the capsules produced in the subpopulations were filled with ustilospores instead of seeds. In the subpopulation that escaped flower damage byEusphalerum beetles and smut fungal infection, seed sets of both pin and thrum flowers were much higher than in the other subpopulations. The spatial restriction of individual antagonistic agents to a part of subpopulations suggest that dispersal of the agents, as well as the mode of spatial subdivision of the plant population would be important for determining the overall effects of antagonistic interactions on plant performances at the metapopulation level.