Causal inference for recurrent events data with all-or-none compliance

ABSTRACT

In this article, causal inference in randomized studies with recurrent events data and all-or-none compliance is considered. We use the counting process to analyze the recurrent events data and propose a causal proportional intensity model. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted to estimate the parameters of the proposed causal model. To overcome the computational difficulties created by the mixture structure of the problem, we develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. We further estimate the complier average causal effect (CACE), which is defined as the difference of the average numbers of recurrence between treatment and control groups within the complier class. The corresponding inferential procedures are established. Some simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.     

A Note on Tests for Zero-Inflation in Correlated Count Data

Zero-inflated Poisson mixed regression models are popular approaches to analyze clustered count data with excess zeros. Prior to application of these models, it is essential to examine the necessity of the adjustment for zero outcomes. The existing literature, however, has focused only on score tests for testing the suitability of zero-inflated models for correlated count data. In view of the observed bias and non-optimal size of score tests, it deserves further investigation of other alternative ways for the test. This article aims to explore the use of the null Wald and likelihood ratio tests for zero-inflation in correlated count data. Our simulation study shows that both the null Wald and likelihood ratio tests outperform the score test of Xiang et al. (2006 Xiang , L. , Lee , A. H. , Yau , K. K. W. , McLachlan , G. J. ( 2006 ). A score test for zero-inflation in correlated count data . Statistics in Medicine 25 : 1660 – 1671 . [Google Scholar]) in terms of statistical power, regardless of the computational convenience of the score test. A bootstrap null Wald statistic is also proposed, which results in improved performance in terms of the size and power of the test.     

要素流动视角下县域高铁开通对中国企业出口产品质量的影响研究

利用县域高速铁路数据及微观企业产品数据,基于要素流动视角研究了县域高铁开通对企业出口产品质量的影响。机制分析表明：县域高铁开通促进了要素流动,进而通过管理效率提升效应、驱动研发创新效应和优质中间品匹配效应影响企业出口产品质量升级。异质性分析表明：对于管理效率高的企业、异质性产品和核心产品及距离中心城市较远的县域,高铁开通的质量升级效应更显著。     

马克思主义与中华优秀传统文化深度结合的三个问题

马克思主义同中华优秀传统文化在新时代的深度结合,面临二者的关系处理、维度把控、标准把握三个问题。破解马克思主义与中华优秀传统文化的关系处理这一基础性问题,需要把稳方向、准确定位、明晰主次、分清先后;破解马克思主义与中华优秀传统文化的维度把控这一关键性问题,需要找准角度、掌握精度、把握广度;破解马克思主义与中华优秀传统文化结合的标准把握这一核心性问题,需要准确把握这种深度结合对现实问题的解释标准、对文化自信的提升标准、对人民利益的满足标准。只有精准破解这三大问题,才能有效破解新时代两种文化深度结合的内在阻碍、深层障碍,真正全面实现二者的有机结合和有效结合。     

Exploration on Theory and Practice of Self-development Education for College Students

Human self-development is a kind of development form which fully reflects the initiative of human and has the characteristics of self-consciousness, individuality and sustainability. Based on the theory of human self-development, self-development education for college students should focus on stimulating students' self-development consciousness, cultivating students' self-development abilities such as self-awareness, self-design, self-learning and self-management, and gradually embarking on the road of self-development.     

迷思与反思:计算广告学的演进逻辑与现实判断

计算广告在中国的发展路径一直秉承着技术逻辑与市场逻辑的双重推动,相对传统广告,它正经历模型的三维到一维、目的的品牌到直接市场、生态的直线到多方平台等全方位颠覆。然而,计算广告学的研究却相对滞后。数据、决策和创意是计算广告实现的思维力、统筹力和创新力,也是计算广告学构建的三种知识能力。计算广告学的外部知识供给已成熟,内部知识孵化渐成体系,回应了其学科属性。作为一门新的学科,计算广告学在现实发展中面临着技术迷思带来的工具理性放大而导致价值理性缺失等问题,需要承担其经济属性与意识形态性双重责任。同时,基于对计算广告学的反思,分析了其学科定位、人才培养的框架设置及未来发展的整合模型,以期推动计算广告学研究的良性有序发展。     

收入、预期寿命和社会养老保险收入再分配效应

本文在考虑职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者寿命存在异质性的情况下，通过内部收益率的计算考察典型不同缴费基数参保者之间的养老金收入再分配效应。首先根据省级宏观截面数据估计了职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者退休时的平均余命，再据此分别计算和比较不同参保群体的内部收益率。 研究发现职工基本养老保险制度总体上呈现微弱的正向收入再分配效应。虽然低缴费基数参保者内部收益率略高于中、高缴费基数参保职工，但其内部收益率因相对较短的寿命而大大降低。这也提醒政策制定者在研究制定延迟退休、社会养老保险全国统筹等政策时需要充分考虑参保职工内部不同群体间的平均预期寿命差别，对低收入参保者予以特别关注。     

有限责任公司涉章决议中的股权保护——基于对公司法人理论的思考

伴随《中华人民共和国民法总则》以及《最高人民法院关于适用〈中华人民共和国公司法〉若干问题的规定（四）》的施行，公司章程在公司法人治理中的地位进一步得到提升。但现代性条件下股东、公司法人以及外部社会之间的张力尚存，且现有法人理论不足以支撑公司尤其是有限责任公司的治理实践。为更好地规范涉章决议以避免其侵害股东权益，仍需进一步发掘我国公司法人理论。从股东在有限责任公司法人共同体中的特殊性权利义务出发，在公司法人差异化，章程、股东权类型化的前提下实现股东合法利益的最大化。     

合作社对小农户发展生态农业的影响——基于倾向得分匹配法的实证分析

以湖南省298户小农户作为研究对象,运用倾向得分匹配法来评估其在发展生态农业过程中合作社的中介作用.结果 显示:不同匹配方法的平均处理效应为加入合作社比不加入的小农户高23.7％的可能性.合作社在不同协变量的中介效应由强到弱依次为:认知能力、学历程度、市场预期、政策感知、农业年收入,这说明合作社是稳定且有效的中介.因此建议:为了使乡村振兴战略中扶持小农户发展生态农业的指导意见尽快实施,应优先选择自我发展能力强、整体素质较高的合作社作为扶持对象.以合作社为中介的小农户生态转型,为了实现可持续性和不可逆转性,要以一定的市场需求为驱动.本文所得结论可为立志转型的小农户规避风险提供有价值的建议,并为农业部门制定相关的扶持政策提供一定的依据与参考.