资本形成对辽宁省经济增长的贡献

为了说明资本形成对辽宁省经济增长贡献的关系,采用理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,利用Eviews计量分析软件,对GDP的增幅、存贷款利率、居民储蓄率、投资流向、财政收入与支出等进行分析,结果表明:辽宁省经济增长与资本形成之间呈现正相关关系,但效果不明显。     

To move or not to move to find a new job: spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects

The aim of this paper is to show the flexibility and capacity of penalized spline smoothing as estimation routine for modelling duration time data. We analyse the unemployment behaviour in Germany between 2000 and 2004 using a massive database from the German Federal Employment Agency. To investigate dynamic covariate effects and differences between competing job markets depending on the distance between former and recent working place, a functional duration time model with competing risks is used. It is build upon a competing hazard function where some of the smooth covariate effects are allowed to vary with unemployment duration. The focus of our analysis is on contrasting the spatial, economic and individual covariate effects of the competing job markets and on analysing their general influence on the unemployed's re-employment probabilities. As a result of our analyses, we reveal differences concerning gender, age and education. We also discover an effect between the newly formed and the old West German states. Moreover, the spatial pattern between the considered job markets differs.     

Relationships across multiple settings: an overview

It is not the method of interaction but the quality of the interaction between patient and therapist, student and teacher, mentee and mentor, or youth and youth worker that is the most critical determinant of success in a myriad of fields.     

广西大学生宗教观调查分析

对广西268名大学生的问卷调查表明:信教大学生的总体比例不高,多数学生对宗教的态度较为客观,但也相当比例学生无法理解宗教所指的准确内涵,无法分清宗教、迷信、民俗之间的差别,致使民俗、迷信现象依旧有较大影响,不少学生对封建迷信活动持肯定或半信半疑态度。另外,气功、飞碟、外星人之类新时代热门现象也有一定市场,国外宗教的渗透尤其值得引起警惕注意。     

Solar Festivals and Climate Bills: Comparing NGO Climate Change Campaigns in the UK and Australia

This paper compares climate change campaigns conducted by environmental nongovernment organizations (NGOs) in the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia. The NGOs represent a diversity of political access, financial resources, and international connections. Three campaign activities common to both countries undertaken between 2004 and 2006 are analyzed for their effectiveness via interviews and document review. This examination is embedded within an analysis of the political, economic, policy, and social contexts of each country. It is shown that in the UK climate change has been used as a pivotal leadership issue, that the fossil fuel industry’s influence is not predominant, and that NGOs enjoy political legitimacy. Whereas, in Australia climate change has only recently emerged as a political priority, the fossil fuel industry has had significant political and financial influence, and NGO advocacy has been marginalized. It is argued that NGOs are embedded in the political and policy contexts of their country, and the greatest campaign traction and NGO influence can only be achieved when these contexts provide favorable conditions.

“The chug is coming through!” “There's two chuggas!”: A longitudinal study of the social function of imitation in children's play with siblings and friends

Imitation is argued to have an important affiliative function in social relationships. However, children's tendency to imitate different play partners during naturalistic play and associations with social understanding have been overlooked. We investigated the frequency and context of imitation in a longitudinal study of 65 focal children (T1: M age = 56.4 months, SD = 5.71) during play with their older or younger sibling and a friend in two separate play sessions. Children were observed again approximately 3 years later (T2: n = 46, M age = 94.6 months; SD = 6.6). We coded focal children's verbal and nonverbal imitation of their play partner, their partner's response to being imitated, the context in which imitation occurred (e.g., pretense), and the focal child's social understanding (i.e., mental state references). Verbal imitation occurred more often than nonverbal imitation and was used most often during the contexts of play negotiations and pretense. Although focal children's imitation of both their siblings and friends increased significantly over time, children imitated friends more than siblings at T1. All play partners responded positively (i.e., smiling, laughing) most often to being imitated. Associations between focal child imitation and mental state talk with friends at T2 approached significance. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of the nature of imitation during children's play interactions and support assertions that imitation is a process whereby children build affiliation, mutuality, and shared meanings in their relationships.     

Modeling of interventions for reducing external Enterobacteriaceae contamination of broiler carcasses during processing

This article presents a mathematical model for the Enterobacteriaceae count on the surface of broiler chicken during slaughter and how it may be affected by different processing technologies. The model is based on a model originally developed for Campylobacter and has been adapted for Enterobacteriaceae using a Bayesian updating approach and hitherto unpublished data gathered from German abattoirs. The slaughter process in the model consists of five stages: input, scalding, defeathering, evisceration, washing, and chilling. The impact of various processing technologies along the broiler processing line on the Enterobacteriaceae count on the carcasses’ surface has been determined from literature data. The model is implemented in the software R and equipped with a graphical user interface which allows interactively to choose among different processing technologies for each stage along the processing line. Based on the choice of processing technologies the model estimates the Enterobacteriaceae count on the surface of each broiler chicken at each stage of processing. This result is then compared to a so-called baseline model which simulates a processing line with a fixed set of processing technologies. The model calculations showed how even very effective removal of bacteria on the exterior of the carcass in a previous step will be undone by the cross-contamination with leaked feces, if feces contain high concentrations of bacteria.