Generalized Leverage and its Applications

The generalized leverage of an estimator is defined in regression models as a measure of the importance of individual observations. We derive a simple but powerful result, developing an explicit expression for leverage in a general M -estimation problem, of which the maximum likelihood problems are special cases. A variety of applications are considered, most notably to the exponential family non-linear models. The relationship between leverage and local influence is also discussed. Numerical examples are given to illustrate our results     

宽带卫星通信和星际链路间激光通信的应用前景

提出了由于信息化社会、Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ、Ｉｎｔｒａｎｅｔ和多媒体技术的出现,从而要求卫星通信向多体制、多功能发展。文中着重分析了具有独特优点的激光通信在宽带卫星通信和星际链路中的现实商用前景。     

獭兔养殖综合技术研究

对獭兔的适应性、饲养管理、疾病防治、产品加工等养殖综合技术进行了研究,提出了獭兔的“三改、两杯、两早一分和两选两适”规范化饲养管理制度和疾病综合防治技术措施,探索出了优质獭兔毛皮和“富钙兔肉脯”的加工工艺以及獭兔良种推广的有效途径。     

Marriage selection and age patterns of mortality: a mathematical investigation

"In this paper, we use simulation models to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between the marriage selection process and the resulting RMRs [relative mortality ratios]. In particular, we show that marriage selection alone can produce a relative mortality ratio which remains large and relatively constant at ages far beyond the marriage span....Our general objective...is to determine the range of age patterns of relative mortality which could, in theory, result from marriage selection on the basis of health characteristics. We also evaluate the effects of variations in the marriage selection mechanisms on the resulting mortality patterns....We develop and apply several simple mathematical models of the marriage selection process. In order to distinguish the potential consequences of marriage selection from marriage protection, we consider hypothetical populations in which causal effects are absent....We begin by considering an extremely simple marriage selection process and subsequently explore a more realistic selection model based on recent death and marriage rates for Japan."     

新产品市场扩展的宏观技术经济特征:──日、美化工、电气产品的实证研究

本文通过实证研究,揭示发达国家新产品的市场扩展过程。发现新产品伴随一系列技术创新而成长,继而推动相关工业的发展；新产品市场扩展遵循Logistic扩展规律,扩展参数呈现不同的行业分布；虽然经济危机对其产生严重阻扰影响,但新产品扩展具有顽强的规律回复功能。     

Inapproximability and approximability of maximal tree routing and coloring

Let G be a undirected connected graph. Given g groups each being a subset of V(G) and a number of colors, we consider how to find a subgroup of subsets such that there exists a tree interconnecting all vertices in each subset and all trees can be colored properly with given colors (no two trees sharing a common edge receive the same color); the objective is to maximize the number of subsets in the subgroup. This problem arises from the application of multicast communication in all optical networks. In this paper, we first obtain an explicit lower bound on the approximability of this problem and prove Ω(g^1−ε)-inapproximability even when G is a mesh. We then propose a simple greedy algorithm that achieves performance ratio O√|E(G)|, which matches the theoretical bounds. Supported in part by the NSF of China under Grant No. 70221001 and 60373012.     

边界Logistic违约率模型Bayes分析及实证研究

Cramer^[1]指出了一般Logistic违约率模型容易出现的问题并提出了边界Logistic违约率模型.本文采用了不同于Cramer(2004)的Bayes分析方法对边界Logistic模型的后验分布的性质进行了分析,从理论上说明了边界Logistic违约率模型更优越的原因.然后利用中国公司数据展开实证研究,不仅找到了Cramer问题的中国证据,同时还发现Bayes边界Logistic违约率模型不仅能够克服Cramer问题,而且对临界值不敏感,同时预测效率也相对较高.     

我国上市公司独立审计质量的博弈模型刻画及其分析

本文分析了我国上市公司独立审计中会计师事务所、公司管理当局、独立董事、监管部门在审计行为中的博弈关系,应用博弈经济理论研究了在信息不对称条件下四方互动博弈策略的选择,并针对多方博弈的影响因素提出了提高独立审计质量的策略,以期对改进我国上市公司独立审计质量有所裨益.     

企业人力资本定价的博弈论与系统动力学分析

人力资本定价是人力资本理论的核心问题,在一系列假设的基础上,运用系统动力学原理构建人力资本定价对企业合约牢固度的影响模型,运用博弈论对该模型进行静态和动态的分析.结果表明,当人力资本定价使人力资本与非人力资本对各自的投资回报率均满意时,企业合约才是牢固的;当双方只有一方满意时,随着博弈次数的增加,双方会趋向均满意或均不满意.对假设进行了修正分析,得到人力资本合理定价应当遵循的三大原则,即双赢原则和间接、多次、动态原则以及鼓励再投资原则.     

二维GPSJ分布类及其在保险中的应用

本文给出的二维GPSJ分布类(即GPSJ2)在保险领域应用范围较广,如由机动车辆保险由财产损失索赔次数和人身伤亡索赔次数所组成的模型、超额再保险中的由自留保单数和分出报单数所组成的二维模型等。本文在GPSJ1类基础上研究二维GPSJ类,本文给出了此分布类的定义、背景意义、概率计算的递推公式,同时还对各参数的最大似然估计值的求解过程进行了分析。本文最后将这一模型应用于一组机动车辆赔付次数数据,考虑了由财产损失索赔次数、人身伤亡索赔次数组成的二维模型,拟合效果令人满意。