Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates

Journal of Population Research - When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover,...     

我国学前教育地方立法研究

学前教育地方立法是我国学前教育立法体系的有机组成部分，截至2020 年1 月，我国现行有效的学前教育地方性法规 规章共61 部，呈现出立法时间跨度大，立法主体覆盖面广，立法模式体例多样等特征。地方立法一定程度上规范着地方学前 教育的有序开展，但也存在部分省市立法机关对当地学前教育立法关注度不高、部分立法难以满足当前学前教育发展需求、表 达不规范、可操作性欠佳、缺乏地方特色以及冲突与越位等问题。对此，应从科学确定学前教育地方立法内容、建立地方性法 律适时更新制度、健全学前教育地方立法调研制度、加强地方立法专业化制度建设等方面予以优化。     

A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

A qualitative study on participants’ perceptions of child development accounts in Korea

ABSTRACT

In 2007, Korea implemented Child Development Accounts (CDAs) for institutionalised children in child welfare systems. Since then, the target group and a matching cap of CDAs in Korea have evolved. The target group expanded to include poor children receiving welfare, whereas the matching cap increased from KRW 30,000 (US$26.53) to KRW 40,000 (US$35.38), which is matched at a 1:1 rate. Despite the expansion, there is little empirical evidence examining the extent to which CDAs have influenced the life of participants. Using a content analysis method with a sample (N = 22), this study examines how CDAs have changed children’s mindsets, saving habits, education, future planning and sponsorship. The findings suggest that CDAs have multiple positive influences on children. This study concludes with policy implications for the inclusive and progressive development of CDAs in Korea.     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

金庸小说里的辽东元素（下）——从阿骨打到胡一刀,都有那股劲

金庸的武侠世界中,常有帝王将相出场.他的小说多以王朝兴替乾坤倒转之际为背景,也是金大侠的好发政论使然.他曾自我剖白称,《笑傲江湖》和《鹿鼎记》写的就是政治.《鸳鸯刀》看似短篇戏谑之作,其实也有金氏的政治图解掩映其中.     

Assessing Participation and Effectiveness of the Peer-Led Approach in Youth Sexual Health Education: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis in More Developed Countries

Sexual health education for young people is crucial not only for development of norms but also for protection against vulnerabilities during this stage in life. Although several systematic reviews have examined the effectiveness of peer-led sex education, none have focused on the extent of peer participation. The purpose of this review was to evaluate peer-led sexual health education interventions in more developed countries (MDCs). Electronic and manual searches across five social science, education, and medical databases were conducted. Fifteen articles were selected in total. Most (10 of 15) studies gave low or no responsibility to peers. The majority of articles found improvements in sexual health knowledge (13 of 14) and attitudes (11 of 15) at postintervention stages. Two studies showed improved self-efficacy, and three showed behavioral changes. A preliminary synthesis of effectiveness and level of participation was done. Meta-analysis revealed a large effect on knowledge change (Hedges’ g = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43 to 1.25) and a medium effect on attitude change (Hedges’ g = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.19 to 0.80). Peer-led interventions could be a powerful tool. This review shows that this approach is effective in changing knowledge and attitudes but not behaviors. Further research and action are needed to understand optimal implementation.     

解析鲍尔·恩格尔在《爱荷华圣诞节》中的创作手法

鲍尔·恩格尔是美国当代著名作家,在散文《爱荷华圣诞节》中,作者从孩子的视野出发,讲述儿时一次普通的圣诞节经历。作者灵活运用排比修辞手法,使文章结构紧凑,衔接自然。作者还多次从视觉、听觉和嗅觉角度,形象地刻画了农家圣诞节宴会,细微之处见真情。同时,作者以孩子的口吻讲述圣诞节的所见所闻,通俗易懂,简洁明了。而宗教故事的引用,则使文章富有浓厚的宗教传奇色彩。这些创作技巧的使用,体现了作家独特的创作手法。     

诗歌押韵与起承转合

起承转合,关于诗文的意蕴结构或曰章法的这一术语,也可以用来概括诗歌的押韵规律.在诗歌的各种韵式中,起承转合这一韵式有着独特的优势,至今葆有顽强的生命力.     

东南亚华裔学生中文姓名用字研究

姓名是语言学中一个值得关注的课题,它是一种社会现象,也是一种语言现象,有丰富的内涵。文章通过语料样本对东南亚华裔学生的中文姓名用字进行统计研究,分析用字特点,对华裔学生中文取名方法和对待相关问题应有态度进行探讨。