Naked reverse: unexpected plays for exceptional results

Following the herd is easy when it comes to business ventures. But if you really want to start something new, you must first carefully think it through. Learn some ways to do that before you set out on a new path.     

The Media and Genetically Modified Foods: Evidence in Support of Social Amplification of Risk

Empirical examinations of the "social amplification of risk" framework are rare, partly because of the difficulties in predicting when conditions likely to result in amplification effects will occur. This means that it is difficult to examine changes in risk perception that are contemporaneous with increases and/or decreases in social or media discussion of the risks associated with a particular risk event. However, the collection of attitude data before, during, and after the increased reporting of the risks of genetically modified food in the United Kingdom (spring 1999) has demonstrated that people's risk perceptions do increase and decrease in line with what might be expected upon examination of the amplification and attenuation mechanisms integral to the framework. Perceptions of benefit, however, appeared to be permanently depressed by negative reporting about genetically modified food. Trust in regulatory institutions with responsibility for protecting the public was not affected. It was concluded that the social amplification of risk framework is a useful framework for beginning to explain the potential impact on risk perceptions of a risk event, particularly if that risk event is presented to the public as a new hazard occurring in a crisis context.     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.     

Palliative and curative care nurses' attitudes toward dying and death in the hospital setting

This paper explores the errors involved in the approximation of both the maximum and sum of two independent Beta random variables, each by another Beta random variable. The principal area of application is the time analysis of PERT networks, and the results are interpreted and discussed in terms of this application. The error was found to be acceptable for the greater part of the range of the parameters involved. The results will help practitioners estimate the mean and standard deviation of the completion time of PERT networks.     

Bridging the awful gap between strategy and action

This article describes the lessons learned from a study carried out within British Telecommunications as part of the author's doctoral research programme. It was found that strategy was formulated and implemented, with direct action taken and resources commited, by Divisional managers at all three organizational levels in BT so that implementation did not always follow the lines intended by the HQ strategic planners. Implementation was found to be an interactive rather than a rational/sequential process. Marked variations in practice were observed and explanations for these are offered. The relative success of the strategies differed widely, both overall and within the divisional field units. The manner of implementation and factors managers perceived to help and hinder it were studied. Success or failure was felt to hinge on getting a few basics right: resources, organizational ‘fit’, historical performance and the expectations it generated (track record), information and support, market acceptance, technical competence, consistent goals and top management support.     

Is Managed Mental Health Treatment Psychotherapy?

The corporate takeover of mental health treatment has dramatically affected mental health treatment. Two essential constituents of psychotherapeutic process, the relationship between patient and therapist and the special communicative process associated with a talking treatment, have been significantly compromised. Therapists and patients are being forced to consider whether in the absence of confidentiality, self determination, and a secure treatment partnership managed mental health care can be called psychotherapy. Drawing on several detailed sessions from the managed treatment of a young woman, the writer concludes that the answer is no.     

Character-Based Determinants of Trust in Leaders

Trust is a prominent determinant of effective interpersonal relationships, group process, and organizational development. However, for leaders and managers, trust building is often problematic. The aim of this article is to contribute to a growing understanding of the way in which individual managers can develop trust in organizations, particularly those defined by medium to high risk. The article presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the nature of trust at work. Building on the results of an earlier study, use is made of the facet-theoretical approach to generate a definitional framework of trust, which focuses on the characteristics of the trusted person that contribute to the development of trust. Using items developed on the basis of a mapping sentence, hypotheses regarding the relations between the definitional framework and empirical observations were tested through smallest space analysis (SSA) of data collected from a sample of 398 bank and hospital employees. The results demonstrate strong support for the definitional system and show a clear association with results of prior research that identify perceptions of ability, integrity, fairness, and openness as key determinants of trust. The empirical structure clearly reflects the attitudinal nature of interpersonal trust at work and the items empirically distinguish distinct character-based components of trust.     

Lottery winners: The myth and reality

This paper is based on a study of 576 lottery winners from 12 states. Respondents to a mailed questionnaire included winners of sums ranging from $50,000 to millions. The data indicate that popular myths and stereotypes about winners were inaccurate. Specifically, winners came from various education and employment backgrounds and they were clustered in the higher income categories than the general population indicating that lotteries might not be as regressive as popularly believed. Winners were older than the general population and more often male (60 versus 40%). There was significant association between the amount a person won and his or her work behavior. Individuals with psychologically and financially rewarding jobs continued working regardless of the amount they won, while people who worked in low paying semi-skilled and unskilled jobs were far more likely to quit the labor force. Contrary to popular beliefs, winners did not engage in lavish spending sprees and instead gave large amounts of their winnings to their children and their churches. The most common expenditures were for houses, automobiles and trips. It was found that overall, winners were well-adjusterd, secure and generally happy from the experience.This study was funded by a grant from the Institute for Socioeconomic Studies in White Plains, New York.     

Statistical and Historical Analyses of Nations Which Deviate From the Size-Density Law

We examine nations which deviate significantly from the ?2/3 sizedensity slope previously observed for the aggregated political subdivisions of 98 modern nations and previously derived from the theory of timeminimization. We correct Stephan’s original list of deviant nations, demonstrate that all slopes more negative than ?2/3 were due to the erroneous inclusion of cities in the original data sets, develop a theory to account for the less negative deviant slopes, and test the theory both through statistical manipulation of current data and through analysis of available historical data.