产需不确定下基于零售商风险规避的三级供应链组合契约模型

针对产需不确定下单一供应商、制造商和风险规避的零售商组成的三级供应链系统,建立了分散和集中情况下的最优决策模型。通过设计风险共担和GL组合契约实现了三级供应链的协调。讨论了风险规避零售商的最优订购决策,分析了风险规避对供应链期望效益的影响。比较了风险规避和风险中性两种情况下零售商的最优决策。探讨了组合契约的协调问题及契约参数之间的关系。研究表明供应链的期望利润随着产需不确定的增加而减少,风险规避下零售商的期望利润低于风险中性时的期望利润,零售商的期望利润随着风险规避程度的加大而减少,零售商最优订购量随风险规避程度的增加而变化。最后数值算例验证了模型和契约协调的有效性。     

What ‘works’ when retracing sample members in a qualitative longitudinal study?

Attrition represents a significant obstacle to overcome in any longitudinal research project. It is, perhaps, most keenly felt when the data collected are from a qualitative study, since, unlike quantitative longitudinal research, weighting factors cannot be applied to ‘correct’ for any biases in the achieved sample and even a small number of ‘lost’ respondents can equate to a large percentage of the original sample. It is perhaps because of qualitative longitudinal research’s (QLR) reliance on, generally speaking, smaller samples that few have been able to shed much light on which re-contacting procedures are associated with achieving higher rates of retention. In this article, using data from a fifth sweep of a larger but particularly challenging cohort of 199 former probationers, we explore the strategies which helped us maintain high levels of retention in a QLR study. The article contains many practical suggestions which others planning or undertaking similar studies may find useful.     

高校教师要坚持走科研与教学相长之路

教学和科研是高校的两大主要职能,作为大学教师两者都不能偏废。教学是科研的基础,科研是教学的延伸,实现教学与科研互动,教学与科研相长,才能做一名优秀的大学教师。     

中国企业经营国际化策略探析

本文从认识国际化的现状到分析国际化的未来发展及趋势,着重分析了中国在国际化的这条道路上已开创了怎样的一个局面和国际化策略在未来中国的发展中面临的问题及其解决方法。认为,中国政府应采用适当的倾斜政策,重点扶持一批优势行业和“龙头企业”,使它们能率先具备国际竞争的实力,制定并实施跨国公司战略,同时,中国企业在国际化经营中要放弃急功近利的思想。     

北流白话的介词及其用法

文章通过与现代汉语普通话介词的比较,确定了北流白话介词的数量和类型,并且比较全面地描写了北流白话的17个介词。     

帮闲寄主西门庆形象试论

《金瓶梅》中有关西门庆与帮闲交往的描写占据了相当篇幅,以其步入官场为界,双方的交往可分为前后两个阶段,尤其是他后期的养闲之举颇为引人瞩目。西门庆养闲既包含着小人得志、自我炫耀的因素,也有物色人选帮忙应付日常事务的考量,还体现了在其融入官僚阶层的艰难进程中,缓释自身心理压力的诉求。通过对双方关系的考察及西门庆养闲内在原因的深入探究,有助于我们更为全面、客观地把握西门庆这一复杂的人物形象。     

DURATION MODELS FOR CREDIT RATING MIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

We introduce a specific duration model to analyze the prediction of the credit rating migration. We consider hazard rate processes based on multi‐state autoregressive conditional duration models. To take account of the economic context, we model the conditional mean of the duration between two ratings by means of a latent process. To this purpose, a dynamic‐ordered probit model is developed to describe the directions taken by the ratings in the presence of multiple states. As an illustration, we study the migration of credit rating during periods before and after the financial crisis. (JEL C14, C41, G24)     

ACADEMIC PROBATION,STUDENT PERFORMANCE,AND STRATEGIC COURSE‐TAKING

We use a regression discontinuity design to study how academic probation affects outcomes and course‐taking behaviors at a large public university in the United States. Consistent with past work, students placed on probation improve their grade point average (GPA) in the subsequent semester. We document that part of this GPA improvement is attributable to strategic course‐taking, and there is significant heterogeneity in these behaviors across race. Non‐minority students placed on probation attempt fewer credits, easier courses, and are more likely to withdraw from courses in the following term. In contrast, underrepresented minorities exhibit few of these behaviors, consistent with past work that suggests black and Hispanic students are less likely to possess helpful institutional knowledge and use available support systems such as academic counseling. (JEL I20, I23)     

Aesthetic matters: writing and Cultural Studies

What would it mean to treat Cultural Studies as a project that has had amongst its accomplishments the production of new forms and styles of writing, and a generative approach to aesthetics? An initial answer to this question would be that this would recognize how Cultural Studies interceded in an academic environment not only through its concern with supplying ambitious questions and insisting on a broad range of objects of scrutiny, but also by showing how this often entailed reconfiguring the forms through which intellectual inquiry conveyed its cargo. This article doesn’t seek to provide a taxonomy of Cultural Studies’ forms and styles; what it seeks to do is to encourage a self-reflexive attention to aesthetics within Cultural Studies as a form of practice. It suggests that there are two guiding questions that might frame such an attention: how might Cultural Studies generate forms that are adequate to the complexity of the configurations that it seeks to register; and how might Cultural Studies generate forms that could reach the ear of new audiences not attuned to the cadences of scholarly writing? The tension between these two questions should be seen as an invitation to purposeful experimentation within Cultural Studies.     

自我建构对消费者促销方式偏好的影响

  形式多样的促销手段成为企业在激烈市场竞争中赢得胜利的重要方式。已有研究涉及的促销方式直接受益实体都是消费者自身,随着消费者社会责任意识的提高,直接受益实体为慈善机构的捐赠促销活动不断出现,然而很少有学者对不同受益实体的促销方式的效果进行比较。         基于信息框架理论和调节定向理论,以打折促销和捐赠促销为研究对象,运用分类变量中介检验和3阶交互效应方法,通过Spss软件中的Process插件进行Bootstrap中介效应分析,解释调节定向在不同自我建构消费者对两种促销方式偏好关系中的中介作用机制,并引入感知风险和感知稀缺两个变量,探究其在自我建构对消费者促销方式偏好影响中的调节作用。         研究结果表明,调节定向在自我建构与促销方式选择的关系中起中介作用,即拥有独立自我建构的消费者认为促进定向信息说服力更强,从而偏好打折促销方式;拥有依存自我建构的消费者认为防御定向信息说服力更强,从而偏好捐赠促销方式。当感知风险较高时,防御定向信息强化依存自我建构的消费者对捐赠促销方式的偏好;当感知风险较低时,促进定向信息强化独立自我建构的消费者对打折促销方式的偏好。当感知稀缺较高时,防御定向信息强化独立自我建构的消费者对打折促销方式的偏好;当感知稀缺较低时,促进定向信息强化依存自我建构的消费者对捐赠促销方式的偏好。         在理论上拓展了信息框架效应的相关研究,揭示了自我建构与调节定向作用关系的适用边界。通过检验不同自我建构消费者对调节定向相匹配的促销信息评价机制,证明促销活动中的匹配机制可使促销效果更佳。在实践上,为企业在不同消费情景下面对不同特点消费者制定相应的促销活动提供了策略指导,从而提升企业的销售利润。