房价波动与CPI关系的计量分析

2004年以来我国房价涨幅过高,房价指数波动加剧。但房价的变动并没有体现在我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)中。通过对房屋销售价格指数与居民消费价格指数关系的计量分析,证实了二者间不仅有比较显著的相关关系,而且存在因果关系,房屋销售价格指数是居民消费价格指数的格兰杰(Granger)原因。在格兰杰因果关系分析的基础上,以房屋销售价格指数作为外生变量,建立了居民消费价格指数的自回归分布滞后模型,具体量化了房屋销售价格指数对居民消费价格指数的影响。     

Algorithms for the minimum diameter terminal Steiner tree problem

Given an undirected connected graph \(G=(V(G),E(G),d)\) with a function \(d(\cdot )\ge 0\) on edges and a subset \(S\subseteq V(G)\) of terminals, the minimum diameter terminal Steiner tree problem (MDTSTP) asks for a terminal Steiner tree in \(G\) of a minimum diameter. In the paper, the diameter of a tree refers to the longest of all the distances between two different leaves of the tree. When \(G\) is a complete graph and \(d(\cdot )\) is a metric function, we demonstrate that an optimal solution of MDTSTP is monopolar or dipolar and give an \(O(|S|\cdot |V(G)\setminus S|^2)\) -time exact algorithm. For the nonmetric version of MDTSTP, we present a simple 2-approximation algorithm with a time complexity of \(O(|V(G)\setminus S|\log |S|)\) , as well as two exact algorithms with a time complexity of \(O(|S|^3|V(G)|^2)\) and \(O(|S|\cdot |V(G)\setminus S|^2+|S|^2\cdot |V(G)\setminus S|)\) , respectively.     

An inquiry into expected lifetime fertility]

Expected lifetime fertility rate, or completed fertility rate, refers specifically to the cumulative fertility rate of a cohort of women after the age of reproducibility; however, in China's case, "reproduccibility" virtually ends after a woman gives birth to a 2nd child (assuming both children live). Hypothetical situations specific to China's system of family planning are presented and analyzed; statistical formulas and lifetime fertility rates (including allowances for violations of the e child policy), are provided.     

Numerical Simulation of Population Distribution in China

A model for simulating population distribution (MSPD) of China is developed based on the grid generation method and the Control of MapObjects of geographical information system. Elevation, net primary productivity, land use and land cover, city sizes and their spatial distribution, and spatial distribution of transport infrastructures are taken into full account in the MSPD. The result from the MSPD shows that in 2000, 90.8% of the total population of China distributed on the southeastern side of the Heihe-Tengchong line. The ratio of population on the northwestern side to total population of China has been increasing since 1935. The yearly growth rate was 0.8% from 1935 to 1990 and 6.1% from 1990 to 2000. One important advantage of the MSPD is that when scenarios of land cover, spatial distributions of transport infrastructures and cities are available, scenarios of spatial population distribution can be developed on the basis of total population forecast.     

新疆市县经济跨越式发展的新思路

21世纪初的前10年,是新疆实现跨越式发展,进一步缩小与发达地区经济发展差距的关键 时期。在这期间,在实现新疆经济的持续快速协调发展和社会全面进步的过程中,市县经济的跨越式发展 将起到重要的作用。为此,应该立足于当前新疆市县经济发展的总体格局和主要特点,针对其中存在的突 出问题,积极探索实现新疆市县经济跨越式发展的新思路。     

影响我国国民经济运行安全因素产生的原因

国民经济运行安全与国家经济安全、资源战略安全等理论有明确区别。导致国民经济运行安全各种因素产生的原因较复杂,可归纳为四大类:一是主观意识的原因,如社会弱势群体的个体心理承受能力,人们对经济全球化的适应能力等;二是国民经济运行系统总量不平衡的原因,包括资源供给与需求不平衡,劳动力供给与需求不平衡,产品供需不平衡以及资金供需不平衡等;三是各种制度实施滞后的原因,如就业制度、社会保障制度、收入分配制度以及金融体制改革制度滞后等;四是各种体制的不合理、不完善,如经济增长方式不合理,社会公共卫生系统不完善。针对这些原因,应从主观意识、国民经济运行系统总量、制度、体制等方面有针对性地制定国民经济运行安全的原则和安全预警系统。     

明代长城沿线的植木造林

自15世纪初起,明帝国北边国防在线的森林,不断遭到盗砍与滥伐,许多山地的森林日渐枯竭。因此,官员除一再建请禁制与查缉之外,也有人提议于边境补栽树木。后来,朝廷便将种树列为边区镇守官员的考绩项目之一。在1560年代,燕山山脉上更曾植树930多万株。然而整体说来,明代中后期边关植树的成效并不彰,无法挽救森林日少的情况。     

从面子礼貌体系角度探析中西方面子观的差异

面子是一种普遍存在的社会文化现象。介绍Penelope Brown和Stephen C.Levinson的面子礼貌理论,据此阐述中西方维护面子的差异:中国文化倾向于对正面子的维护,西方文化偏重保全交际者的负面子。从历史、价值观体系角度分析造成中西方面子观差异的根源:中国文化中面子观根植于群体意识和儒家文化,而西方文化中面子观受个人主义价值观和契约精神的影响很深。在跨文化交际日益增加的今天,要尽力避免文化差异造成的误解和冲突,使跨文化交际顺利进行。     

System Transformation and Development Path on Medical Care

China's basic medical care system has achieved universal coverage, faced the system transformation with substance fair. Under the transformation background from universal coverage to integration on urban and rural areas, and the transformation direction from the "medical care" to "health for all", through the institutional transition path on system design, service delivery, fi nancial support, this paper points out that how to improve quality of medical care and optimizing the level of health care services, match sustainable funding system and improving payment system, which in public health, medical services, medical care and medicine supply, realize the transformation and the development from universal medical care to health care.     

微博主影响力评价指标体系的科学构建

微博营销是蕴含无穷价值的新媒体营销的典型代表,而充分发挥高影响力微博主的意见领袖效应则是微博营销的重点,因此,如何科学地评估微博主影响力,进而识别出高端微博主群体,成为微博营销成功的关键。在媒介影响力形成理论的指导下,通过理论遴选和隶属度分析、相关性分析、鉴别力分析三步实证遴选,可构建由“微博使用时间”、“原创微博数”、“微博主业内知名度”、“粉丝转发次数”等8个指标构成的微博主影响力评价指标体系。该指标体系完整地涵盖了媒介影响力形成的接触、认知、说服、二次传播四个环节,能够更客观、科学地衡量微博主的影响力。