Optimal Bandwidth Selection in Heteroskedasticity–Autocorrelation Robust Testing

This paper considers studentized tests in time series regressions with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors. The studentization is based on robust standard errors with truncation lag M=bT for some constant b∈(0, 1] and sample size T. It is shown that the nonstandard fixed‐b limit distributions of such nonparametrically studentized tests provide more accurate approximations to the finite sample distributions than the standard small‐b limit distribution. We further show that, for typical economic time series, the optimal bandwidth that minimizes a weighted average of type I and type II errors is larger by an order of magnitude than the bandwidth that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error of the corresponding long‐run variance estimator. A plug‐in procedure for implementing this optimal bandwidth is suggested and simulations (not reported here) confirm that the new plug‐in procedure works well in finite samples.     

Early intervention and holistic,relationship‐based practice with fathers: evidence from the work of the Family Nurse Partnership

This paper seeks to add to the literature on working with fathers by focusing on early intervention. It draws on research into fathers involved in a home visitation service delivered by the Family Nurse Partnership in England and evaluates the men's experiences of the intervention. The vulnerability of fathers was striking and many were helped to develop their practical skills and confidence in caring for their babies. The intervention was effective because of the quality time that was invested in developing relationships with fathers (as well as mothers), the focus on their strengths as well as areas for improvement and the skilled, therapeutically oriented, holistic approach through which the service was delivered. The ‘early’ nature of the help was crucial to its success because of how it so effectively tapped into the men's redefinition of themselves as caring fathers during pregnancy and following the birth. We argue that there is important learning here for social care and health services in general about how to engage men and promote fathers' capacities to care for their children.     

Deprivation and Poverty in Hong Kong

Despite high and rising real incomes, the poverty rate in Hong Kong remains a cause of community concern. The government has been reluctant to set a poverty line, although the recently (re‐)established Commission on Poverty has recommended that a poverty line for Hong Kong is developed. Against this background, this article reports results derived from a new deprivation study designed to shed new light on the living standards of the poorest in the community. Reflecting international studies, deprivation is identified as existing when people do not have and cannot afford items regarded by a majority in the community as being essential for all. A list of 35 basic needs items is identified as meeting this definition, the results indicating that around 30 per cent are deprived of at least two items, over 18 per cent are deprived of at least four items and 10 per cent are deprived of at least eight items. Deprivation rates are particularly high among items that meet basic health needs. A mean deprivation score index (MDIS) is then used to compare the degree of deprivation experienced by different groups, and indicates that deprivation is most pronounced amongst those receiving Comprehensive Social Security Assistance (CSSA), people affected by a disability and recent migrants. The overlap between deprivation and income poverty is also relatively low, which suggests both measures have a role to play in identifying who is most vulnerable and guiding where policy change is most urgently needed.     

Addressing common forms of child maltreatment: evidence‐informed interventions and gaps in current knowledge

This paper reviews interventions for preventing the occurrence and recurrence of major types of child maltreatment. We begin with an overview of the challenges of establishing evidence‐based interventions to prevent child abuse and neglect in many countries, and underscore the importance of this need with child maltreatment incidence rates in the USA, and how much each type and subtype contribute to child out‐of‐home placement. Next, we identify the well‐supported, supported and promising interventions for each child maltreatment type and subtype, according to their level of research evidence using an evidence‐based clearing house. The paper closes with a discussion of the implications for practice, evaluation, policy and agency management, including intervention knowledge gaps that showcase areas that need additional practice research.     

From Amazon to Apple: Modeling Online Retail Sales,Purchase Incidence,and Visit Behavior

In this study, we propose a multivariate stochastic model for Web site visit duration, page views, purchase incidence, and the sale amount for online retailers. The model is constructed by composition from carefully selected distributions and involves copula components. It allows for the strong nonlinear relationships between the sales and visit variables to be explored in detail, and can be used to construct sales predictions. The model is readily estimated using maximum likelihood, making it an attractive choice in practice given the large sample sizes that are commonplace in online retail studies. We examine a number of top-ranked U.S. online retailers, and find that the visit duration and the number of pages viewed are both related to sales, but in very different ways for different products. Using Bayesian methodology, we show how the model can be extended to a finite mixture model to account for consumer heterogeneity via latent household segmentation. The model can also be adjusted to accommodate a more accurate analysis of online retailers like apple.com that sell products at a very limited number of price points. In a validation study across a range of different Web sites, we find that the purchase incidence and sales amount are both forecast more accurately using our model, when compared to regression, probit regression, a popular data-mining method, and a survival model employed previously in an online retail study. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Trust and Welfare State Reform: The Example of the NHS

This article discusses the impact of New Public Management on public trust in welfare state institutions, using the example of NHS reform. Discussion of trust in public institutions across political science, psychology and sociology indicates that it is based on both rational/objective considerations (competence and capacity to deliver the service) and affectual/subjective factors (shared values, belief that the trustee shares the trustor's interests). The New Public Management foregrounds individual responsibility and incentives for both suppliers and users of services, in the NHS example in quasi‐markets, management by target and patient choice. These accord with an individualized market rational‐actor model rather than with affective considerations. Analysis of attitude survey data on the NHS confirms that rational/objective and affectual/subjective factors contribute to public trust in this field. However, a comparison between perceptions in England, where the internal market has been vigorously pursued, and Scotland, where the purchaser/provider split was discarded after devolution, indicate that the market does not offer a royal road to perceptions of superior quality in the objective factors. Conversely, the more market‐centred system can make progress in relation to the more subjective affectual factors.     

Causes of ambiguity aversion: Known versus unknown preferences

Ambiguity aversion appears to have subtle psychological causes. Curley, Yates, and Abrams found that the fear of negative evaluation by others (FNE) increases ambiguity aversion. This paper introduces a design in which preferences can be private information of individuals, so that FNE can be avoided entirely. Thus, we can completely control for FNE and other social factors, and can determine exactly to what extent ambiguity aversion is driven by such social factors. In our experiment ambiguity aversion, while appearing as commonly found in the presence of FNE, disappears entirely if FNE is eliminated. Implications are discussed.