中国证券业总产出和增加值测算研究

 金融机构总产出和增加值的测算是一项基础性的研究工作。与传统测算方法不同,本文借鉴经济合作和发展组织（OECD）提出的使用者成本法,把证券业视为生产性服务活动,并结合我国的实际情况,从服务的角度初步提出了我国证券业总产出和增加值的测算框架。并提出了未来研究改进的方向。     

The generalized two-sided power distribution

The generalized standard two-sided power (GTSP) distribution was mentioned only in passing by Kotz and van Dorp Beyond Beta, Other Continuous Families of Distributions with Bounded Support and Applications, World Scientific Press, Singapore, 2004. In this paper, we shall further investigate this three-parameter distribution by presenting some novel properties and use its more general form to contrast the chronology of developments of various authors on the two-parameter TSP distribution since its initial introduction. GTSP distributions allow for J-shaped forms of its pdf, whereas TSP distributions are limited to U-shaped and unimodal forms. Hence, GTSP distributions possess the same three distributional shapes as the classical beta distributions. A novel method and algorithm for the indirect elicitation of the two-power parameters of the GTSP distribution is developed. We present a Project Evaluation Review Technique example that utilizes this algorithm and demonstrates the benefit of separate powers for the two branches of activity GTSP distributions for project completion time uncertainty estimation.     

论大学文化视阈下的思想政治教育

思想政治教育是中国共产党的政治优势。建设具有中国特色社会主义的大学文化需要继承和发扬党的这一传统优势。思想政治教育不能局限在单纯的政治范畴之内,还应该在大学文化建设中发挥重要作用,是大学文化建设的“生命线”,也是实施大学文化建设的基本途径。充分认识思想政治教育的文化战略地位,积极推动大学文化建设,是大学思想政治教育的重要方略。     

游牧经济的机动性分析--以古代蒙古族的游牧经济为例

1800年以前,世界的军事优势一直控制在生活在亚欧大陆腹地的游牧民族手中.在此前两千五百多年间,游牧民族曾经在亚欧大陆纵横驰骋,东亚、南亚、西亚和欧洲的许多农业帝国纷纷被来自草原的游牧民族所吞并,其原因何在呢?本文认为,这正是游牧民族独特的生产方式赋予游牧民族的灵活的机动性所致.     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.     

海河图书馆应用地下储能技术的可行性分析

海河图书馆是天津市海河开发规划确定的公建项目.按照天津市政府提出的建筑应达到"三步节能"的要求,该项目已被列入天津市节能建筑示范工程.     

What is Integration? A Comparative View from Immigrants and Municipal Policy

The ongoing project of citizenship construction in societies receiving international immigration demands a perspective that takes into account the interests, views and needs of all socio-demographic groups, including those of newcomers as potential new citizens. We interviewed representatives of 16 immigrant associations operating in the Spanish autonomous community of Galicia, reviewed immigration policy in 13 Spanish (Galician) municipalities, and interviewed 20 municipal government staff members who put these into practice. With this research, we aim to explore the perspectives of immigrants with respect to their own integration and to examine how these compare with local policies designed to facilitate these processes. By comparing the immigrant representatives' perceptions with local policy discourses and practice, our study reveals how local integration practice is not only inconsistent with its own policy discourse but also fails to consider and include immigrants' own understandings of what integration means and how it can be achieved.     

基于地理加权回归的山区人口分布影响因素实证研究——以贵州省毕节地区为例

山区人口分布受多种经济、社会等非空间因素的影响外,还与不同区域的地理分布有密切关系。文章以贵州省毕节地区为例,以乡镇区域为研究单元,运用地理加权回归(GWR)分析方法,兼与全局普通二乘法(OLS)方法进行比较,研究人口密度和经济、社会、自然等因素的空间相关关系。研究表明,社会经济因素对毕节山区人口分布的影响大于自然环境因素的影响;海拔对毕节山区人口分布的影响不如坡度的影响显著;综合经济实力、城镇化水平、交通条件和地形条件的好坏与其对人口分布的影响大小呈反相关,而医疗条件的好坏与其对人口分布的影响大小呈正相关。因此,"加强城镇建设、鼓励人口聚集,加强生态移民工作、保护资源环境"是未来毕节地区相关政策的基础。     

论科学发展观的创新性贡献

在中国共产党建党88年、新中国成立60周年的历程中,我党结合革命、建设、改革的形势、任务变化和要求,继承、发展、创新马克思主义理论,推进马克思主义中国化。科学发展观是马克思主义中国化最新理论成果,它对马克思主义发展理论做出了重要贡献。本文从发展观念、发展模式、发展思路和执政理念等六个方面分析了科学发展观所做出的创新性贡献,这些贡献无论在理论上还是在实践中,都将产生深远影响。     

河北省城市基础设施建设市政债券融资问题研究

为保持社会经济平稳快速增长,加快城市化进程,河北省人民政府提出了实现城镇面貌三年大变样的重大战略决策.各地城市基础设施建设资金出现巨大缺口.本文从中国国情和河北省省情出发,根据国外经验指出,发行市政债券是拓宽融资渠道、缓解城市基础设施建设中筹资压力的一个重要举措.