苏州民营快递的用户满意度调查分析

近年来,随着网络购物的迅速发展,快递行业已成为人们日常生活中的重要组成部分.面对激增的快递压力,快件的准确性以及良好服务成为社会关注的重点.运用统计分析方法对苏州民营快递用户满意度影响因子进行分析,结果表明,快递用户满意度最高的四个因素依次是“价格水平”、“服务周期”、“收费标准”和“用户体验”；最重视的四个因素依次是“配送效率”、“服务水平”、“物品安全”和“品牌建设”；而对“信息系统”、“投递服务”、“管理制度”和“网点覆盖”四个因素则感到不满意.苏州民营快递企业需要改进完善的环节主要集中在服务质量、企业品牌、用户感知和基础设施等方面.     

MATERIALISTIC VALUES IN HONG KONG AND GUANGZHOU: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO CHINESE SOCIETIES

This article integrates two competing perspectives on value orientation. Inglehart's postmaterialism thesis stresses the permanent effects of childhood experience in which economic deprivation leads to materialism in adult life. The human development perspective, in contrast, emphasizes the evolution of a person's value system as life-cycle development unfolds new circumstances and possibilities. We adopt a developmental framework to test claims from these two perspectives. On the basis of micro-level data, we compare the materialistic values of two historically and culturally different Chinese societies, Hong Kong and Guangzhou. Findings support Inglehart's assertions that childhood experience has lasting effects and that rapid social changes create birth cohort differences in materialistic concerns. But life-cycle developments, such as education, marriage, and current social status, are equally important in influencing a person's value orientation. Both perspectives see only part of the picture, and an integrated approach is needed to better understand how people construct and maintain their value system.     

金代文教政策的确立与实施

金代作为女真人建立的政权,是中国历史上一个重要时期.金代创立了独具特色的汉、女真两套并行的教育体系和科举体系.从“尊孔崇儒”和“发展女真文化”两方面对金代文教政策的研究,对于认识金代在中国教育史上占有的重要地位有着积极的意义.     

民众知识形态描述

本文对民众知识的存在、层次、思维、内容、传承等形态进行了粗略的描述 ,提出了多种相应的认识推论 ,对民众知识概念及其所关涉的一些问题给予了提示性的回答     

游牧经济的机动性分析--以古代蒙古族的游牧经济为例

1800年以前,世界的军事优势一直控制在生活在亚欧大陆腹地的游牧民族手中.在此前两千五百多年间,游牧民族曾经在亚欧大陆纵横驰骋,东亚、南亚、西亚和欧洲的许多农业帝国纷纷被来自草原的游牧民族所吞并,其原因何在呢?本文认为,这正是游牧民族独特的生产方式赋予游牧民族的灵活的机动性所致.     

清代三山五园地区的买卖街

清朝时期,清帝陆续在三山五园地区修建皇家园林,到乾隆时期发展到了鼎盛阶段。为了满足帝后和皇室人员的好奇心、游赏玩乐需要,以及王公大臣的生活需要;同时,也为下层随侍人员提供了必要的物质补充和精神慰藉,清帝在三山五园中设立民间市肆——买卖街。从园林艺术角度看,买卖街的设立也是园林造景的需要。买卖街的建筑风格,既有仿照江南苏州市肆格局的苏州街,又有典型的北方市肆风格的买卖街,集中体现了当时北方文化与南方文化相互融合的皇家园林风格。      

结构优化对我国农产品出口竞争力的影响

应用产业组织理论,揭示结构优化对农产品国际竞争力的作用机理。以RCA衡量农产品出口竞争力并建立多元回归模型,在有效分离工资、土地灌溉面积和汇率等因素后,实证研究发现技术结构对农产品出口竞争力有显著正向影响。当前经济背景下,提升农产品出口竞争力的政策思路,需从传统的要素禀赋优势转移到结构优化的轨道上来。优化农产品出口结构,政府需加大对高附加值农产品在生产、流通、出口等环节的支持力度,营造寡占的农产品市场结构,鼓励和扶持创意农业的发展。     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.     

Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.     

土地股份合作社内部能形成利益联结机制吗？

土地股份合作社在促进资本与农地结合,实现小农户与现代农业衔接上具有独特优势。通过对普通社员与核心社员在土地股份合作社不同发展阶段的可选策略的讨论,分析合作社不同发展阶段利益联结机制的特征,并对黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市克山县仁发合作社的利益联结机制进行案例研究后提出:土地股份合作社坚持“退社自由”原则有利于保护普通社员的基本权益,但不利于在合作社内部形成“风险共担”机制,要在保证普通社员基本权益的同时建立“利益共享、风险共担”的利益联结机制,应该充分利用计提公积金这一手段,不允许社员退社时退回公积金或许是有利于土地股份合作社内部形成“风险共担”机制的一个可尝试的方法。