珠江三角洲发展重化工业的构想

珠三角是广东经济核心与基地，其产业结构迅速向高层次发展，形成外向型工业体系。本文论述珠三角具有发展重化工业的优势，指出重化工业替代轻工业成为支柱产业是经济高速发展的必然要求，并提出珠三角重化工业集中二个地区布局的设想     

委托─代理理论中自然状态的不确定性对最优契约影响的研究

本文考虑了委托─代理理论中代理人和委托人对于不确定的自然状态可能会有不同的概率,另外还考虑了自然状态对代理人努力负效用的影响,对委托─代理模型进行了拓展研究,使原有模型成为一个特例。通过一个简化的委托─代理框架进行分析,结果表明,代理人对自然状态的概率与代理人可能付出的努力水平有正相关关系,而且代理人和委托人对自然状态的概率对最优契约有不可忽视的影响。     

现代派文学的“正统”与“反叛”

一般论者都认为现代派文学是“反传统”、“反理性”、“审丑”的,我的意见是：“正统”与“反叛”得兼。从其内容的深层含义和写作根本规律说,现代派文学与正统文学是一脉相承的;但从其艺术外部特征和某些表象来说,现代派文学似乎是离经叛道的。现代派文学与传统文学其实不是“正统”与“反叛”的关系,而是各具个性的文坛孪生兄弟关系     

黄庭坚诗歌在金元的传播

金元时期黄庭坚诗歌的主要传播方式有:文学传习活动、诗学著作、诗歌选本、黄集重刊、书法作品等,前四种是集本传播,为文学隔代传播的主要方式,后一种则是单篇传播,是黄庭坚作为诗人兼书法家的诗作在后世传播中独具的特色。其中,有着较强地域性传播特征的文学传习活动和《瀛奎律髓》这样颇具影响力的诗歌选本,对黄庭坚诗歌在金元的传播起到了重要作用。     

宁安满族关氏家祭礼俗探源

宁安满族关氏家祭礼俗是在长期的历史发展过程中,受多种因素影响而逐渐形成的.正是在满族古老的萨满教信仰,独特的生产、生活习俗和社会历史条件等因素的综合作用下,形成了具有鲜明民族特色的祭祀风俗.宁安关氏家族是满族大家庭中的一员,从其家祭礼俗中,我们可以管窥到满族古老风俗发展、演进的文化轨迹.     

提高收入水平是实现小康目标的重要途径

提高收入水平是实现小康目标的重要途径邱晓华,万东华所谓小康,就是千百年来人们一直向往和追求的殷实生活,是指在温饱的基础上,生活质量进一步提高,达到丰衣足食。七届人大四次会议通过的“八五计划和十年规划”中的小康图象是。“生活资料更加丰裕,消费结构趋于合...     

Parametric and nonparametric methods for confidence intervals and sample size planning for win probability in parallel-group randomized trials with Likert item and Likert scale data

Data on the Likert scale are ubiquitous in medical research, including randomized trials. Statistical analysis of such data may be conducted using the means of raw scores or the rank information of the scores. In the context of parallel-group randomized trials, we quantify treatment effects by the probability that a subject in the treatment group has a better score than (or a win over) a subject in the control group. Asymptotic parametric and nonparametric confidence intervals for this win probability and associated sample size formulas are derived for studies with only follow-up scores, and those with both baseline and follow-up measurements. We assessed the performance of both the parametric and nonparametric approaches using simulation studies based on real studies with Likert item and Likert scale data. The simulation results demonstrate that even without baseline adjustment, the parametric methods did not perform well, in terms of bias, interval coverage percentage, balance of tail error, and assurance of achieving a pre-specified precision. In contrast, the nonparametric approach performed very well for both the unadjusted and adjusted win probability. We illustrate the methods with two examples: one using Likert item data and the other using Like scale data. We conclude that non-parametric methods are preferable for two-group randomization trials with Likert data. Illustrative SAS code for the nonparametric approach using existing procedures is provided.     

建立“国际收支核算矩阵”的构想

建立“国际收支核算矩阵”的构想邱东一、问题的提起纵观近年来国际经济发展,可以发现两个趋势：一是国际收支占ＧＮＰ的比重逐年上升Ｉ再一是国际经济活动区域化。由这两个趋势引发出分地区来分析国际收支状况的必要性,这需要一个合适的工具,本文提出“国际收支核算矩...     

略论维新派对近代科学方法的传播与运用

近代中国从西方输入近代科学方法始于维新派,他们对实验方法、逻辑方法、数学方法均进行了一定程度的传播和运用。但总的看来,只有逻辑方法的引进比较系统全面,而且这些方法基本上还没有直接应用到科学研究之中,然而开创之功与思想启蒙意义不可低估     

Caffeine intake is not associated with serum testosterone levels in adult men: cross-sectional findings from the NHANES 1999–2004 and 2011–2012

Objective: The association of caffeine intake with testosterone remains unclear. We evaluated the association of caffeine intake with serum testosterone among American men and determined whether this association varied by race/ethnicity and measurements of adiposity.

Methods: Data were analyzed for 2581 men (≥20?years old) who participated in the cycles of the NHANES 1999–2004 and 2011–2012, a cross-sectional study. Testosterone (ng/mL) was measured by immunoassay among men who participated in the morning examination session. We analyzed 24-h dietary recall data to estimate caffeine intake (mg/day). Multivariable weighted linear regression models were conducted.

Results: We identified no linear relationship between caffeine intake and testosterone levels in the total population, but there was a non-linear association (p_nonlinearity?p_nonlinearity?≤?.03 both) and only among men with waist circumference <102?cm and body mass index <25?kg/m² (p_nonlinearity?Conclusion: No linear association was identified between levels of caffeine intake and testosterone in US men, but we observed a non-linear association, including among racial/ethnic groups and measurements of adiposity in this cross-sectional study. These associations are warranted to be investigated in larger prospective studies.